Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
237 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Abbreviated AFD due to early start to severe weather this afternoon.
Severe storms have begun in full force across the area initial line
going up near the radar and extending east. This is well north of
the main surface boundary that extends from southwest KS to
southeast NE. Storms have also popped along the boundary to our
south in KS.

All ingredients in place with plenty of moisture as low 70 dewpoints
have advected as far north as CNK. Decent forcing with upper wave
now centered over four corners region and slowly churning east.
Current instability ranges from ml-CAPE values of near 4000 J/KG in
the southern CWA to 1000 in the far north.  Mid level lapse rates
impressive south of highway 30 ranging from 8-9 deg C.  Effective
bulk shear values of 40kt south CWA to 60 kt north.  Only thing
lacking at present are 0-1 km bulk shear values which are 10 kt or
less. Still, latest Sig Tor parameter values now in the 3-4 range
in the Tor Watch area so will need close monitoring. Large hail
parameters off the chart with the southern half of the CWA
currently exceeding 30, while northern CWA exceeding 14.

What all of that means is we are looking at a good setup for severe
thunderstorms with the main threat at present being very large to
giant size hail. Tornadoes also possible especially near and
along the boundary. Expect activity to continue into the evening
and overnight as more thunderstorms move in from the southwest.

Precipitation chances continue into Friday and while severe threat
won't be as high as it is today, it will still be possible until
main upper wave gets east of us.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Unsettled weather continues in the long term although we
do see a pattern change. Deep upper southwest U.S. low finally moves
to the east and by 00Z Saturday it should be near northwest KS, and
then move over our CWA on Sat as it opens into a wave. By 00Z Sunday
the upper trough axis should be to our east near the MO River
Valley. So Sat night and early Sun may not be as active although
chances return Sun night as a surface boundary once again hangs up
in the central Plains.

Another upper low is progged to move into the Pacific NW region
later on Sunday which should preclude any ridging over the Plains.
The earlier runs of the EC and GFS differed on the timing but they
do both move this system east across southern Canada. The latest run
of the GFS seems to be coming more into line with the EC. Our
thunderstorm chances should continue until that wave axis gets east
of our CWA. This could be as early as Wed but will just have to see
how system progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Main issue will be thunderstorm chances starting later this
afternoon and continuing into tonight. Difficult to determine
exact timing as tstms will be scattered across the area. Did lower
ceilings to IFR after 06Z as latest guidance from several models
showing this.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Ewald
LONG TERM...Ewald
AVIATION...Ewald

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
126 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
271830-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
126 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA...THERE IS AN
ENHANCED RISK THAT EXTENDS UP TO HOLDREGE...KEARNEY...GRAND
ISLAND...AND YORK. NORTH OF THAT AREA THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK.

TIMING...THE MOST LIKELY TIME WILL BE FROM 3 PM UNTIL 11 PM.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE SOME STORMS COULD STILL REMAIN
SEVERE AFTER 11 PM.

IMPACTS...WHILE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA...THE HIGHEST IMPACT THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY
OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA...WHERE TORNADOES AND EXTREMELY LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL COULD BE AT LEAST THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS. DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. WITHIN THE ENHANCED AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS...LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE A LESSER THREAT...
BUT COULD ALSO OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST EACH DAY AND NIGHT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AT
LEAST A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA.

BEYOND FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

HALBLAUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
421 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GENEVA                  40.53N 97.60W
05/26/2016  M2.57 INCH       FILLMORE           NE   MESONET

            2 HR TOTAL THRU 4 PM.

&&

HALBLAUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
434 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     HAIL             3 S GILEAD              40.10N 97.42W
05/26/2016  E0.88 INCH       THAYER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL UP TO THE
            SIZE OF NICKELS.

&&

REED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
439 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     TSTM WND GST     SMITH CENTER            39.78N 98.78W
05/26/2016  E50 MPH          SMITH              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA SIZED HAIL, HEAVY RAIN AND EST WINDS AT 50MPH WITH
            STORMS.

&&

PBEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
440 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HAIL             6 S RED CLOUD           40.00N 98.52W
05/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       SMITH              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS ONE INCH HAIL 6 MILES SOUTH OF
            RED CLOUD.

&&

REED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
455 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     HAIL             GILEAD                  40.15N 97.42W
05/26/2016  M1.00 INCH       THAYER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL

&&

PBEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
506 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             GUIDE ROCK              40.07N 98.33W
05/26/2016  E0.50 INCH       WEBSTER            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL UP TO THE
            SIZE OF DIMES.

&&

REED