Severe Thunderstorm Warning 306, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
417 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

The bulk of the precipitation with our current storm system will
once again miss most of our forecast area to the east.
Thunderstorms have formed this afternoon along the cool front from
near Aurora down to Nelson Nebraska. Initially this afternoon storms
may be a little more isolated or in the form of a broken line.
However, given the shear profile these storms should quickly
evolve into a larger scale line that will quickly track northeast
out of our forecast area into eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas
by around 6 pm.

At 3 pm, low level shear is rather uni-directional, but low level
speed shear is fairly impressive with 0-1 km bulk shear around 30
kts and 0-1 km helicity at over 200 M2/S2. Instability is fairly
marginal across Nebraska, but looks better over Kansas. Can not
rule out a tornado early on before storms form into a line given
the strong low level wind shear.

Conditions quickly dry out behind the cold front and with the
lower dewpoints could see lows falling into the 30s across our far
western/northwestern zones by dawn Wednesday morning. Have kept
patchy frost out of the forecast for now, but can not rule out a
little patchy frost in low areas around Ord, Lexington, and
Cambridge.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

We will have a quick moving shortwave trough tracking across the
central plains on Thursday. This will bring a strong cold front
through the area and a chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms. At this time, the precipitation appears to be more
spotty and not overly heavy.

The first frost of the season will be possible primarily for areas
around the Tri-cities and to the north and west Thursday
night/Friday morning and again Friday night/Saturday morning.
Those with tender outdoor vegetation will want to keep an eye on
the forecast for those two time periods.

After a cool down into the 50s and lower 60s on Thursday and
Friday, we should rebound back into the upper 60s and 70s by the
weekend.

Overall, rain chances through this period are low to none.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

The cool front is through KEAR and thus the wind is now
northwesterly and any rain will likely be east of KEAR through the
remainder of the period. The front at 1 pm is basically located
right along hwy 281 and thus there have been some rain showers in
and around KGRI. Rain showers will likely be east of KGRI by 5 pm
and likely even sooner than that. Expect improving ceilings once
the front tracks east of KGRI. The wind will be light through the
next 24 hrs.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
348 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

KSZ006-007-018-019-NEZ040-041-047>049-062>064-075>077-085>087-
052100-
SMITH-JEWELL-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-GREELEY-NANCE-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-
HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
348 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF YORK WHERE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS, WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH, AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS
THAT FORM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

PATCHY FROST IS FORECAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST SHOULD BE NEAR AND
NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

KSZ005-017-NEZ039-046-060-061-072>074-082>084-052100-
PHILLIPS-ROOKS-VALLEY-SHERMAN-DAWSON-BUFFALO-GOSPER-PHELPS-
KEARNEY-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
348 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS
THAT FORM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

PATCHY FROST IS FORECAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST SHOULD BE NEAR AND
NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

WESELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
452 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HAIL             CARLETON                40.30N 97.67W
10/04/2016  E0.88 INCH       THAYER             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL STARTING TO COVER THE GROUND.
            ALSO 40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

MANGELS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>