Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Goodland, KS

784 
WGUS63 KGLD 010247
FFAGLD

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
847 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

.A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS STORM
INTENSITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK. RECENT RAINFALL HAS SATURATED
SOILS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
NEEDED.

COZ090>092-KSZ001-013-014-027-028-041-042-011000-
/O.CON.KGLD.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160701T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-SHERMAN-
THOMAS-WALLACE-LOGAN-GREELEY-WICHITA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YUMA...WRAY...BURLINGTON...ARAPAHOE...
CHEYENNE WELLS...ST. FRANCIS...BIRD CITY...GOODLAND...COLBY...
SHARON SPRINGS...OAKLEY...TRIBUNE...LEOTI
847 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016 /947 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM MDT /5 AM CDT/
FRIDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF COLORADO AND KANSAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN COLORADO...CHEYENNE COUNTY...KIT CARSON COUNTY AND 
  YUMA COUNTY. IN KANSAS...CHEYENNE...GREELEY...LOGAN... 
  SHERMAN...THOMAS...WALLACE AND WICHITA. 

* UNTIL 4 AM MDT /5 AM CDT/ FRIDAY

* EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED 
  TO FALL ON WET SOILS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. 

* FLASH FLOODING COULD WASH OUT LOCAL ROADS... PARTICULARLY IN
  RURAL AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO HIGHER
GROUND SHOULD FLASH FLOODING OCCUR.

&&

$$

443 
WGUS63 KGLD 010554
FFAGLD

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1154 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001-013-014-027-028-041-042-010700-
/O.CAN.KGLD.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-160701T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-SHERMAN-
THOMAS-WALLACE-LOGAN-GREELEY-WICHITA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YUMA...WRAY...BURLINGTON...ARAPAHOE...
CHEYENNE WELLS...ST. FRANCIS...BIRD CITY...GOODLAND...COLBY...
SHARON SPRINGS...OAKLEY...TRIBUNE...LEOTI
1154 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016 /1254 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF COLORADO AND KANSAS HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AND THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1152 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Today-tonight...another batch of moisture in the 700-300mb layer is
forecast to move into the Tri-state area from the west this
afternoon with a slight decrease in coverage tonight. Precipitable
water values also increase with forecast values of 1.4 to 1.8 inches
by 00z Friday with nearly 2 inches across the east around midnight
then 1.3 to 1.8 inches (west to east) Friday morning. So with that
said am currently thinking that most of the area will be
precipitation free this morning with an increase in chances and
coverage during the afternoon. Chances further increase across the
east during the evening before decreasing after midnight. High
temperatures today should range from the low 80s in the northwest
(Yuma) to the upper 80s to around 90 from McCook to Hill City to
Tribune. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Friday-Friday night...GFS/NAM/SREF bring a bit of drier air aloft
into the area during the morning hours but below it lower levels are
rather saturated with NAM and lesser extent the GFS showing boundary
layer humidity rather high. Best chance of precip will be along and
north of the interstate. For the afternoon models showing another
batch of moisture moving into far eastern Colorado from the west.
This batch continues to move east during the evening with some
slightly drier air moving in from the south/southwest. Precipitable
water values remain in the 1.3 to 1.8 inch range during the day with
a slight increase during the night. As a result am ramping of
precipitation chances during the evening through early overnight
hours. High temperature forecast will be challenging given the
extensive low level moisture which will likely create considerable
cloudiness. May be a bit high with my low 70 to around 80 degree
high temperature forecast as the NAM (only model) a bit cooler with
low 60s to low 70s. Low temperatures again in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Saturday-Saturday night...A bit of drier air aloft tries to push its
way into the far northwest portion of the area during the afternoon
as an upper trough moves through. For the nighttime hours the drier
air aloft continues east/southeast nearly clearing the forecast area
by sunrise Sunday morning. Will advertise slowly decreasing
precipitation chances from northwest to southeast through the
period. The lower levels of the atmosphere remain nearly saturated
which will limit convective potential and strongly impact afternoon
temperature forecast. Have gone with afternoon temperatures in
the low to upper 70s which may be optimistic for some, especially
where clouds and precipitation linger longer in the day. Low
temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

H5 trough axis moves east on Sunday and pulls the better rain
chances with it. PoPs remain in the eastern portions of the CWA
through the afternoon with an isolated thunderstorm or two possible
elsewhere. Another weak shortwave and associated axis of instability
will move across the region Monday with slgt chc to chc PoPs mainly
during the afternoon to early evening. Tuesday we will see good
moisture transport at the 850mb level out of the south which will
combine with ample instability during the afternoon and early
evening to trigger thunderstorm development in the presence of weak
forcing. For Wednesday and Thursday, weak shortwave ridge builds and
moves east. This will serve to cut off the moisture flow at the
850mb to 700mb level and dry things out across the CWA. There will
be instability in the region; however, with little forcing there
will be little to no chance of thunderstorm development. The global
models are both highlighting the beginnings of a monsoonal type
trough development in the southwest late in the extended period
which will increase the PoPs once more but will need to see better
consistency before committing to higher rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM MDT Thu Jun 30 2016

VFR conditions and no precipitation is expected this afternoon.
That changes this evening as an upper level disturbance moves
across the region. Am anticipating a large complex/line of
storms to move across the High Plains this evening into tomorrow
morning. Storms will move slowly, may provide a few stronger wind
gusts, and produce heavy rains and reduced visibility. Storms
reach KGLD first and KMCK a few hours afterwards. Behind the
storms, am expecting some stratus and fog development due to a
richly moist airmass. Many forecast soundings and guidance members
indicate this potential. Forecast IFR conditions at KGLD and MVFR
at KMCK. Can't rule out potential LIFR conditions either.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1022 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-011630-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1022 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016 /1122 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO FORECAST WITH
THESE STORMS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN...PARTICULARLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT RECENTLY OBSERVED HEAVY RAIN OR OBSERVE TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE REGION. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FLASH FLOODING
AS A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.