River Flood Warning 133, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
356 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across North and
Central Texas this afternoon. This is the first of what will
likely be multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the
next 72 hours. At the surface...a remnant outflow boundary slid
southward into the region earlier today and helped focus initial
thunderstorm development beneath an increasingly favorable pattern
aloft. Since these storms have developed...several smaller outflow
boundaries have been produced and lie scattered across North
Texas. The pattern aloft features a slow moving upper trough over
the southwest U.S. in which several smaller disturbances are
rotating around and into the Southern Plains. These smaller
disturbances are providing periods of enhanced large scale forcing
for ascent within an increasingly moist buoyant atmosphere.

In the immediate short term...think showers and thunderstorms will
continue to slowly move east through the evening hours. The air to
the east of I-35 is a little more unstable with some drier air
aloft which may help to enhance downdrafts within the convection.
While this may serve to locally enhance the severe threat with the
strongest storms...it should also help the entire area of
precipitation move eastward through late tonight. That being
said...increasing southerly low level flow will also serve to keep
a steady fetch of rich Gulf of Mexico moisture streaming
northward. High PoPs will continue through tonight...although we
may see a brief decrease in the activity the later we get into
the nighttime hours and early Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday...with persistent deep southerly flow...the
atmosphere across the region will become more tropical-like with
PW values increasing to around 1.8 inches. Soundings across the
area will feature tall-skinny CAPE with generally weak wind
profiles. In addition...flow at 250mb becomes increasingly
diffluent. This should allow for convection with increased
precipitation efficiency and very heavy rainfall rates. Coverage
of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow is expected to be high
although pinning down the locations of heaviest rainfall will be
tough. An expansion and extension of the flash flood watch will
likely need to be considered during this time. The severe weather
threat on Wednesday will generally be low...although the strongest
cells could produce some locally strong winds owing to
precipitation loading.

The nearly vertically stacked upper low will get closer to the
area Wednesday night into Thursday which will keep North and
Central Texas within the persistent region of forcing for ascent.
Continued redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms is expected
during this time. Given the unidirectional wind profile within a
saturated column...bands of training echoes are expected somewhere
across North and Central Texas. These bands will produce very
intense rainfall. High PoPs will continue across the entire area
through Thursday...although it will not rain continuously during
this time.

As the upper low begins to slowly drift to the south on Friday and
Saturday...rain chances will begin to diminish from north to
south. A very quick glance at some longer range guidance suggests
that after this week we may get into a period of drier weather.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 114 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/
A line of showers and thunderstorms currently extends from roughly
K0F2 to KMWL to KMKN, with an additional area of convection now
moving northeastward out of the Concho Valley. This convection
will continue to progress towards the TAF sites through the early
afternoon hours and should begin impacting the Metroplex TAF
locations starting around the 19Z-20Z time frame. Based on
upstream observations, anticipate MVFR cigs/visibilities within
convective elements.

Thereafter, the current expectation is for showers and storms to
move east of the Metroplex this evening and into the overnight
hours. High-resolution guidance continues to suggest that another
convective complex/MCS will then organize across the Texas
Panhandle and track eastward towards North Central Texas, but this
activity should not arrive until early tomorrow morning. Owing to
uncertainties regarding the evolution of this next complex,
continue to prevail VCTS and SHRA during this period, but
additional refinements in timing will be made as the evolution of
this system becomes more clear.

For the DFW extended TAF, have thrown in VCSH after 22Z tomorrow
to account for additional shower/thunderstorm development as
additional lift overspreads the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  79  67  79  67 /  80  80  60  70  60
Waco                68  79  67  78  65 /  80  80  80  70  60
Paris               67  79  67  80  66 /  70  70  60  70  50
Denton              67  77  65  78  65 /  80  80  60  70  50
McKinney            67  79  66  78  65 /  80  80  60  70  60
Dallas              70  79  67  78  68 /  80  80  70  70  60
Terrell             68  80  67  79  66 /  70  80  70  70  60
Corsicana           69  80  68  78  67 /  60  80  70  70  60
Temple              68  80  67  78  65 /  80  80  80  70  60
Mineral Wells       67  77  65  77  64 /  80  80  60  70  50

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ091>093-
100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145-156>160-174.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011245-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
321 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PARTS OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH COMBINED WITH NEARLY SATURATED
SOILS...MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT WEST OF A SHERMAN TO DALLAS TO HEARNE LINE.

LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS...WITH THE MAIN RISKS BEING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING...EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF A SHERMAN TO DALLAS TO HEARNE
LINE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.

STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END LATE SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ON A VERY LIMITED BASIS.
SPOTTERS ARE ADDITIONALLY ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
307 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     FLASH FLOOD      STEPHENVILLE            32.23N  98.20W
05/31/2016                   ERATH              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS MULTIPLE HIGH WATER RESCUES
            ONGOING IN ERATH COUNTY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
311 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W DUBLIN              32.08N  98.35W
05/31/2016                   ERATH              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS HWY 6 BETWEEN DE LEON AND DUBLIN IS
            FLOODED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
315 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GRANBURY                32.45N  97.80W
05/31/2016                   HOOD               TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO REPORTS WIDESPREAD FLOODING. MULTIPLE HIGH
            WATER RESCUES ONGOING ACROSS THE COUNTY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NE LIPAN              32.56N  98.00W
05/31/2016                   HOOD               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS HWY 1189 AT FM 1543 IS FLOODED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
428 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W JOSHUA              32.47N  97.40W
05/31/2016                   JOHNSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSURES REPORTED ALONG PORTIONS OF COUNTY ROADS
            910, 920, 1106, 1116, 1202, 1205, 1226 AND OLD FOAMY RD IN
	    JOHNSON COUNTY.

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