Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1045 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Cold front has stalled along the southeastern fringes of the
forecast area from Hill City to Gove. It may back up slightly this
afternoon and be the focus for isolated thunderstorm development
with the upper forcing still lagging over the central Rockies. If
a storm does develop...the environment will be conducive for
supercells with strong instability of up to 4000 j/kg and deep
layer shear of around 50kts. The aforementioned shortwave trough
will move out of northeast Colorado this evening and across the
northern tier of counties overnight. Point soundings show up to
2000 j/kg of elevated CAPE with little CIN in areas north of
Interstate 70 between 06z and 12z. High res model guidance shows
widespread qpf in that area. These slightly elevated thunderstorms
will be capable of producing large hail. In addition to the
thunderstorm threat...low level moisture will increase with light
southeasterly winds with areas of fog and low clouds likely
developing. Visibility could drop to less than a mile at times in
patchy dense fog which may linger through the mid morning hours.

The set up for Tuesday afternoon has strong to extreme
instability developing along and north of a Flagler to Tribune
line...most of the forecast area. Deep layer shear will be
slightly lower compared to today, around 40kts, but will be more
than sufficient for supercells. Problem as it has been the last
few days will be relatively weak upper forcing. Most likely
scenario will see isolated to widely scattered storms develop in
the mid to late afternoon hours in northeast Colorado as the next
shortwave emerges onto the plains and begins to move eastward into
the instability axis. Confidence is rather low due to the weak
synoptic scale forcing on the potential for anything more than an
isolated severe threat through Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Going into the extended period...the Tri State region will sit
between a broad h5 ridge over the eastern portion of the
country...with a digging slow moving upper trough building over the
rockies/western half of the country.

With this setup...Tuesday night on thru Wednesday will initially
have a few weak shortwaves move out over the plains region...moving
northeast along the western side of the blocking h5 ridge. Best
lift/dynamics ahead of these shortwaves will put best chances for
precipitation mainly north of Interstate 70...especially in sw
Nebraska.

By midweek...meandering surface boundary sets up in the Central
Plains out ahead of upper trough over the rockies. Models shift this
system eastward late Thursday and over the region thru Friday night
before lifting into north central Nebraska. Remnants of this
boundary do remain heading into the upcoming holiday weekend as
another upper low moves thru the north central rockies. For
precip...do expect an increase in areal coverage of rw/trw potential
as upper trough shifts eastward over the region...giving way to wrap-
around moisture going into the weekend. This moisture will be
enhanced by boundary remnants allowing for continuation of trw for
the weekend.

For temps...with a general sw upper flow over the region...looking
for near to above normal numbers thru the week as decent waa over
the area will only be hampered by extent of cloud cover/precip.
Overall...daytime highs will range from the mid 70s thru the mid
80s. coolest period will coincide with the passage of the midweek
upper trough. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s thru the
mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

For KGLD...mvfr cigs expected at or very near taf issuance as
stratus moves in from the southeast with surface winds from the
east near 10kts. sfc based thunderstorms expected around the
terminal as well. Thunderstorm chances decrease around 09z with
stratus and vlifr cigs and/or vis expected through about 17z.
models differ on how fast the stratus lifts north with the nam the
slower and gfs more progressive. Trended toward previous forecast
then favored the gfs which would bring vfr conditions to the
terminal after 21z as winds veer to the southeast near 10kts.

For KMCK...vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through 07z
or so with winds from the east around 5kts. from 08z-11z
thunderstorms possible from the south and west before dissipating
and/or moving northeast away from the terminal. Cigs will lower to
vlifr category. From 12z-18z am expecting vlifr cigs and possibly
vis. From 19z-21z cigs expected to slowly rise to mvfr category
then vfr from 22z through the rest of the taf period with winds
from the east-southeast around 11kts.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
935 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-241200-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
935 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016 /1035 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PRIMARILY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1220 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 AM     HAIL             OAKLEY                  39.13N 100.85W
05/24/2016  M2.00 INCH       LOGAN              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BWARREN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1227 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

COZ090-240715-
YUMA COUNTY CO-
1227 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY UNTIL 115 AM
MDT...

AT 1227 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES NORTH OF ECKLEY...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF YUMA...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALVIN AND WAUNETA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 251 AND 269.

LAT...LON 4044 10207 4019 10206 4012 10269 4032 10271
      4044 10230
TIME...MOT...LOC 0627Z 251DEG 32KT 4026 10256

LOCKHART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
151 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

KSZ016-240730-
GRAHAM KS-
151 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL 230
AM CDT...

AT 150 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORLAND...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HILL CITY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HILL CITY...MORLAND AND PENOKEE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3915 9998 3929 10013 3948 9992 3927 9970
TIME...MOT...LOC 0650Z 230DEG 6KT 3927 9999

LOCKHART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
207 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

KSZ003-004-015-016-240745-
DECATUR KS-NORTON KS-GRAHAM KS-SHERIDAN KS-
207 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GRAHAM...
SOUTHEASTERN DECATUR...SOUTHWESTERN NORTON AND NORTHERN SHERIDAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

AT 207 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTH OF DRESDEN...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF HOXIE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SELDEN...JENNINGS...DRESDEN...NEW ALMELO AND LEOVILLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3946 10038 3945 10059 3959 10066 3974 10020
      3948 10006
TIME...MOT...LOC 0707Z 236DEG 22KT 3953 10037

LOCKHART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
110 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

COZ090-NEZ079-240815-
YUMA COUNTY CO-DUNDY NE-
110 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN YUMA AND
NORTHWESTERN DUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM MDT...

AT 109 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES NORTHEAST OF WRAY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WRAY...ALVIN AND LAIRD.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 240 AND 257.

LAT...LON 4035 10205 4035 10146 4012 10151 3999 10246
      4041 10213 4041 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 0709Z 262DEG 28KT 4022 10207

LOCKHART

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