Severe Thunderstorm Warning 304, NWS Goodland, KS

902 
WWUS53 KGLD 120047
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
647 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

COC017-063-120115-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0304.000000T0000Z-160712T0115Z/
KIT CARSON CO-CHEYENNE CO-
647 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN KIT CARSON AND NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 647 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BOYERO...OR 21 MILES SOUTH OF FLAGLER...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILD HORSE AND AROYA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3909 10316 3907 10277 3869 10303 3879 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 281DEG 22KT 3899 10316 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JRM

693 
WWUS53 KGLD 120056
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
656 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

COC017-063-120115-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0304.000000T0000Z-160712T0115Z/
KIT CARSON CO-CHEYENNE CO-
656 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN KIT CARSON AND NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 656 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF
BOYERO...OR 22 MILES SOUTH OF FLAGLER...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILD HORSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3909 10316 3907 10277 3879 10296 3889 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 287DEG 34KT 3897 10309 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JRM

676 
WWUS53 KGLD 120101
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
701 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

COC017-063-120115-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0304.000000T0000Z-160712T0115Z/
KIT CARSON CO-CHEYENNE CO-
701 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN KIT CARSON AND NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 701 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES EAST OF
BOYERO...OR 22 MILES SOUTH OF FLAGLER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN KIT CARSON AND NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3906 10311 3906 10278 3885 10296 3889 10314
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 279DEG 27KT 3897 10304 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JRM

552 
WWUS53 KGLD 120104
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
704 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

COC063-120114-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0304.000000T0000Z-160712T0115Z/
KIT CARSON CO-
704 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3904 10311 3904 10280 3885 10296 3889 10314
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 279DEG 27KT 3897 10301 

$$

COC017-120115-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0304.000000T0000Z-160712T0115Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
704 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 704 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES EAST OF
BOYERO...OR 22 MILES SOUTH OF FLAGLER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 10311 3904 10280 3885 10296 3889 10314
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 279DEG 27KT 3897 10301 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JRM

315 
WWUS53 KGLD 120108
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
708 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

COC017-120118-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0304.000000T0000Z-160712T0115Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
708 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY
IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WILL EXPIRE AT 715 PM MDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL
IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
GOODLAND.

LAT...LON 3904 10311 3904 10280 3885 10296 3889 10314
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 310DEG 23KT 3897 10301 

$$

JRM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
510 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2016

A shortwave trough will continue pushing a cold front across the CWA
this afternoon and should clear the area to the east as we head into
the evening and overnight hours. Thunderstorms, some severe, could
develop during the afternoon in the eastern and southeastern
portions of the CWA as this cold front slows down. The high res
guidance is pushing this activity further eastward with each
iteration as we head through the day which points toward the
possibility that the strongest activity could potentially form east
of the CWA. May need to adjust PoPs accordingly but will leave at
least a chc for this afternoon. Any storms that form east of Highway
83 will have the potential to produce two inch or greater hail and
damaging wind gusts. High resolution guidance is backing off with
regards to the thunderstorm potential in the northwestern portions
of the CWA as well. I have slgt chc to chc PoPs in the forecast and
will refrain from backing those down due to a dry bias in the recent
high resolution model runs. Today's cold front will stall and fizzle
out in central Kansas on Tuesday with easterly and eventually
southeasterly flow returning to the area throughout the day.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 157 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Best thunderstorm chances will be east of the area Tuesday night
along stalled frontal boundary in central Kansas. However...there
is a weak shortwave trough coming out of Colorado after midnight
which might tap into considerable elevated instability. CIN might
be too much to overcome given the weak forcing...so will only
carry 20 pops for this scenario. On Wednesday the old front will
again be the main focusing mechanism for convection and it will
still be east of the area. There will be only slight chances for
an afternoon thunderstorm in the post frontal upslope flow over
our area associated with a weak shortwave moving through the
northern plains.

Thursday and Friday appear to be the more promising days for
precipitation chances. On Thursday the front will still be
lingering just south of the area with deep easterly upslope fetch
of moisture to the north of it. Better instability will probably
be south of the area but will be enough for at least a slight risk
for severe storms mainly south of Interstate 70. Deep layer shear
will be ample at 40-50kts. The front looks like it will return
north on Friday and be in or near the forecast area. Instability
increases as a result. Shear however decreases to around 30-40kts.
Models generating copious qpf on both days.

The wet pattern may continue into at least the first part of the
weekend although the models not in the best agreement. GFS is the
wetter while the EC shows more upper ridging and less precipitation.
Both models dry out for Sunday and Monday as the southern plains
ridge builds northward.

Temperatures will be above normal Wednesday then near to slightly
below normal Thursday through Saturday...returning to above
normal Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 510 PM MDT Mon Jul 11 2016

KGLD...vfr conditions expected through the period. A weather
disturbance will move across the terminal in the 03z-06z timeframe
generating a vcts group with winds from the northeast near 10kts.
After 06z winds start the period from the northeast under 10kts
steadily veering to the east by 16z then southeast around 18z with
speeds remaining under 10kts. Not much if any cloudiness,
especially during the daylight hours Tuesday.

KMCK...vfr conditions expected through the period. Winds will
begin the period from the north near 10kts with a slight backing
to the northwest around 04z before steadily veering to the east
around 15z and southeast by 21z...speeds under 10kts. Only some
mid and high clouds expected tonight with a generally clear sky
during the daylight hours Tuesday.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1019 AM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-121630-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1019 AM MDT MON JUL 11 2016 /1119 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FRONT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL GREATER
THAN 2 INCHES AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. A SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH WOULD
BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
MAY APPROACH 105 EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THESE PERIODS. STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
629 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

COZ092-120045-
CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
629 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 645 PM MDT...

AT 625 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTHWEST OF BOYERO...OR 23 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FLAGLER...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

IF THIS STORM MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF GOLBALL
SIZE AND STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN
KIT CARSON COUNTY BY 7 PM MDT.

THOSE TRAVELLING WEST BOUND ON US HIGHWAY 40 FROM WILD HORSE TO HUGO
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM AND SHOULD PREPARE FOR IMMINENT
DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 10316 3904 10312 3897 10285 3866 10294
      3879 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 299DEG 38KT 3901 10333

JRM