Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
351 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
...HEADLINES...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (INCLUDING SOME
SEVERE) THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW BEFORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

A FAIRLY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES OF NOTE. AT THE SURFACE THE
CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER NORTH TEXAS WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG THE RED RIVER AND A DRY LINE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD AND APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWIRLING OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES FUNNELING IN MID LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALL
OF THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO BE FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE NEAR
THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUT AHEAD OF THE DRY
LINE SO ESSENTIALLY AREA WIDE NORTH OF I-20 WITH A SECONDARY MORE
ISOLATED THREAT SOUTH OF I-20 AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.

THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND BY TUESDAY
MORNING IT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST INTO EAST TEXAS SO
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
MORNING OVER OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY SET UP TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AND AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EXTREMELY
QUICKLY AND WILL TRACK NEAR NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY WELL
DEFINED SURFACE FEATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND THUS THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A RAIN MAKER WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO MORE NORMAL READINGS AFTER A LITTLE COOLING ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND OUR NEXT WEATHER FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING
WILL BE THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY SATURDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE FUNNELS IN AHEAD OF THIS LOW
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE LONE STAR STATE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE DETAILS ON
TIMING AND IMPACTS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE REFINED IN THE
COMING DAYS AS THE MODELS COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT BUT CERTAINLY
AT THIS POINT THERE ARE MANY SIGNS POINTING TOWARDS THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH AND EAST.

HOETH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 114 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AT THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SCT-BKN CIGS WITH BASES BETWEEN 025-050 KFT CONTINUE ACROSS THE
TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER AND A DRYLINE IS MOVING EAST
TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE
ON THE DRYLINE WEST OF DFW AROUND 20-21Z. FOR THE WACO AREA...THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER AND WILL NOT MENTION VCTS IN THE
KACT TAF AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS TO THE KACT TAF. FOR THE
METROPLEX...WILL CARRY VCTS FROM 21-00Z. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
AFFECTS THE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SEVERE WITH A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE METROPLEX LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AROUND 21-22Z BEFORE THE TRUE
FRONT ARRIVES. BETWEEN 21-00Z...ITS POSSIBLE THE WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE BUT THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY CLOSER TO 00Z. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT KACT ABOUT 01Z. MVFR CIGS WILL
BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BASES BETWEEN 1-2 KFT. HOWEVER...CIGS
AT KACT ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 1 KFT OVERNIGHT. IFR/MVFR CIGS
WILL HOLD THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY.

JLDUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    54  70  54  70  53 /  20  10  60  30  10
WACO                52  71  53  70  52 /  10  20  60  30  10
PARIS               54  68  49  67  50 /  30  10  60  30  10
DENTON              50  68  50  69  50 /  20  10  60  30  10
MCKINNEY            53  69  51  69  51 /  30  10  60  30  10
DALLAS              56  70  54  70  55 /  20  10  60  30  10
TERRELL             54  69  52  69  52 /  30  10  60  30  10
CORSICANA           55  69  54  69  54 /  30  10  60  30  10
TEMPLE              55  72  55  69  53 /  20  20  70  30  10
MINERAL WELLS       49  68  51  71  51 /  10  20  60  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
348 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-121215-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
348 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION TODAY WILL
COMBINE WITH A DRYLINE...A COLD FRONT AND AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...ALL OF WHICH WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT AN ISOLATED THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO EXIST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...HOWEVER...STORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO CLEBURNE
TO CAMERON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
406 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     HAIL             3 W GREENVILLE          33.13N  96.17W
04/11/2016  E0.88 INCH       HUNT               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS NICKEL SIZE HAIL JUST WEST OF
            GREENVILLE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
408 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             8 NE PARIS              33.73N  95.43W
04/11/2016  E1.00 INCH       LAMAR              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN NOVICE, LAMAR COUNTY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
411 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     HAIL             2 N SUNSET              33.48N  97.77W
04/11/2016  E1.00 INCH       MONTAGUE           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTS OF ONE INCH HAIL 2 NORTH OF SUNSET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
415 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     HAIL             2 NE SUNSET             33.47N  97.75W
04/11/2016  E1.75 INCH       MONTAGUE           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL BETWEEN BOWIE AND SUNSET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
429 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HAIL             SUNSET                  33.45N  97.77W
04/11/2016  E2.50 INCH       MONTAGUE           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN SUNSET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
435 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     HAIL             1 N ALVORD              33.38N  97.68W
04/11/2016  E1.75 INCH       WISE               TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORT OF 1 MILE NORTH OF ALVORD