River Flood Warning 6, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
603 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A POWERFUL
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY...INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS...PRECIPITATION TYPE...STRONG
WINDS AND LOW CIGS.

THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS AROUND 6Z/MIDNIGHT. SOME HI-RES MODELS ARE
INDICATING THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF AN ELEVATED LINE OF
STORMS...WHILE OTHERS SHOW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
STORMS. EITHER WAY THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL USE UP THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT FOR ANY THUNDER WILL DIMINISH
RAPIDLY BY SUNRISE. WILL SHOW VCTS FOR METROPLEX TAFS FROM
6-12Z...WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND WRAPS UP OVER THE AREA. IF
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN COOL ENOUGH DUE TO THE DYNAMIC LIFT AND
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER LOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS OCCURRING IS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX AND THERE
ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING AT METROPLEX TAF SITES.

FOR WACO THERE WILL BE HIGHER INSTABILITY THIS EVENING AND EXPECT
A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS
PRECIPITATION MAY END ALTOGETHER BUT WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR
LIGHT RAIN MENTIONED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A DRY AFTERNOON.

FOR CIGS...MVFR CIGS SEEM TO BE ERODING ACROSS THE METROPLEX NOW
BUT THESE SHOULD FILL BACK IN AROUND 3Z. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO IFR
WHEN THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT. IFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING BUT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AND EASTERLY TONIGHT AT 5-10KT BUT THEY
WILL INCREASE BY MORNING AND GRADUALLY TURN AROUND TO THE NORTH BY
MIDDAY. NORTH WINDS SUSTAINED AT 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
40KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DIRECTION
STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 330 AND 350 WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
CROSSWIND CONCERNS BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MINOR SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAS PUSHED OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...OVER THE LOUISIANA BORDER. THE FEATURE
THAT WILL CAUSE THE MOST IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS THE SHORT WAVE THAT
CAN BE SEEN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BELOW THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT TWO WEEKS
FOR SOME AREAS. THE COLD FRONT AND THE TIGHTER SURFACE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

BY THIS EVENING WE WILL START SEE TO THE IMPACTS OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST. BY 00Z TUESDAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THERE
IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE IT CUTTING OFF RIGHT AROUND 18Z
AND WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA AROUND 00Z.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL POTENTIALLY HAVE ISOLATED FLOODING AND/OR
A REMOTE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS ON NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

MODELS INDICATE A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE...WITH A SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE ALL THE WAY UP PAST 500MB STARTING BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
TUESDAY. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON TIME/HEIGHT MODEL DATA AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SO FLOODING IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THOSE
HOURS OR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
HAS BECOME DRY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS...SO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS IS WHY A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS HAVE
ALREADY SEEN OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. WHEN
COMBINED WITH ANOTHER ONE TO THREE INCHES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS SOME AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING COULD
BE AREAS OF CONCERN. SHORT TERM FLASH FLOODING MIGHT OCCUR IN URBAN
AREAS...LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS. SOME POINTS
ALONG THE TRINITY THAT ARE SENSITIVE TO FLOODING MAY GO INTO FLOOD
AS TRIBUTARY RIVERS COMBINE AND FLOW DOWN STREAM.

THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS LOW DUE TO THE
UNIMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...BUT CAN NOT BE RULE OUT
BECAUSE OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER OF SHEAR. THIS COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL ROTATION TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL ACROSS SOME OF OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MIGRATES NORTHEAST THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END WEDNESDAY. WEATHER SHOULD BE CALM AND QUIET
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IMPACTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

78.JG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  50  41  58  39 / 100  90  50  10   0
WACO, TX              54  55  39  61  35 / 100  80  30  10   0
PARIS, TX             48  50  38  53  35 /  90  90  70  10   0
DENTON, TX            46  48  38  58  35 / 100  90  50  10   0
MCKINNEY, TX          48  49  38  56  36 / 100  90  60  10   0
DALLAS, TX            51  51  41  58  39 / 100  90  50  10   0
TERRELL, TX           52  52  39  57  36 / 100  90  50  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         55  56  39  59  38 / 100  90  50  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            56  57  39  60  36 / 100  70  30  10   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     48  49  38  59  34 / 100  80  40   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
256 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-231230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
256 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL MAINLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO CENTERVILLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR OVERNIGHT AREA WIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. A
FEW STORMS IN THE MORNING MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO HEARNE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME STREET AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
AS WELL AS SOME FLASH FLOODING. RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN MAY ALSO
CAUSE RISES INTO THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE CATEGORY ALONG PARTS OF THE
EAST FORK TRINITY...THE MAIN STEM TRINITY RIVER FROM DALLAS/FORT
WORTH METROPLEX SOUTHWARD AND ALSO ALONG THE NAVASOTA RIVER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO REGION WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED AFTER MIDNIGHT
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO CENTERVILLE.