Severe Thunderstorm Warning 303, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
623 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2016

The forecast centers around thunderstorms and the severe weather
potential this evening and tonight. An upper low pressure system was
moving east of the Rockies, lifting toward the Dakotas with a lead
wave moving out of Wyoming into Nebraska. At the surface, low
pressure was centered in western North Dakota with the surface
trough and cold frontal boundary extending to the south through
western Nebraska and Kansas.

Cloud cover was prevalent across the majority of our cwa, with
our southern zones the exception where clouds have begun to
break. Looking for storm initiation to occur in western Kansas
heading late this afternoon with the storms tracking northeast
into our western counties this evening, with convection becoming
more widespread heading into tonight across our cwa in increasing
dynamics as the upper system moves into the Dakotas and the
associated cold frontal boundary advances across the Central
Plains.

Instability parameters indicate instability in the 2000 to 2500 j/kg
range with increasing shear of 30kts or so and the potential remains
for strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging winds the
primary hazards. Also have a concern for the potential for heavy
rain in the moisture rich atmosphere with surface dewpoints in the
mid and upper 60s and precipitable water values 175 percent of
normal around an inch and half. Good rainfall rates and amounts are
possible which could lead to localized flooding.

The overnight period is looking very wet with convection lasting
through the night, with the precipitation moving out early Friday.
High presure builds southeast behind the front Friday with dry and
seasonal conditions forecast with more prevalent sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2016

The weekend period is shaping up to be nice weatherwise in fairly
zonal but progressive flow behind the departing upper trough. There
is a weak shortwave which translates across the plains which may
generate light precipitation late Saturday, but there are still
model differences with this next wave and prefer to go with a dry
forecast than blanket low pops.  A southern plains upper ridge axis
expands north early next bringing a warming trend in temps, then
flow transitions southwest around the middle of the week as a
couple of Pacific troughs move onshore bringing intermittent
chances for storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2016

Confidence is fairly high that VFR ceiling/visibility will prevail
through the vast majority of the period. The paramount concern is
a chance of thunderstorms...potentially severe...affecting either
terminal mainly during the 01z-09z time frame this
evening/tonight. Attempted to highlight the main period of concern
with a TEMPO group running from 02-06z at KGRI and 01-05z at KEAR.
Should a storm directly affect the terminal, large hail and
severe-criteria wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, there
appears to be an outside chance for at least a brief MVFR ceiling
behind a passing weak cold front overnight, but for now have only
"hinted" at this with a scattered MVFR cloud mention. Otherwise,
confidence is fairly high that the latter half of the period
(Friday daytime) is rain-free with only scattered VFR clouds.
Aside from any possible enhanced thunderstorm winds, surface winds
are expected to average under 12kt through the period, initially
southerly to variable in direction right away this evening, and
then eventually becoming more established from the northwest
behind the passing front.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
246 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
161200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
246 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HAIL NEAR THE SIZE
OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS EAST
OF A LINE FROM OSBORNE KANSAS TO GENEVA NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
910 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND GST     AMHERST                 40.84N 99.27W
09/15/2016  E50 MPH          BUFFALO            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EST 40 TO 50MPH WINDGUSTS WITH PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL

&&

PBEDA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
913 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

KSZ005-006-017-018-160245-
ROOKS KS-OSBORNE KS-PHILLIPS KS-SMITH KS-
913 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OSBORNE...ROOKS...
PHILLIPS AND SOUTHWESTERN SMITH COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 913 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LONG ISLAND TO NEAR SPEED TO NEAR PALCO.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PHILLIPSBURG...PLAINVILLE...SMITH CENTER...STOCKTON...LOGAN...
KENSINGTON...PALCO...AGRA...KIRWIN...WOODSTON...PRAIRIE VIEW...
LONG ISLAND...DAMAR...GAYLORD...ALTON...ZURICH...GLADE...ATHOL...
SPEED AND HARLAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3957 9960 3957 9962 3995 9962 3998 9908
      3988 9908 3988 9873 3936 9880 3925 9901
      3913 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 240DEG 33KT 3991 9948 3960 9937 3922 9952

ADP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
919 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BEAVER CITY             40.14N 99.83W
09/15/2016  M1.55 INCH       FURNAS             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            1.55 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED WITH PASSING STORMS.

&&

PBEDA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
919 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

NEZ046-047-061-062-160300-
HOWARD NE-HALL NE-SHERMAN NE-BUFFALO NE-
919 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BUFFALO...
SOUTHWESTERN HOWARD...NORTHWESTERN HALL AND SOUTHEASTERN SHERMAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 919 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CAIRO TO RAVENNA. MOVEMENT WAS NORTH AT 15
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RAVENNA...CAIRO...DANNEBROG...HOWARD CITY...FARWELL...ROCKVILLE AND
BOELUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4123 9853 4116 9898 4096 9893 4101 9855
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 157DEG 12KT 4105 9860 4102 9890

PFANNKUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
922 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

NEZ040-041-047-048-160300-
HOWARD NE-MERRICK NE-NANCE NE-GREELEY NE-
922 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HOWARD...
SOUTHEASTERN GREELEY...NANCE AND NORTHWESTERN MERRICK COUNTIES UNTIL
1000 PM CDT...

AT 922 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELBA TO NEAR GENOA. MOVEMENT WAS NORTH AT
5 MPH...TO NEARY STATIONARY

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS ALONG THE LINE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. PAUL...FULLERTON...GENOA...PALMER...WOLBACH...
BELGRADE AND CUSHING.

LAT...LON 4140 9770 4140 9769 4134 9769 4113 9852
      4134 9856 4150 9832 4150 9829 4148 9829
      4148 9810 4149 9810 4150 9804 4151 9804
      4151 9789 4153 9788 4153 9771
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 195DEG 6KT 4130 9848 4142 9776

PFANNKUCH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>