Severe Thunderstorm Warning 282, NWS Goodland, KS

491 
WWUS53 KGLD 070648
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
148 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

NEC145-070700-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0282.000000T0000Z-160707T0700Z/
RED WILLOW NE-
148 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN RED WILLOW COUNTY...

AT 147 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF
LEBANON...OR 16 MILES EAST OF MCCOOK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN RED WILLOW COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4006 10019 4006 10042 4021 10043 4025 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0647Z 261DEG 23KT 4015 10031 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

DLF

324 
WWUS53 KGLD 070657
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
157 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

NEC145-070706-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0282.000000T0000Z-160707T0700Z/
RED WILLOW NE-
157 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN RED WILLOW COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 200 AM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4006 10019 4006 10042 4021 10043 4025 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0651Z 265DEG 20KT 4015 10031 

$$

DLF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1127 PM MDT WED JUL 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2016

An area of convection has re-developed across Nebraska counties
moving east and is skirting the northern tier of Kansas counties.
Have added scattered showers and thunderstorms to overnight
forecast as a result. At this time anticipating most activity
will be along and north of highway 36 and will remain sub-severe
but will continue to monitor radar trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Tonight...models bringing a weather disturbance and increase in 700-
300mb moisture into far eastern Colorado right now then move it
quickly across the remainder of the area during the evening hours.
Precipitable water values are quite a bit lower compared to
yesterday so should have a bit less heavy rain/flash flood threat.
Primary threats will be strong outflow winds and large hail. Winds
veer to the northwest by sunrise Thursday morning across nearly all
of the area as some cooler air moves in. Low temperatures range in
the mid 50s to low 60s for far eastern Colorado and low to upper 60s
(possibly 70) east of the CO/KS border...mildest in the Norton to
Hill City areas. One item to watch is possibility of stratus moving
in from the northeast reaching a line from Trenton to near Hill
City. NAM most AGGRESSIVE while the GFS shows nothing of it.

Thursday...outside of possible morning stratus across the far east
should see a sunny sky. Northwest winds in the 10 to 15 mph range
with a few higher gusts expected along with slightly cooler
temperatures by some 5 degrees or so for many. Further south and
east similar temperatures expected compared to today (Wednesday) if
not a degree or two hotter. Currently have low to mid 90s for far
eastern Colorado with mid to upper 90s east of the border. Could see
a few century readings around Hill City. No precipitation
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 207 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2016

The models are showing many days with precipitation/storms during
the extended period. Beginning with Thursday night, it is expected
to be dry due to the fairly zonal upper level flow, then a ridge
begins to move in from the west. To note, the new model run of the
European has some PoPs across portions of the CWA; but I am not sure
that will play out to be correct, seeing that every other model has
it dry. One thing on Thursday night into Friday is that a cold front
is going to move over the CWA from the north and should dry the
region out and bring cooler temperatures Friday. The ridge will
begin to move into the CWA Thursday night/Friday and will stay over
the region through Saturday; then another trough beings to move
towards the area.

Friday and Saturday are looking to be fairly similar with
precipitation chances. On Friday, chances for precipitation will
mainly be in the evening and overnight hours; with slight chances in
the afternoon. The NAM shows an embedded shortwave at 700 mb that
will move over the region with CAPEs around 2500-3000 J/kg, bulk
shear up to 50 kts and 850-500 mb lapse rates at 7+ J/km will create
a favorable environment for potential storm development. The GFS
shows the precipitation more widespread in the overnight period. For
Saturday, there could be some lingering precipitation in the morning
due to the exiting shortwave but the main focus will be in the
evening and overnight hours when another shortwave moves over the
region. The GFS and European agree for the most part but the
European has more widespread precipitation starting earlier around
00Z, whereas the GFS has it starting around 06Z. Overall though,
CAPEs are 2500-3000 J/kg and 850-500 mb lapse rates are 7+ C/km
(bulk shear is not impressive though), these will help with the
potential for storm development over the region.

Sunday, the ridge is starting to move east out of the region and a
trough is starting to move towards the CWA from the northwest. As
the trough gets closer it could bring some precipitation to the
region in the afternoon and evening, but this all depends on the
placement of the trough. The current model runs disagree on
placement; the European is a little more progressive than the GFS
which allows for some PoP chances earlier in the evening.

Monday, could see some storms on the eastern side of the CWA as a
frontal boundary moves over that area from the low pressure to the
north. Timing and exact location for storm chances are still
questionable at this time; it will primarily have to do with the
placement of the low pressure. The GFS has it over east central
Montana and the Euro has it more in northeast Montana; but both
models have precipitation in the east at this time.

Tuesday and Wednesday are up in the air at this point. This is
because the GFS has the region dry but the European has PoP
potential each day due to a ridge moving into the region a little
quicker. The European also has shortwaves moving over the region
allowing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to move north into the
area. Kept slight PoPs on Tuesday for now but will keep an eye on
it.

Temperatures are expected to drop Friday into the upper 80s to low
90s but will increase into the low to mid 90s for the remainder of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 2016

KGLD: VFR through TAF period. Overnight convection is expected to
remain north and east of terminal. Surface winds will be southeast
for most of the night then become west and northwest Thursday
morning.

KMCK: VFR through the TAF period with scattered shra/tsra through
10Z with cigs AOA FL050. After 10Z mainly scattered mid clouds
around FL100. Surface winds will remain light and variable
overnight becoming northwest Thursday morning.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...DLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1035 AM MDT WED JUL 6 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-071200-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1035 AM MDT WED JUL 6 2016 /1135 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRODUCING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
816 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NNW STRATTON NE       40.25N 101.27W
07/06/2016  M58 MPH          HITCHCOCK          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TLYNCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
921 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

KSZ001-002-070230-
CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS KS-
921 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RAWLINS AND
NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 930 PM
CDT...

AT 921 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF MCDONALD...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BENKELMAN...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEARDSLEY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3999 10108 3980 10119 3981 10158 4000 10152
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 280DEG 23KT 3990 10142

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
932 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

KSZ002-070245-
RAWLINS KS-
932 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RAWLINS COUNTY UNTIL
945 PM CDT...

AT 931 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES NORTHEAST OF MCDONALD...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ATWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEARDSLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3999 10108 3980 10119 3981 10140 4000 10141
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 269DEG 43KT 3995 10124

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
900 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE MCCOOK             40.22N 100.59W
07/06/2016  M62 MPH          RED WILLOW         NE   ASOS

            MEASURED AT MCCOOK AIRPORT

&&

JMARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1054 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

NEZ081-070415-
RED WILLOW NE-
1054 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RED WILLOW COUNTY
UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1054 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LEBANON...OR 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCCOOK...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEBANON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4000 10019 4000 10035 4001 10040 4015 10036
      4017 10019
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 268DEG 41KT 4007 10032

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1231 AM MDT THU JUL 7 2016

NEZ079>081-070730-
DUNDY NE-RED WILLOW NE-HITCHCOCK NE-
1231 AM MDT THU JUL 7 2016

AT 1227 AM MDT/127 AM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A NARROW
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING EAST TO WEST FROM NEAR
BENKELMAN TO SOUTH OF INDIANOLA. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING VERY
SLOWLY EAST AND PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS,
MAINLY OVER HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCCOOK...BENKELMAN...TRENTON...CULBERTSON...INDIANOLA...STRATTON AND
BARTLEY.

LAT...LON 4004 10160 4023 10161 4026 10020 4006 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0627Z 265DEG 38KT 4012 10140

DLF