Severe Thunderstorm Warning 299, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
623 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2016

The forecast centers around thunderstorms and the severe weather
potential this evening and tonight. An upper low pressure system was
moving east of the Rockies, lifting toward the Dakotas with a lead
wave moving out of Wyoming into Nebraska. At the surface, low
pressure was centered in western North Dakota with the surface
trough and cold frontal boundary extending to the south through
western Nebraska and Kansas.

Cloud cover was prevalent across the majority of our cwa, with
our southern zones the exception where clouds have begun to
break. Looking for storm initiation to occur in western Kansas
heading late this afternoon with the storms tracking northeast
into our western counties this evening, with convection becoming
more widespread heading into tonight across our cwa in increasing
dynamics as the upper system moves into the Dakotas and the
associated cold frontal boundary advances across the Central
Plains.

Instability parameters indicate instability in the 2000 to 2500 j/kg
range with increasing shear of 30kts or so and the potential remains
for strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging winds the
primary hazards. Also have a concern for the potential for heavy
rain in the moisture rich atmosphere with surface dewpoints in the
mid and upper 60s and precipitable water values 175 percent of
normal around an inch and half. Good rainfall rates and amounts are
possible which could lead to localized flooding.

The overnight period is looking very wet with convection lasting
through the night, with the precipitation moving out early Friday.
High presure builds southeast behind the front Friday with dry and
seasonal conditions forecast with more prevalent sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2016

The weekend period is shaping up to be nice weatherwise in fairly
zonal but progressive flow behind the departing upper trough. There
is a weak shortwave which translates across the plains which may
generate light precipitation late Saturday, but there are still
model differences with this next wave and prefer to go with a dry
forecast than blanket low pops.  A southern plains upper ridge axis
expands north early next bringing a warming trend in temps, then
flow transitions southwest around the middle of the week as a
couple of Pacific troughs move onshore bringing intermittent
chances for storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2016

Confidence is fairly high that VFR ceiling/visibility will prevail
through the vast majority of the period. The paramount concern is
a chance of thunderstorms...potentially severe...affecting either
terminal mainly during the 01z-09z time frame this
evening/tonight. Attempted to highlight the main period of concern
with a TEMPO group running from 02-06z at KGRI and 01-05z at KEAR.
Should a storm directly affect the terminal, large hail and
severe-criteria wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, there
appears to be an outside chance for at least a brief MVFR ceiling
behind a passing weak cold front overnight, but for now have only
"hinted" at this with a scattered MVFR cloud mention. Otherwise,
confidence is fairly high that the latter half of the period
(Friday daytime) is rain-free with only scattered VFR clouds.
Aside from any possible enhanced thunderstorm winds, surface winds
are expected to average under 12kt through the period, initially
southerly to variable in direction right away this evening, and
then eventually becoming more established from the northwest
behind the passing front.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
246 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
161200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
246 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HAIL NEAR THE SIZE
OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS EAST
OF A LINE FROM OSBORNE KANSAS TO GENEVA NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
654 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             7 N HOLDREGE            40.54N 99.38W
09/15/2016  M1.50 INCH       PHELPS             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME TO PING PONG SIZED HAIL. ROADS AND GROUND COVERED IN
            HAIL

&&

PBEDA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
803 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

NEZ060-160130-
DAWSON NE-
803 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN DAWSON COUNTY UNTIL 830
PM CDT...

AT 803 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
OVERTON...OR 7 MILES EAST OF LEXINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OVERTON...SUMNER AND EDDYVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4104 9963 4096 9942 4083 9943 4072 9956
      4080 9971
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 207DEG 13KT 4081 9960

PFANNKUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
806 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

NEZ082-160130-
FURNAS NE-
806 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN FURNAS COUNTY UNTIL 830
PM CDT...

AT 805 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
CENTERED NEAR EDISON...OR 26 MILES NORTH OF NORTON...MOVING NORTH AT
25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARAPAHOE...BEAVER CITY...EDISON...HENDLEY AND HOLLINGER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4005 9976 4009 9999 4034 9993 4033 9964
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 196DEG 23KT 4022 9981

PFANNKUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
823 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

KSZ005-NEZ072-073-082-083-160200-
PHILLIPS KS-GOSPER NE-PHELPS NE-FURNAS NE-HARLAN NE-
823 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PHILLIPS...
SOUTHEASTERN GOSPER...SOUTHERN PHELPS...EASTERN FURNAS AND HARLAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 823 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LEADING EDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR OXFORD TO NEAR HOLLINGER TO
NEAR ALMENA. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF GENERALLY 40 TO 55 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALMA...OXFORD...BEAVER CITY...ORLEANS...STAMFORD...REPUBLICAN CITY...
LONG ISLAND...EDISON...ATLANTA...HUNTLEY...RAGAN...HOLLINGER...
HARLAN COUNTY DAM AND WOODRUFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4038 9982 4040 9918 4005 9919 3985 9924
      3987 9963 4000 9963 4000 9991
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 275DEG 30KT 4033 9961 4009 9969 3993 9973

PFANNKUCH

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