Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
649 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.AVIATION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL BE TIMING THE LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS CURRENTLY WEST OF ALL TERMINALS. THE LINE
IS MOVING EAST AROUND 35 KNOTS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
METROPLEX TERMINALS AROUND 02Z AND WACO SHORTLY AFTER THAT. THE
LINE WILL CONTAIN HAIL...STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND RESULT IN GROUND STOPS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE COULD IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 02Z BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED SO WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THIS PACKAGE. SINCE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...RAPID IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 05Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ON WEDNESDAY.

A GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL THE
DRYLINE AND LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES. THE WIND WILL BECOME WEST
BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS AND REMAIN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 13 AND 16 KNOTS WITH SPEEDS DECREASING
IN THE AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CROSSWIND ISSUES ON NORTH/SOUTH
RUNWAYS ARE EXPECTED SINCE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20
KNOTS.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TONIGHT'S SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH TODAY AND IS NOW CENTERED IN
WYOMING. A LOBE OF VORTICITY IS PIVOTING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH SPREADING LIFT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS.
THIS LIFT WAS NOTED AS AN EXPANDING CUMULUS FIELD AND AT 3 PM ONLY
ONE STORM NEAR MIDLAND HAD DEVELOPED.

AT THE SURFACE...THE DRYLINE IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM VERNON
TO SWEETWATER TO OZONA. THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM KDFW SHOWED A STOUT
CAP WAS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. IT IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE THE LIFT OVERSPREADS THE
DRYLINE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP AND ALLOW STORMS TO FORM. THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL NEAR A LINE FROM
WICHITA FALLS TO SAN ANGELO. WHEN INITIATION OCCURS...EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY A FEW TORNADOES.
I AM NOT GOING TO SPEND A LOT OF TIME TALKING ABOUT TONIGHT'S
EVENT AS THE LATEST THINKING IS STILL VERY CLOSE TO THE MORNING
UPDATE WITH STORMS BEGINNING TO AFFECT OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 4-6 PM. WE HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORMS THAT
FORM NEAR THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE ONES THAT MERGE INTO A SQUALL
LINE THAT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SQUALL LINE...THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM UPDATES
CAN NOW BE BEST OBTAINED ON OUR SOCIAL MEDIA FEEDS AND GRAPHICS ON
OUR WEBPAGE.

HI-RES GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF OUR CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
LINGER LOW POPS IN OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DELAY IN THE TIMING. THE REMAINDER OF
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ON THURSDAY...SOUTH FLOW WILL RETURN BRINGING HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE
A DRY DAY BUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ARE SHAPING UP FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OR POSSIBLY TWO OF SEVERE STORMS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE
CONVECTION EVEN THOUGH THE BEST LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE REGION. LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS AND A COMBINATION OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SEVERE
STORMS. OUR ENTIRE AREA IS ALREADY OUTLOOKED IN A SEVERE WEATHER
MARGINAL OR SLIGHT RISK AREA BY SPC WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
COVERING THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THE MAIN LIFT AREA AND
GENERAL LOCATION OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE WARM SECTOR ALSO ADVANCES NORTH. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...KEPT POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT AS THE NAM LIFTS THE
WARM FRONT NORTH VERY QUICKLY WHICH MAY RESULT IN A DRIER
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT END THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
STATE AND THE SET-UP FAVORS ANOTHER DRYLINE SEVERE STORM EVENT
WITH STORMS FORMING ON THE DRYLINE AND MOVING EAST DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE ARE NOT SAYING THE IMPACTS OR
OUTLOOK WITH FRIDAY'S SEVERE STORM EVENT WILL BE AS HIGH AS
TONIGHT'S ROUND OF STORMS...THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO REFINE
THE PARAMETERS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND IS MUDDY AT THIS TIME DUE TO
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE GFS INDICATES ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN/STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND QUIETER OVERALL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

JLDUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    64  85  61  86  67 /  80   5   5  10  40
WACO                63  85  60  85  69 /  70  20   5  10  30
PARIS               64  81  58  84  64 /  70  20   5   5  40
DENTON              59  83  56  85  66 /  80   5   5   5  40
MCKINNEY            61  82  56  85  65 /  80  10   5   5  40
DALLAS              64  85  62  86  67 /  80  10   5  10  40
TERRELL             65  83  58  86  67 /  70  20   5   5  40
CORSICANA           65  84  63  86  69 /  70  20   5  10  40
TEMPLE              61  85  63  86  69 /  60  20  10  10  30
MINERAL WELLS       55  84  56  85  65 /  80   0   5  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

79/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
341 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
341 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING
MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE
MOVING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

VERY LARGE HAIL...BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER...ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. WHEN THE STORMS FORM INTO A LINE...THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL DIMINISH AND THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STORM CHANCES RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

DUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
715 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 W OLNEY               33.37N  98.86W
04/26/2016  E60 MPH          YOUNG              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            60 MPH WIND GUST 5 MILES WEST OF OLNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
730 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             1 N BRIDGEPORT          33.23N  97.77W
04/26/2016  E0.75 INCH       WISE               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF PENNY SIZE HAIL 1 MILE NORTH OF BRIDGEPORT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
809 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S OLNEY               33.36N  98.77W
04/26/2016                   YOUNG              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOUSE ROOF DAMAGE, CARPORT DAMAGED AND TREES SNAPPED

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