Severe Thunderstorm Warning 279, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
627 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2016

A cold front extends from around Ord down to Lexington late this
afternoon. Expected this front to slowly push southeast through
the evening and overnight hours, providing a focus for shower and
thunderstorm development. Already see a few storms firing up
along this line, but expect the better and more organized activity
to form during the 5pm to 10 pm time frame.

With plenty of instability...on the order of several thousand
J/kg according to the latest mesoanalysis...and modest shear to
work with...there is definitely the chance for any thunderstorms
that do develop to rapidly intensify and become severe during the
late afternoon through early evening hours. While there has been
substantial mid level cloud cover across the northwestern quadrant
of the local area...holding down temps and preventing the CAP from
eroding more quickly...continue to think that forcing from the
frontal boundary will be sufficient to trigger a good amount of
thunderstorm coverage over the next 6 to 10 hours. Given the shear
and instability profile, hail to the size of golf balls along with
60 mph gusts/outflows will both be possible with the strongest
storms. In addition, due to the slow moving nature of this front,
heavy rainfall could also be of a lesser concern, mainly limited
by the fact the ground is so dry ahead of this front. While this
front is expected to be the main focus of activity this evening
and overnight...expect a second surge in activity as forcing from
an upper vort to the west could spark additional activity towards
morning.

As this front then tracks further southeast early Friday morning,
instability will wane and the severe threat will be gone, with the
chance for any additional showers and thunderstorms ending across
north central Kansas by noon. Thereafter, should see some partial
clearing late in the day, with afternoon temps return to near or
just below seasonal norms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2016

Northwesterly flow aloft will return to the local area behind the
aforementioned front ushering in a more seasonal airmass with near
normal temps expected through the entire extended period. Could
see a few thunderstorms develop with an upper level disturbance
late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, but overall, no
significant or widespread chances for thunderstorms exist through
early next week. The next best chance for thunderstorms will come
late in the period when another frontal boundary approaches the
local area towards the middle of next week, and opted to keep the
chances for thunderstorms given by blended model data for the time
being.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2016

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, but there will
be an outside chance for a TSRA and MVFR or lower conditions
through the overnight hours. While these conditions were not
included in the 00Z TAFs due to uncertainty, there will be
thunderstorms around all night, some of which could be on the
strong side with near severe wind gusts. Cigs will lift to above
10kft during the morning hours Friday as winds increase out of the
north behind the passing cold front.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
655 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
130000-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
655 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OTHER SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

ROSSI

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
552 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND GST     MANKATO                 39.79N 98.21W
08/11/2016  E50.00 MPH       JEWELL             KS   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 40-50 MPH GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN

&&

MANGELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
557 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND GST     GLEN ELDER              39.50N 98.31W
08/11/2016  M63 MPH          MITCHELL           KS   MESONET

            MESONET INDICATED A PEAK OF 63 MPH WITH A RECORDED GUST
            OF 60 AT 545 PM.

&&

SROSSI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
617 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

KSZ007-120000-
JEWELL KS-
617 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEWELL COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 617 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER MONTROSE...OR 22 MILES WEST OF BELLEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
55 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANKATO...JEWELL...BURR OAK...FORMOSO...IONIA...RANDALL...WEBBER...
LOVEWELL STATE PARK AND MONTROSE.

LAT...LON 3957 9797 3957 9839 3964 9851 3978 9850
      4000 9807 4000 9793 3958 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 232DEG 49KT 3981 9806

HEINLEIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
636 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

NEZ076-077-086-087-120015-
FILLMORE NE-CLAY NE-THAYER NE-NUCKOLLS NE-
636 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NUCKOLLS...SOUTHEASTERN CLAY...
FILLMORE AND NORTHERN THAYER COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 635 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
NELSON...OR 32 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HASTINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GENEVA...SUPERIOR...HEBRON...DESHLER...FAIRMONT...EDGAR...NELSON...
SHICKLEY...DAVENPORT...BRUNING...HARDY...GRAFTON...RUSKIN...OHIOWA...
CARLETON...OAK...ONG...BELVIDERE...STRANG AND NORA.

LAT...LON 4000 9791 4000 9808 4018 9827 4021 9827
      4070 9765 4030 9737 4029 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 233DEG 38KT 4016 9812

HEINLEIN