Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
627 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

.AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE STORMS EXTENDED JUST SOUTH OF A KLZZ
/LAMPASAS/...KACT /WACO/...KPSN /PALESTINE/ LINE AS OF 23Z. THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 30 MPH. HAVE NOT MENTIONED
ANY THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING IN THE METROPLEX...BUT WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THE STORM NORTHEAST OF KMNZ /HAMILTON...THAT SHOULD
WEAKEN BUT MAY APPROACH THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE METROPLEX THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THUS HAVE INDICATED MVFR CEILINGS BY 08Z WITH VCTS AND
TEMPO 3SM TSRA FOR THE 09Z TO 13Z PERIOD. WILL KEEP MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH VCSH.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/
THE MCS THAT CHARGED INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING IS NOW EXITING
INTO EAST TEXAS...LEAVING SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. EVEN WITH THIS
DOWNGLIDE WORKING AGAINST ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...SUNSHINE HAS
HELPED TEMPERATURES REBOUND FROM THE RAIN-COOLED 50S INTO THE 60S
AND EVEN 70S. DESPITE MUCAPE VALUES SOARING OVER 1000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREAS WEST OF I-35...THE ONLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION
HAS BEEN IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN
MAXIMIZED ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SOON INTERACT WITH EVEN MORE UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS BELL
COUNTY...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80F WITH DEW POINTS AS HIGH
AS 70F. THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
CLOSE AT NIGHTFALL...BUT SOME ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND NO CLEAR
SURFACE FOCUS.

THE UPPER LOW IS CONTINUING ITS EQUATORWARD TRAJECTORY. DESPITE
FEW PREVIOUS EVENTS TO SUPPORT THIS...THE ECMWF TAKES THE CENTER
OF THE 500MB LOW INTO AGUASCALIENTES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME...THIS WILL INDUCE INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
TEXAS...WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM DEEP
INTO THE TROPICAL LATITUDES. AS THE NEXT IMPULSE SWINGS INTO THE
LONE STAR STATE TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SURGE INTO CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CAMERON...TO
CORSICANA...TO PARIS...WHERE PW VALUES WILL APPROACH RECORD VALUES
FOR MARCH. THE EVENTUAL RAINFALL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL VARY
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS OUR REGION...FROM 1/4 INCH THE NORTHWEST TO
OVER 3 INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. THE MOST EXTRAORDINARY
RAINFALL DURING THE EVENT WILL BE EAST OF OUR CWA.

THE SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS IN
SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE THE ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IF SURFACE-
BASED CONVECTION DOMINATES IN SOUTH TEXAS...THIS THREAT WOULD BE
MORE LIMITED. THE NAM IS INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW
ATTENDANT WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION...TRACKING IT THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. IF THIS TRANSPIRES...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL TORNADOES AS SURFACE INFLOW WINDS BACK.
THIS WOULD BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TEMPLE TO ATHENS.

A COLD FRONT WILL INVADE ON WEDNESDAY...SHUTTING OFF MUCH OF THE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. BUT WITH THE LOW NOW CUT OFF FROM THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS THE FEATURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NEXT
BIG EVENT LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER
LOW APPROACHES...INDUCING UPGLIDE OVER THE COOL SURFACE LAYER.
THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH FLASH FLOODING
AND WORSENING RIVER FLOODING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MAY TRACK DIRECTLY
OVER NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...IT APPEARS THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A DRYING WEST WIND WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
70S. DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  70  57  67  54 /  90  70  20  40  60
WACO, TX              60  71  57  67  53 / 100  70  30  50  60
PARIS, TX             60  69  57  67  52 /  80  90  50  50  60
DENTON, TX            59  69  56  67  53 /  80  70  20  40  60
MCKINNEY, TX          60  69  56  67  53 /  80  70  20  40  60
DALLAS, TX            62  71  58  68  55 /  90  70  20  40  60
TERRELL, TX           61  70  56  68  54 /  90  80  30  50  50
CORSICANA, TX         62  71  59  69  55 / 100  80  40  50  50
TEMPLE, TX            61  71  56  67  53 / 100  70  30  50  60
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  70  53  65  52 /  80  70  20  40  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ095-105>107-
121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&

58/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
840 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-091200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
840 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. IF SUPERCELLS DEVELOP THE THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WHICH MAY RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
452 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW GRAPEVINE          32.91N  97.10W
03/08/2016                   TARRANT            TX   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT - NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS TREE DAMAGE IN
            GRAPEVINE JUST WEST OF 121/360 SPLIT. TIME RADAR
            ESTIMATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
510 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S BENBROOK            32.67N  97.45W
03/08/2016                   TARRANT            TX   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT - DAMAGE TO BENBROOK MARINA RELAYED VIA
            TWITTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
515 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     HAIL             15 NE LOMETA            31.38N  98.20W
03/08/2016  E1.75 INCH       LAMPASAS           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORT OF GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL 5 MILES SSW OF
            EVANT, TX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
541 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             IRELAND                 31.57N  97.97W
03/08/2016  M1.25 INCH       CORYELL            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL IN IRELAND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
757 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE BENBROOK           32.70N  97.43W
03/08/2016                   TARRANT            TX   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES SNAPPED AT THE MIRA VISTA GOLF
            COURSE. LARGEST TREE WAS 36 INCHES IN DIAMETER. TOTAL OF
            25 TREES UPROOTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
856 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BENBROOK                32.68N  97.45W
03/08/2016                   TARRANT            TX   PUBLIC

            DOZENS OF BOATS DAMAGED AT BENBROOK LAKE MARINA. PICNIC
            TABLES BLOWN INTO LAKE. BOAT MASTS WRAPPED AROUND POLES.