Severe Thunderstorm Warning 305, NWS Goodland, KS

648 
WWUS53 KGLD 120822
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
222 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016

COC017-120832-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0305.000000T0000Z-160712T0845Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
222 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY
IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3904 10215 3905 10213 3882 10207 3879 10256
      3895 10259
TIME...MOT...LOC 0818Z 255DEG 3KT 3888 10248 

$$

DR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1020 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2016

A shortwave trough will continue pushing a cold front across the CWA
this afternoon and should clear the area to the east as we head into
the evening and overnight hours. Thunderstorms, some severe, could
develop during the afternoon in the eastern and southeastern
portions of the CWA as this cold front slows down. The high res
guidance is pushing this activity further eastward with each
iteration as we head through the day which points toward the
possibility that the strongest activity could potentially form east
of the CWA. May need to adjust PoPs accordingly but will leave at
least a chc for this afternoon. Any storms that form east of Highway
83 will have the potential to produce two inch or greater hail and
damaging wind gusts. High resolution guidance is backing off with
regards to the thunderstorm potential in the northwestern portions
of the CWA as well. I have slgt chc to chc PoPs in the forecast and
will refrain from backing those down due to a dry bias in the recent
high resolution model runs. Today's cold front will stall and fizzle
out in central Kansas on Tuesday with easterly and eventually
southeasterly flow returning to the area throughout the day.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 157 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Best thunderstorm chances will be east of the area Tuesday night
along stalled frontal boundary in central Kansas. However...there
is a weak shortwave trough coming out of Colorado after midnight
which might tap into considerable elevated instability. CIN might
be too much to overcome given the weak forcing...so will only
carry 20 pops for this scenario. On Wednesday the old front will
again be the main focusing mechanism for convection and it will
still be east of the area. There will be only slight chances for
an afternoon thunderstorm in the post frontal upslope flow over
our area associated with a weak shortwave moving through the
northern plains.

Thursday and Friday appear to be the more promising days for
precipitation chances. On Thursday the front will still be
lingering just south of the area with deep easterly upslope fetch
of moisture to the north of it. Better instability will probably
be south of the area but will be enough for at least a slight risk
for severe storms mainly south of Interstate 70. Deep layer shear
will be ample at 40-50kts. The front looks like it will return
north on Friday and be in or near the forecast area. Instability
increases as a result. Shear however decreases to around 30-40kts.
Models generating copious qpf on both days.

The wet pattern may continue into at least the first part of the
weekend although the models not in the best agreement. GFS is the
wetter while the EC shows more upper ridging and less precipitation.
Both models dry out for Sunday and Monday as the southern plains
ridge builds northward.

Temperatures will be above normal Wednesday then near to slightly
below normal Thursday through Saturday...returning to above
normal Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2016

KGLD...vfr conditions expected through the period. A weather
disturbance is currently moving across the area and the terminal
may have a few showers in its vicinity from taf issuance through
07z or so. Another weather disturbance approaches the terminal at
the tail end of the taf period but right now confidence in
precipitation being in the vicinity or at the terminal is too low
to include in forecast. Winds at taf issuance from the northeast
under 10kts steadily veering to the east by 16z then southeast
in the 18z-22z timeframe and continuing through the rest of the
taf period. Not much in the way of cloudiness during the day
Tuesday with some increase in mid clouds from the west during the
evening.

KMCK...vfr conditions expected through the period. Winds will
begin the period from the northwest around 5kts steadily veering
to the east around 15z and southeast by 21z continuing through the
rest of the taf period. Speeds under 10kts. Little if any clouds
during the day Tuesday with possibly an increase in mid level
clouds from the west at the tail end of the taf period.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
840 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-121200-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
840 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 /940 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THESE PERIODS. STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
904 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

COZ091-120315-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
904 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 915 PM MDT...

AT 904 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THURMAN...OR 18 MILES NORTH OF FLAGLER...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN KIT
CARSON COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3957 10315 3957 10296 3937 10301 3943 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 273DEG 35KT 3956 10311

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
156 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016

COZ092-120815-
CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
156 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 215 AM MDT...

AT 155 AM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES WEST OF CHEYENNE WELLS. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHEYENNE WELLS AND FIRSTVIEW.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 147 AND 162.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3894 10263 3901 10219 3879 10221 3875 10263
TIME...MOT...LOC 0755Z 033DEG 1KT 3886 10254

DR