River Flood Warning 7, NWS Fort Worth, TX

217 
WGUS84 KFWD 230752
FLSFWD
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
152 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
 
  East Fork Trinity River At McKinney Affecting Collin County 
  Chambers Creek Near Rice Affecting Navarro County 
  Trinity River At Dallas Affecting Dallas County 
  Trinity River At Trinidad Affecting Henderson and Navarro Counties 
  Elm Fork Trinity River Near Carrollton Affecting Dallas County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 

&&

TXC113-231952-
/O.CON.KFWD.FL.W.0005.160223T1800Z-160224T0600Z/
/CART2.1.ER.160223T1800Z.160223T1800Z.160223T1800Z.NO/
152 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Elm Fork Trinity River Near Carrollton.
* At 115 AM Tuesday the stage was 7.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 8 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage 
  Tuesday afternoon.
* At 8 feet, Minor flooding will occur downstream from the gage.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3300 9700 3287 9699 3287 9687 3300 9688

$$

TXC085-231951-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0006.160223T2313Z-160225T0724Z/
/MCKT2.1.ER.160223T2313Z.160224T0600Z.160224T1924Z.NO/
152 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The East Fork Trinity River At McKinney.
* At 130 AM Tuesday the stage was 4.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 16 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near 18 feet late
  Tuesday night.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3323 9667 3315 9661 3316 9649 3325 9654

$$

TXC349-231951-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0007.160224T2300Z-160226T1036Z/
/RCET2.1.ER.160224T2300Z.160225T1200Z.160225T2236Z.NO/
152 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Chambers Creek Near Rice.
* At 1 AM Tuesday the stage was 8.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 24 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by late 
  Wednesday afternoon and crest near 26 feet by Thursday morning. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 3217 9663 3212 9648 3218 9638 3227 9656

$$

TXC113-231951-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0008.160223T2113Z-160226T0600Z/
/DALT2.1.ER.160223T2113Z.160224T1200Z.160225T1800Z.NO/
152 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Trinity River At Dallas.
* At 1 AM Tuesday the stage was 26.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 30 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by 
  Tuesday afternoon and crest near 34 feet by Wednesday morning. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 3275 9693 3281 9693 3283 9683 3275 9671
      3269 9676 3278 9687

$$

TXC213-349-231951-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0009.160226T0600Z-160228T1434Z/
/TDDT2.1.ER.160226T0600Z.160227T1200Z.160228T0234Z.NO/
152 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Trinity River At Trinidad.
* At 1 AM Tuesday the stage was 19.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 33 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above minor flood stage
  later this week.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3219 9626 3206 9613 3207 9600 3223 9613

$$

DUNN

033 
WGUS84 KFWD 231436
FLSFWD
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
836 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
 
  Elm Fork Trinity River Near Carrollton Affecting Dallas County 

  East Fork Trinity River At McKinney Affecting Collin County 

  Chambers Creek Near Rice Affecting Navarro County 

  Trinity River At Dallas Affecting Dallas County 

  Trinity River At Trinidad Affecting Henderson and Navarro Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 

&&

TXC113-240236-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0005.160223T1434Z-160224T1200Z/
/CART2.1.ER.160223T1400Z.160223T1800Z.160224T0000Z.NO/
836 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Elm Fork Trinity River Near Carrollton.
* At 0815 AM Tuesday the stage was 8.01 feet.
* Flood stage is 8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to a crest near 8 feet 
  by Tuesday afternoon. The river should fall below flood stage 
  Tuesday evening.
* At 8 feet, Minor flooding will occur downstream from the gage.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3300 9700 3287 9699 3287 9687 3300 9688

$$

TXC085-240235-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0006.160224T0541Z-160225T0649Z/
/MCKT2.1.ER.160224T0541Z.160224T1200Z.160224T1849Z.NO/
836 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The East Fork Trinity River At McKinney.
* At 0730 AM Tuesday the stage was 5.60 feet.
* Flood stage is 16 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by 
  Tuesday night and crest near 17 feet by Wednesday morning. The 
  river should fall below flood stage by Wednesday afternoon.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3323 9667 3315 9661 3316 9649 3325 9654

$$

TXC349-240235-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0007.160224T2312Z-160226T1124Z/
/RCET2.1.ER.160224T2312Z.160225T1200Z.160225T2324Z.NO/
836 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Chambers Creek Near Rice.
* At 0800 AM Tuesday the stage was 9.81 feet.
* Flood stage is 24 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by late 
  Wednesday afternoon and crest near 26 feet by Thursday morning. 
  The river should fall below flood stage by late Thursday afternoon.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3217 9663 3212 9648 3218 9638 3227 9656

$$

TXC113-240235-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0008.160223T2200Z-160226T0524Z/
/DALT2.1.ER.160223T2200Z.160224T1200Z.160225T1724Z.NO/
836 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Trinity River At Dallas.
* At 0800 AM Tuesday the stage was 29.08 feet.
* Flood stage is 30 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by late 
  Tuesday afternoon and crest near 34 feet by Wednesday morning. The
  river should fall below flood stage by late Thursday morning.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3275 9693 3281 9693 3283 9683 3275 9671
      3269 9676 3278 9687

$$

TXC213-349-240235-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0009.160225T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/TDDT2.1.ER.160225T1800Z.160228T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
836 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Trinity River At Trinidad.
* At 0800 AM Tuesday the stage was 21.13 feet.
* Flood stage is 33 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by 
  Thursday afternoon and crest near 36 feet by Saturday evening.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3219 9626 3206 9613 3207 9600 3223 9613

$$

655 
WGUS84 KFWD 231950
FLSFWD
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
150 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
 
  Elm Fork Trinity River Near Carrollton Affecting Dallas County 

  East Fork Trinity River At McKinney Affecting Collin County 

  Chambers Creek Near Rice Affecting Navarro County 

  Trinity River At Dallas Affecting Dallas County 

  Trinity River At Trinidad Affecting Henderson and Navarro Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 


&&

TXC113-240750-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-160224T2230Z/
/CART2.1.ER.160223T1400Z.160224T0000Z.160224T1030Z.NO/
150 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Elm Fork Trinity River Near Carrollton.
* At 0115 PM Tuesday the stage was 8.34 feet.
* Flood stage is   8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to a crest near  8.5 feet 
  this evening. The river should fall below flood stage 
  Wednesday after midnight.
* At  8 feet, Minor flooding will occur downstream from the gage.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3300 9700 3287 9699 3287 9687 3300 9688

$$

TXC085-240749-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0006.160224T0231Z-160225T0123Z/
/MCKT2.1.ER.160224T0231Z.160224T0600Z.160224T1323Z.NO/
150 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The East Fork Trinity River At McKinney.
* At 0130 PM Tuesday the stage was 10.42 feet.
* Flood stage is  16 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by 
  this evening and crest near  17 feet by Wednesday after 
  midnight. The river should fall below flood stage by Wednesday 
  morning.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3323 9667 3315 9661 3316 9649 3325 9654

$$

TXC349-240749-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0007.160225T0300Z-160226T0000Z/
/RCET2.1.ER.160225T0300Z.160225T0600Z.160225T1200Z.NO/
150 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Chambers Creek Near Rice.
* At 0100 PM Tuesday the stage was 16.77 feet.
* Flood stage is  24 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by 
  Wednesday night and crest near  24 feet by Thursday after midnight.
  The river should fall below flood stage by Thursday morning.
* At 24 feet, Minor out of bank flooding will occur along the creek. 
  This will be a problem for some cattle and farm industries.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3217 9663 3212 9648 3218 9638 3227 9656

$$

TXC113-240749-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0008.160223T1948Z-160226T0454Z/
/DALT2.1.ER.160223T1638Z.160224T1200Z.160225T1654Z.NO/
150 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Trinity River At Dallas.
* At 0100 PM Tuesday the stage was 31.13 feet.
* Flood stage is  30 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to a crest near  35 feet 
  by Wednesday morning. The river should fall below flood stage late 
  Thursday morning.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3275 9693 3281 9693 3283 9683 3275 9671
      3269 9676 3278 9687

$$

TXC213-349-240749-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0009.160225T1600Z-000000T0000Z/
/TDDT2.1.ER.160225T1600Z.160227T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
150 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Trinity River At Trinidad.
* At 0100 PM Tuesday the stage was 23.20 feet.
* Flood stage is  33 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by late 
  Thursday morning and crest near  36 feet by Saturday afternoon.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3219 9626 3206 9613 3207 9600 3223 9613

$$

337 
WGUS84 KFWD 240155
FLSFWD
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
755 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following areas in Texas...
 
  Chambers Creek Near Rice Affecting Navarro County

...The Flood Warning continues for the following areas in Texas...
 
  Elm Fork Trinity River Near Carrollton Affecting Dallas County 
  East Fork Trinity River At McKinney Affecting Collin County 
  Trinity River At Dallas Affecting Dallas County 
  Trinity River At Trinidad Affecting Henderson and Navarro Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. 
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Stay tuned to NOAA All Hazards Radio for the latest river forecasts. 


&&

TXC113-241355-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-160224T1640Z/
/CART2.1.ER.160223T1400Z.160223T2045Z.160224T0440Z.NO/
755 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Elm Fork Trinity River Near Carrollton.
* At 0715 PM Tuesday the stage was 8.26 feet.
* Flood stage is 8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and is forecast to end this evening.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to recede...
  falling below flood stage this evening.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3300 9700 3287 9699 3287 9687 3300 9688

$$

TXC085-241354-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0006.160224T0543Z-160224T1822Z/
/MCKT2.1.ER.160224T0543Z.160224T0600Z.160224T0622Z.NO/
755 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The East Fork Trinity River At McKinney.
* At 0630 PM Tuesday the stage was 14.15 feet.
* Flood stage is 16 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to crest near 16 feet 
  overnight...then fall below flood stage early Wednesday morning.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3323 9667 3315 9661 3316 9649 3325 9654

$$

TXC349-240225-
/O.CAN.KFWD.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-160226T0000Z/
/RCET2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
755 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Chambers Creek Near Rice.
* At 0700 PM Tuesday the stage was 19.00 feet.
* Flood stage is 24 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to continue rising but crest 
  below flood stage near 23 feet Wednesday night.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3217 9663 3212 9648 3218 9638 3227 9656

$$

TXC113-241354-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-160226T0936Z/
/DALT2.1.ER.160223T1638Z.160224T1200Z.160225T2136Z.NO/
755 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Trinity River At Dallas.
* At 0700 PM Tuesday the stage was 32.89 feet.
* Flood stage is 30 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to a crest near 35 feet 
  Wednesday morning. The river should fall below flood stage 
  Thursday afternoon.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3275 9693 3281 9693 3283 9683 3275 9671
      3269 9676 3278 9687

$$

TXC213-349-241354-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0009.160224T1626Z-000000T0000Z/
/TDDT2.1.ER.160224T1626Z.160227T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
755 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Trinity River At Trinidad.
* At 0700 PM Tuesday the stage was 25.94 feet.
* Flood stage is 33 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by late 
  Wednesday morning and crest near 37 feet this weekend.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3219 9626 3206 9613 3207 9600 3223 9613

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
603 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A POWERFUL
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY...INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS...PRECIPITATION TYPE...STRONG
WINDS AND LOW CIGS.

THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS AROUND 6Z/MIDNIGHT. SOME HI-RES MODELS ARE
INDICATING THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF AN ELEVATED LINE OF
STORMS...WHILE OTHERS SHOW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
STORMS. EITHER WAY THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL USE UP THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT FOR ANY THUNDER WILL DIMINISH
RAPIDLY BY SUNRISE. WILL SHOW VCTS FOR METROPLEX TAFS FROM
6-12Z...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND WRAPS UP OVER THE AREA. IF
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN COOL ENOUGH DUE TO THE DYNAMIC LIFT AND
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS OCCURRING IS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX AND THERE
ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING AT METROPLEX TAF SITES.

FOR WACO THERE WILL BE HIGHER INSTABILITY THIS EVENING AND EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS
PRECIPITATION MAY END ALTOGETHER BUT WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR
LIGHT RAIN MENTIONED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A DRY AFTERNOON.

FOR CIGS...MVFR CIGS SEEM TO BE ERODING ACROSS THE METROPLEX NOW
BUT THESE SHOULD FILL BACK IN AROUND 3Z. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO IFR
WHEN THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT. IFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING BUT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AND EASTERLY TONIGHT AT 5-10KT BUT THEY
WILL INCREASE BY MORNING AND GRADUALLY TURN AROUND TO THE NORTH BY
MIDDAY. NORTH WINDS SUSTAINED AT 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
40KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DIRECTION
STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 330 AND 350 WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
CROSSWIND CONCERNS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MINOR SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAS PUSHED OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...OVER THE LOUISIANA BORDER. THE FEATURE
THAT WILL CAUSE THE MOST IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS THE SHORT WAVE THAT
CAN BE SEEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BELOW THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT TWO WEEKS
FOR SOME AREAS. THE COLD FRONT AND THE TIGHTER SURFACE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

BY THIS EVENING WE WILL START SEE TO THE IMPACTS OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST. BY 00Z TUESDAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THERE
IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE IT CUTTING OFF RIGHT AROUND 18Z
AND WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA AROUND 00Z.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL POTENTIALLY HAVE ISOLATED FLOODING AND/OR
A REMOTE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS ON NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

MODELS INDICATE A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE...WITH A SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE ALL THE WAY UP PAST 500MB STARTING BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
TUESDAY. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON TIME/HEIGHT MODEL DATA AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SO FLOODING IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THOSE
HOURS OR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
HAS BECOME DRY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS...SO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS IS WHY A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS HAVE
ALREADY SEEN OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. WHEN
COMBINED WITH ANOTHER ONE TO THREE INCHES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS SOME AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING COULD
BE AREAS OF CONCERN. SHORT TERM FLASH FLOODING MIGHT OCCUR IN URBAN
AREAS...LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS. SOME POINTS
ALONG THE TRINITY THAT ARE SENSITIVE TO FLOODING MAY GO INTO FLOOD
AS TRIBUTARY RIVERS COMBINE AND FLOW DOWN STREAM.

THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS LOW DUE TO THE
UNIMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...BUT CAN NOT BE RULE OUT
BECAUSE OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER OF SHEAR. THIS COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL ROTATION TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL ACROSS SOME OF OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MIGRATES NORTHEAST THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END WEDNESDAY. WEATHER SHOULD BE CALM AND QUIET
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IMPACTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

78.JG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  50  41  58  39 / 100  90  50  10   0
WACO, TX              54  55  39  61  35 / 100  80  30  10   0
PARIS, TX             48  50  38  53  35 /  90  90  70  10   0
DENTON, TX            46  48  38  58  35 / 100  90  50  10   0
MCKINNEY, TX          48  49  38  56  36 / 100  90  60  10   0
DALLAS, TX            51  51  41  58  39 / 100  90  50  10   0
TERRELL, TX           52  52  39  57  36 / 100  90  50  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         55  56  39  59  38 / 100  90  50  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            56  57  39  60  36 / 100  70  30  10   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     48  49  38  59  34 / 100  80  40   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
256 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-231230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
256 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL MAINLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO CENTERVILLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR OVERNIGHT AREA WIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. A
FEW STORMS IN THE MORNING MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO HEARNE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME STREET AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
AS WELL AS SOME FLASH FLOODING. RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN MAY ALSO
CAUSE RISES INTO THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE CATEGORY ALONG PARTS OF THE
EAST FORK TRINITY...THE MAIN STEM TRINITY RIVER FROM DALLAS/FORT
WORTH METROPLEX SOUTHWARD AND ALSO ALONG THE NAVASOTA RIVER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO REGION WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED AFTER MIDNIGHT
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO CENTERVILLE.