Small Craft Advisory 43, NWS Green Bay, WI

222 
WHUS73 KGRB 111632
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1132 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...

.GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
WILL CREATE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THIS EVENING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-120045-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0043.160612T0000Z-160612T1500Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
1132 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS THIS 
  EVENING...THEN VEER NORTHEAST. A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE 
  POSSIBLE. 

* WAVES...WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

437 
WHUS73 KGRB 112020
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
320 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. 

LMZ521-522-541>543-120430-
/O.EXT.KGRB.SC.Y.0043.160612T0000Z-160612T0900Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
320 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS THIS
  EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY VEER
  NORTHEAST FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT THIS EVENING. SOME 5 FOOT WAVES
  POSSIBLE ON LAKE MICHIGAN. WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3
  OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

BERSCH

473 
WHUS73 KGRB 120154
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
854 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-120900-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-160612T0900Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
854 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING...WITH
  GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE. 

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FT THIS EVENING. SOME 5 FOOT WAVES POSSIBLE ON
  LAKE MICHIGAN. WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

BERSCH

204 
WHUS73 KGRB 120844
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
344 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED...

LMZ521-522-541>543-120945-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-160612T0900Z/
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM  OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI-
ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI-TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
344 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 



$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1148 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016

Latest radar trends show line of convection extending from eastern
Lake Superior southeast to near MSP around mid-afternoon. Thus far
convection along this line has remained fairly tame, especially
the portion of the line over southern Minnesota where CAP appears
to be hindering convective development. Convection is still
expected to become more robust over far NW Wisconsin in the next
hour or two, in the vicinity of the approaching cold front, where
the front is likely becoming locally enhanced by the Lake Superior
influence and where upper dynamics is stronger ahead of
approaching shortwave impulse. Northern Wisconsin is also in a
more favorable deep layer shear environmet with values in the 30
to 35 kt range. Although latest model guidance has back off a bit
on the intensity of the convection into early evening, still feel
convection will continue to intensify and rapidly grow upscale in
quasilinear MCS, then drop southeast across the forecast area
early this evening. Radar trends and most recent model guidance
also suggests a faster progression of the convection through the
area this evening. Now expect MCS to be south of the forecast area
by 04 UTC. Combination of deep layer shear and instablity still
suggest portion of the MCS to produce large hail and damaging
winds. Also potential for an isolated tornado especially early
where more discrete convection will exist, particulary near the
triple point over northwest Wisconsin where more favorable low-
level shear profiles exist and perhaps near warm front pushing
into northwest Wisconsin. Will continuie to monitor closely next
few hours.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Friday
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016

Heat/humidity to linger Saturday until CAA kicks in after post-
frontal trof moves through during day. Small chance for a storm
to develop along surface trof in the afternoon across east-central
Wisconsin. Winds quickly shift N-NNE with backdoor cold front
potential late in day near Lake Michigan.

A little more confidence in long term as medium- and long- range
models come into better agreement, particularly the 10/12Z GFS and
ECMWF. Even a meandering cut-off low is forecast by both models to
affect Wisconsin by the end of the forecast period.

Until then, area is just east of upper level ridge axis. Occasional
ripples over the ridge will bring chances for convection.

Temperature forecast for this period is a blend of best performing
guidance.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016

Significant rainfall during the evening, light winds, and few low
or mid clouds will bring areas of fog to the forecast area overnight.
Most locations will start out VFR at 06z but TAF sites will probably
see occasional IFR visibility in fog develop overnight. After fog
burns off in the morning skies should be mostly clear for Saturday.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......MG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
242 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-111945-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
242 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF
EASTCENTRRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY...BUT THE PROBABLITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MANITOWOC TO WISCONSIN RAPIDS.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS SATURDAY...MAINLY DUE TO QUESTIONS ABOUT THE
AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. IF STORMS TONIGHT REMAIN LIMITED IN
COVERAGE...THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS FOR
STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
IF PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON SATURDAY.

STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-111945-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
242 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. SOME STROMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ON LAKE
MICHIGAN, AND MAY CAUSE NAVIGATION PROBLEMS FOR BOATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ESB/JKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
949 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KESHENA                 44.88N 88.63W
06/10/2016                   MENOMINEE          WI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 47. REPORT RELAYED BY WLUK-TV.

&&

BERSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1236 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND GST     SHERWOOD                44.17N 88.27W
06/10/2016  M54 MPH          CALUMET            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SAC