Severe Thunderstorm Warning 281, NWS Hastings, NE

350 
WWUS53 KGID 120113
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
813 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

NEC019-047-163-120123-
/O.EXP.KGID.SV.W.0281.000000T0000Z-160812T0115Z/
DAWSON NE-BUFFALO NE-SHERMAN NE-
813 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DAWSON...WESTERN
BUFFALO AND SOUTHWESTERN SHERMAN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM
CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE...THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4104 9970 4105 9969 4105 9921 4115 9921
      4106 9897 4072 9925
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 291DEG 26KT 4109 9954 

$$

HEINLEIN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
627 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2016

A cold front extends from around Ord down to Lexington late this
afternoon. Expected this front to slowly push southeast through
the evening and overnight hours, providing a focus for shower and
thunderstorm development. Already see a few storms firing up
along this line, but expect the better and more organized activity
to form during the 5pm to 10 pm time frame.

With plenty of instability...on the order of several thousand
J/kg according to the latest mesoanalysis...and modest shear to
work with...there is definitely the chance for any thunderstorms
that do develop to rapidly intensify and become severe during the
late afternoon through early evening hours. While there has been
substantial mid level cloud cover across the northwestern quadrant
of the local area...holding down temps and preventing the CAP from
eroding more quickly...continue to think that forcing from the
frontal boundary will be sufficient to trigger a good amount of
thunderstorm coverage over the next 6 to 10 hours. Given the shear
and instability profile, hail to the size of golf balls along with
60 mph gusts/outflows will both be possible with the strongest
storms. In addition, due to the slow moving nature of this front,
heavy rainfall could also be of a lesser concern, mainly limited
by the fact the ground is so dry ahead of this front. While this
front is expected to be the main focus of activity this evening
and overnight...expect a second surge in activity as forcing from
an upper vort to the west could spark additional activity towards
morning.

As this front then tracks further southeast early Friday morning,
instability will wane and the severe threat will be gone, with the
chance for any additional showers and thunderstorms ending across
north central Kansas by noon. Thereafter, should see some partial
clearing late in the day, with afternoon temps return to near or
just below seasonal norms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2016

Northwesterly flow aloft will return to the local area behind the
aforementioned front ushering in a more seasonal airmass with near
normal temps expected through the entire extended period. Could
see a few thunderstorms develop with an upper level disturbance
late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, but overall, no
significant or widespread chances for thunderstorms exist through
early next week. The next best chance for thunderstorms will come
late in the period when another frontal boundary approaches the
local area towards the middle of next week, and opted to keep the
chances for thunderstorms given by blended model data for the time
being.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2016

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, but there will
be an outside chance for a TSRA and MVFR or lower conditions
through the overnight hours. While these conditions were not
included in the 00Z TAFs due to uncertainty, there will be
thunderstorms around all night, some of which could be on the
strong side with near severe wind gusts. Cigs will lift to above
10kft during the morning hours Friday as winds increase out of the
north behind the passing cold front.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
655 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
130000-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
655 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OTHER SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

ROSSI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
705 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S EDGAR               40.31N 97.97W
08/11/2016  E50 MPH          NUCKOLLS           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 MILES SOUTH OF EDGAR ON HIGHWAY 4. HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
            REPORTED. ESTIMATED AT 2 INCHES AN HOUR.

&&

SROSSI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
712 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     DAVENPORT               40.31N 97.81W
08/11/2016  E60 MPH          THAYER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ON HIGHWAY 4 NEAR DAVENPORT. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

&&

SROSSI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
725 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BURR OAK                39.87N 98.30W
08/11/2016  M1.48 INCH       JEWELL             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAIN FELL BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM WITH 1.38 INCHES FALLING
            BETWEEN 515 PM AND 545 PM.

&&

DOXEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
726 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     TSTM WND GST     BELVIDERE               40.25N 97.56W
08/11/2016  E60 MPH          THAYER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ONGOING IN BELVIDERE.

&&

SROSSI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
728 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     TSTM WND GST     BRUNING                 40.34N 97.56W
08/11/2016  E60 MPH          THAYER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 60MPH CURRENTLY ONGOING IN BRUNNING.

&&

SROSSI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
731 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 N HEBRON              40.23N 97.59W
08/11/2016  E65 MPH          THAYER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 60 TO 65 MPH CURRENTLY ONGOING
            NORTH OF HEBRON.

&&

JPETR