Alert archive / Nebraska / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 305, NWS Hastings, NE

October 4, 2016Fillmore County, Thayer County, Nebraska

NWS Hastings, NE issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 4, 2016, 4:58 PM CDT for Fillmore County, Thayer County, Nebraska. It was in force for 47 min. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Oct 4, 2016, 4:58 PM CDT (21:58 UTC)
Expired: Oct 4, 2016, 5:45 PM CDT
In force: 47 min
Issued by: NWS Hastings, NE
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Fillmore County, NE, Thayer County, NE

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Oct 4, 5:06 PM CDT	HAIL 1	Bruning, NE	QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN BRUNING.
Oct 4, 5:11 PM CDT	HAIL 1.75	Bruning, NE	QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.
Oct 4, 5:11 PM CDT	HAIL 2	Bruning, NE	MOSTLY QUARTER SIZED HAIL BUT A FEW 2 INCH STONES MIXED IN.
Oct 4, 5:20 PM CDT	HAIL 2	Bruning, NE	MOSTLY QUARTER SIZED HAIL BUT A FEW 2 INCH STONES MIXED IN.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 4 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 8 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1039 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 288 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 252 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

901 
WUUS53 KGID 042158
SVRGID
NEC059-169-042245-
/O.NEW.KGID.SV.W.0305.161004T2158Z-161004T2245Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
458 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN FILLMORE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
  NORTHEASTERN THAYER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 457 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM STRANG TO NEAR BRUNING TO CARLETON...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

  HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
           WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GENEVA...EXETER...MILLIGAN...BRUNING...OHIOWA...CARLETON...
  BELVIDERE AND STRANG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

INTENSE THUNDERSTORM LINES CAN PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IT IS BEST TO MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. THESE STORMS MAY CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY
AND SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

LAT...LON 4027 9737 4021 9769 4044 9768 4070 9741
      4070 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 214DEG 41KT 4044 9758 4037 9759 4029 9766 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ROSSI

1 follow-up statement

794 
WWUS53 KGID 042215
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
515 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

NEC059-169-042245-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0305.000000T0000Z-161004T2245Z/
FILLMORE NE-THAYER NE-
515 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN FILLMORE AND NORTHEASTERN THAYER COUNTIES...

AT 514 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR MILLIGAN TO NEAR STRANG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL
         BRUNING AT 5:11 PM CDT. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EXETER...MILLIGAN...BRUNING...OHIOWA AND STRANG. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

INTENSE THUNDERSTORM LINES CAN PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IT IS BEST TO MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. THESE STORMS MAY CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY
AND SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

LAT...LON 4034 9737 4029 9746 4025 9763 4045 9763
      4070 9741 4070 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 220DEG 31KT 4048 9742 4039 9756 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ROSSI

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 4, 4:17 PM CDT, 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 4, 4:17 PM CDT, 41 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
417 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

The bulk of the precipitation with our current storm system will
once again miss most of our forecast area to the east.
Thunderstorms have formed this afternoon along the cool front from
near Aurora down to Nelson Nebraska. Initially this afternoon storms
may be a little more isolated or in the form of a broken line.
However, given the shear profile these storms should quickly
evolve into a larger scale line that will quickly track northeast
out of our forecast area into eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas
by around 6 pm.

At 3 pm, low level shear is rather uni-directional, but low level
speed shear is fairly impressive with 0-1 km bulk shear around 30
kts and 0-1 km helicity at over 200 M2/S2. Instability is fairly
marginal across Nebraska, but looks better over Kansas. Can not
rule out a tornado early on before storms form into a line given
the strong low level wind shear.

Conditions quickly dry out behind the cold front and with the
lower dewpoints could see lows falling into the 30s across our far
western/northwestern zones by dawn Wednesday morning. Have kept
patchy frost out of the forecast for now, but can not rule out a
little patchy frost in low areas around Ord, Lexington, and
Cambridge.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

We will have a quick moving shortwave trough tracking across the
central plains on Thursday. This will bring a strong cold front
through the area and a chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms. At this time, the precipitation appears to be more
spotty and not overly heavy.

The first frost of the season will be possible primarily for areas
around the Tri-cities and to the north and west Thursday
night/Friday morning and again Friday night/Saturday morning.
Those with tender outdoor vegetation will want to keep an eye on
the forecast for those two time periods.

After a cool down into the 50s and lower 60s on Thursday and
Friday, we should rebound back into the upper 60s and 70s by the
weekend.

Overall, rain chances through this period are low to none.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

The cool front is through KEAR and thus the wind is now
northwesterly and any rain will likely be east of KEAR through the
remainder of the period. The front at 1 pm is basically located
right along hwy 281 and thus there have been some rain showers in
and around KGRI. Rain showers will likely be east of KGRI by 5 pm
and likely even sooner than that. Expect improving ceilings once
the front tracks east of KGRI. The wind will be light through the
next 24 hrs.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 4, 3:48 PM CDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
348 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

KSZ006-007-018-019-NEZ040-041-047>049-062>064-075>077-085>087-
052100-
SMITH-JEWELL-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-GREELEY-NANCE-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-
HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
348 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF YORK WHERE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS, WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH, AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS
THAT FORM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

PATCHY FROST IS FORECAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST SHOULD BE NEAR AND
NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

KSZ005-017-NEZ039-046-060-061-072>074-082>084-052100-
PHILLIPS-ROOKS-VALLEY-SHERMAN-DAWSON-BUFFALO-GOSPER-PHELPS-
KEARNEY-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
348 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS
THAT FORM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

PATCHY FROST IS FORECAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST SHOULD BE NEAR AND
NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

WESELY

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 4, 3:26 PM CDT, 1 hour 32 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
326 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

NEZ076-077-086-087-042115-
FILLMORE NE-CLAY NE-THAYER NE-NUCKOLLS NE-
326 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NUCKOLLS...EASTERN CLAY...
SOUTHWESTERN FILLMORE AND WESTERN THAYER COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 326 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SUPERIOR...OR 29 MILES NORTHWEST OF BELLEVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 45
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GENEVA...SUPERIOR...SUTTON...HARVARD...CLAY CENTER...DESHLER...
EDGAR...NELSON...FAIRFIELD...SHICKLEY...DAVENPORT...HARDY...RUSKIN...
CARLETON...DEWEESE...OAK...ONG...SARONVILLE...STRANG AND NORA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4001 9773 4000 9797 4007 9822 4068 9810
      4056 9749
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 201DEG 38KT 4010 9806

GUERRERO

Local storm report, Oct 4, 4:52 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
452 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HAIL             CARLETON                40.30N 97.67W
10/04/2016  E0.88 INCH       THAYER             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL STARTING TO COVER THE GROUND.
            ALSO 40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

MANGELS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Hastings, NE issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 4, 2:46 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GID	Polk	29 min
Oct 4, 2:59 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GID	Clay	31 min
Oct 4, 3:28 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GID	Polk	32 min
Oct 4, 3:38 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GID	Clay	37 min
Oct 4, 3:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GID	Clay, Fillmore, Nuckolls	49 min
Oct 4, 4:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Clay, Fillmore, Hamilton, Nuckolls, Thayer, York	49 min
Oct 4, 5:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GID	Polk	39 min
Oct 4, 5:25 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	GID	Hamilton, Merrick, Polk, York	5 hr
Oct 4, 5:36 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	GID	Fillmore, Thayer	4 hr
Oct 4, 5:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Fillmore, Thayer	27 min
Oct 4, 5:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GID	Polk	44 min
Oct 4, 6:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GID	Polk	30 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Nebraska, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.