Severe Thunderstorm Warning 288, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
617 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2016

Aloft: SW flow is over the Cntrl Plains with a longwave trof
along the W coast and a ridge over Ern N America. A subtle
shortwave trof was over CO. This trof will cont E and cross the
fcst area this eve. Another shortwave trof is fcst to eject out of
the base of the Wrn trof tomorrow and lift NE into Neb/SD late in
the afternoon.

Surface: A slow-moving cool front extended from Canadian low pres
thru the Dakota's and then WSW across WY-UT-NV. Strong high pres
was over the GtLakes. This front will move very little thru
tomorrow...but the temp grad along it will sharpen/strengthen. The
fcst area will be in the warm sector thru tomorrow.

Another cloudy/dreary day for much of the fcst area...one of svrl
recently in this predominantly cool pattern that began back on Aug
19th. Shwrs (with a few embedded tstms) have been very productive
over the SE 1/3 of the fcst area. The highest we've seen is over
1.50" at AUH. These shwrs will exit into Ern Neb/KS by this eve.

Tonight: Highly uncertain. How much does cloud cover erode before
sunset? With this stratus lingering into the late afternoon...it
virtually guarantees it will rapidly expand/reform where clouds
decrease late afternoon/evening. Pres grad/winds should keep fog
from being too much of a problem.

Can't rule out a few shwrs/tstms developing within strong low-lvl
jet.

Sun: Probably widespread low clouds and some light fog. Gradual
improvement/clearing...but if it's delayed we may be too warm on
temps. Any sct tstm activity that develops tonight could linger
into the morning hrs Sun before exiting into Ern Neb.

Breezy S winds (15-25 mph with higher gusts).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2016

Aloft: SW flow will prevail here thru Tue. The Wrn trof will
deamplify and height falls will spread E across the Nrn USA with a
broad trof developing (almost zonal at times). What's left over
the Wrn trof lifts thru the Nrn Plains Wed followed by a strong
trof Fri.

Surface: height falls will allow the cool front to sink S and E.
It will enter the fcst area Mon night and become quasi-
stationary...oscillating back and forth across Neb/KS thru Thu.
Another cool front will move in from the NW Thu night... merging
with the preceding front and shoving it far S and E of the fcst
area Fri-Sat. High pres is then fcst to overtake the Cntrl Plains
in its wake.

With the front around...in theory we should have svrl chances for
decent rainfall...but as usual not everyone will get it. And given
the recent dryness over S-cntrl Neb...am hesitant to get hopes up
much. It's just too difficult to have any confidence in tstm
potential without QG forcing to help.

Temps will average warmer than normal until the second front plows
thru Thu night. Then temps will turn a little cooler than normal.

In the interest of getting this out in time...please see our
assessment of svr wx potential in the HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat Sep 3 2016

Some breaks in the cloud cover in the area at TAF issuance time
but expect stratus to fill in again later tonight. Should drop to
MVFR and possibly IFR towards sunrise but will stay on
conservative side for now. Some storms have developed over
northwest KS late this afternoon and will need to monitor
progression as the evening wears on. LLWS could also be a factor.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Ewald

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
645 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
041200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
645 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THERE IS A RISK FOR
A STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM UNTIL 2 AM CDT PRIMARILY FOR
FURNAS...HARLAN...PHILLIPS...AND ROOKS COUNTIES...WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OUT TO THE WEST COULD MEANDER IN. HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT VARIOUS TIMES AND
LOCATIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT ANY SINGLE
LOCATION. HOWEVER...SOME STORMS THIS WEEK COULD BE STRONG OR
SEVERE. ONE TIME PERIOD CURRENTLY IN FOCUS IS SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH THOUGH BECAUSE IT IS
CONTINGENT ON FORMATION OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...SHOULD THEY OCCUR.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

EWALD