Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
236 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

FOCUS OF THE FORECAST TODAY HAS BEEN THE IMPENDING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT SITTING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AS OF 2 PM CDT...THIS LOW AND WARM
FRONT HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESS NORTHWARD AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW
ACROSS OUR LOCAL PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALSO EVIDENT.
AS A RESULT...AMPLE SHEAR COMBINED WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY
SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE RAPID AND INTENSE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY AFTER 4 PM.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS SEEMINGLY BEEN GETTING
A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS...WITH FOCUS OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INITIATING ACROSS OUR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES AND PROPAGATING NORTHWARD DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE LATEST HRRR/RAP/NAM COMING INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE FOCUS OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IN THE NEWLY
ISSUED TORNADO WATCH. THAT SAID...WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY...THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH THE THREAT TRANSITIONING FROM MORE OF A TORNADIC
AND HAIL CONCERN INITIALLY...TO A HAIL AND WIND THREAD AS THE
EVENING WEARS ON.

AS THE LOW THEN SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT COOLER AIR
TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND FOR MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOCAL RESIDENTS ARE
URGED TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE...AND RAPID STORM DEVELOPMENT AND A
MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...MAIN
CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT...WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT FURTHER N/NW THAN OTHER MODELS.
HAVE LINGERING POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW....WITH SOME QUESTION AS WE GET INTO
THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT SOME
CONCERN REMAINS WITH A FEW SHOWERS HANGING ON ACROSS FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL SEE HOW UPCOMING MODELS TREND.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW DIGGING
INTO THE SWRN CONUS.

LOOKING AT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THAT SWRN CONUS UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE...BY SAT MORNING HAS EMERGED OUT OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAR N/S IT COMES OUT ON THE
PLAINS...BUT TIMING IS FAIRLY SIMILAR. INCREASED LARGER SCALE LIFT
OUT AHEAD OF AND WITH THE SYSTEM KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS
POINT...MODELS NOT SHOWING A LOT IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...SO HAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER OR JUST SHOWERS GOING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...EXPECTING A COOLER PERIOD...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR /WHICH
IS ROUGHLY IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70/. FRIDAY CURRENTLY THE COOLEST
DAY...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING WRN LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET
ABOVE 50 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...MID 50S TO LOWER 60S THE GENERAL STORY
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. EXPECT A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...TO RESULT
IN CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE THEY SUBSIDE A BIT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE SEVERE...TO INITIATE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
PROPAGATE NORTHWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE SURFACE LOW
FOLLOWS SUIT AND LIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECTED CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. OVERALL...THE BEST CONDITIONS
WILL BE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPORARY LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN +TSRAS AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW TOMORROW
WHEN PREVAILING CIGS WILL DROP BELOW 500FT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
322 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
270830-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
322 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. WHILE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHERE A TORNADO
WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL BOTH BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 4 PM AND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS

ROSSI/ADP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
443 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     HAIL             3 E MANKATO             39.79N 98.15W
04/26/2016  M0.88 INCH       JEWELL             KS   STORM CHASER

            HWY 36 AND HWY 14 JUNCTION NICKLE SIZED HAIL REPORTED

&&

PBEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
453 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     HAIL             3 E SUPERIOR            40.02N 98.01W
04/26/2016  E1.75 INCH       NUCKOLLS           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

&&

REED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
456 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     HAIL             2 E SUPERIOR            40.02N 98.03W
04/26/2016  E1.75 INCH       NUCKOLLS           NE   STORM CHASER

            HALF DOLLAR TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ONGOING.

&&

ADP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
532 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

NEZ076-262315-
CLAY NE-
532 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLAY COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 532 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
EDGAR...OR 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HASTINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUTTON...HARVARD...CLAY CENTER...EDGAR...FAIRFIELD AND SARONVILLE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4035 9786 4035 9812 4070 9821 4070 9785
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 179DEG 21KT 4035 9803

HEINLEIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
538 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             DESHLER                 40.14N 97.72W
04/26/2016  E2.50 INCH       THAYER             NE   STORM CHASER

            ONGOING. GOLF BALL TO TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

&&

ADP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
540 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     HAIL             1 W DESHLER             40.14N 97.74W
04/26/2016  E1.75 INCH       THAYER             NE   STORM CHASER

&&

ADP