Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
705 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016

Latest radar trends show line of convection extending from eastern
Lake Superior southeast to near MSP around mid-afternoon. Thus far
convection along this line has remained fairly tame, especially
the portion of the line over southern Minnesota where CAP appears
to be hindering convective development. Convection is still
expected to become more robust over far NW Wisconsin in the next
hour or two, in the vicinity of the approaching cold front, where
the front is likely becoming locally enhanced by the Lake Superior
influence and where upper dynamics is stronger ahead of
approaching shortwave impulse. Northern Wisconsin is also in a
more favorable deep layer shear environmet with values in the 30
to 35 kt range. Although latest model guidance has back off a bit
on the intensity of the convection into early evening, still feel
convection will continue to intensify and rapidly grow upscale in
quasilinear MCS, then drop southeast across the forecast area
early this evening. Radar trends and most recent model guidance
also suggests a faster progression of the convection through the
area this evening. Now expect MCS to be south of the forecast area
by 04 UTC. Combination of deep layer shear and instablity still
suggest portion of the MCS to produce large hail and damaging
winds. Also potential for an isolated tornado especially early
where more discrete convection will exist, particulary near the
triple point over northwest Wisconsin where more favorable low-
level shear profiles exist and perhaps near warm front pushing
into northwest Wisconsin. Will continuie to monitor closely next
few hours.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Friday
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016

Heat/humidity to linger Saturday until CAA kicks in after post-
frontal trof moves through during day. Small chance for a storm
to develop along surface trof in the afternoon across east-central
Wisconsin. Winds quickly shift N-NNE with backdoor cold front
potential late in day near Lake Michigan.

A little more confidence in long term as medium- and long- range
models come into better agreement, particularly the 10/12Z GFS and
ECMWF. Even a meandering cut-off low is forecast by both models to
affect Wisconsin by the end of the forecast period.

Until then, area is just east of upper level ridge axis. Occasional
ripples over the ridge will bring chances for convection.

Temperature forecast for this period is a blend of best performing
guidance.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 705 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016

Low confidence in details of the TAFs this evening. A line of
thunderstorms moved into the forecast area this afternoon and
extended from Door County to eastern Marathon County to western
Waushara County shortly before 00Z. The storms produced wind
damage and some large hail as they made their way across the area.
Timing of storms is a bit uncertain with an outflow boundary
moving from north to south while storms continued to trek
eastward. Have included wind gusts to around 40 knots at TAF
locations where the storms have yet not reached. Otherwise lower
clouds should depart with the storms but there is some fog
potential overnight.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......MG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
242 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-111945-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
242 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF
EASTCENTRRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY...BUT THE PROBABLITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MANITOWOC TO WISCONSIN RAPIDS.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS SATURDAY...MAINLY DUE TO QUESTIONS ABOUT THE
AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. IF STORMS TONIGHT REMAIN LIMITED IN
COVERAGE...THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS FOR
STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
IF PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON SATURDAY.

STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-111945-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
242 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. SOME STROMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ON LAKE
MICHIGAN, AND MAY CAUSE NAVIGATION PROBLEMS FOR BOATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ESB/JKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
647 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     HAIL             HOGARTY                 45.03N 89.31W
06/10/2016  M1.00 INCH       MARATHON           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
652 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NW KEENE              44.39N 89.49W
06/10/2016  E60 MPH          PORTAGE            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ON I-39. BLOWING DIRT/DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY. POSSIBLE
            GUSTNADO OBSERVED.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
704 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

WIZ022-110045-
DOOR WI-
704 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DOOR COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 704 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR JACKSONPORT TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
OCONTO. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STURGEON BAY...JACKSONPORT...EPHRAIM...EGG HARBOR...NEWPORT STATE PARK...
BRUSSELS...BAILEYS HARBOR...SISTER BAY...FORESTVILLE AND CLAY BANKS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4527 8698 4521 8698 4523 8704 4509 8705
      4509 8706 4507 8712 4468 8737 4470 8772
      4486 8753 4487 8752 4485 8753 4489 8743
      4481 8734 4491 8741 4505 8728 4510 8732
      4508 8728 4530 8706 4532 8691
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 279DEG 50KT 4505 8714 4477 8794

MPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
712 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WISCONSIN RAPIDS        44.40N 89.84W
06/10/2016                   WOOD               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AROUND WISCONSIN RAPIDS AREA.
            ALSO TREES DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTY. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
741 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND GST     KESHENA                 44.88N 88.63W
06/10/2016  M47 MPH          MENOMINEE          WI   MESONET

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRESHAM                 44.84N 88.78W
06/10/2016                   SHAWANO            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     CLINTONVILLE            44.61N 88.75W
06/10/2016  E60 MPH          WAUPACA            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
750 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HAIL             2 SE SHAWANO            44.76N 88.56W
06/10/2016  E1.00 INCH       SHAWANO            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&