River Flood Warning 128, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
114 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.AVIATION...
A line of showers and thunderstorms currently extends from roughly
K0F2 to KMWL to KMKN, with an additional area of convection now
moving northeastward out of the Concho Valley. This convection
will continue to progress towards the TAF sites through the early
afternoon hours and should begin impacting the Metroplex TAF
locations starting around the 19Z-20Z time frame. Based on
upstream observations, anticipate MVFR cigs/visibilities within
convective elements.

Thereafter, the current expectation is for showers and storms to
move east of the Metroplex this evening and into the overnight
hours. High-resolution guidance continues to suggest that another
convective complex/MCS will then organize across the Texas
Panhandle and track eastward towards North Central Texas, but this
activity should not arrive until early tomorrow morning. Owing to
uncertainties regarding the evolution of this next complex,
continue to prevail VCTS and SHRA during this period, but
additional refinements in timing will be made as the evolution of
this system becomes more clear.

For the DFW extended TAF, have thrown in VCSH after 22Z tomorrow
to account for additional shower/thunderstorm development as
additional lift overspreads the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Morning surface analysis showed a well defined outflow boundary
moving through southern Oklahoma and into North Texas. Convergence
along this boundary has increased and scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms have developed over the last hour. The
environment across North Texas is moderately unstable with the 12Z
FWD sounding indicating steep 700-500mb lapse rates although low
level wind fields are fairly weak. Latest RAP guidance along with
water vapor imagery suggest that a weak shortwave may have rotated
around the upper low over the southwest U.S. and is moving across
northwest TX. There is a pocket of slightly enhanced mid and upper
level winds moving through the area which may be providing some
larger scale forcing. Thunderstorms this morning into early
afternoon will have some potential to become severe...although
they should remain multi-cellular in nature posing mainly a small
hail and gusty wind threat.

The bigger threat will quickly become flash flooding as rich low
level moisture is already in place and a moistening of the
atmosphere aloft continues through tonight. PW values around 1.5
inches this morning will approach 1.8-1.9 inches overnight
tonight. Precipitation efficiency is expected to increase later
today and tonight as the atmosphere becomes more tropical in
nature. Some of our northwest counties have already received heavy
rainfall and with continued rain chances through the week...a
Flash Flood Watch will be issued for a good chunk of the North and
Central TX through tomorrow night. This will likely be expanded in
area and time with subsequent forecast issuances.

Dunn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/
An upper level low currently over southwest Arizona will be the
main weather maker for the the rest of the work week and through
the weekend. This system will move east into West Texas Wednesday
night and into Central Texas Thursday. All of the main models
indicate that the upper low will then meander across Central
Texas Thursday night through Saturday before eventually sinking
south. The GFS indicates that the low will sink south and then
southeast off the lower Texas coast by Monday while the ECMWF
keeps the system over South Texas through Monday Night and
opens it up to an upper level trough Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Weak Upper level ridging should start to build in from the west
during the early part of next week.

A shortwave over southwest Texas this morning will move northeast
across North and Central Texas today. Lift associated with this
system along with increasing low level moisture will result in
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from southwest to
northeast today, especially along and west of the I-35 corridor.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
from the Texas Panhandle northeast across Oklahoma. This activity
will move southeast into North Texas this evening and tonight.
Some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly across
the northwestern zones. Locally heavy rain is also expected with
these storms.

As the upper level low sits across Central Texas Wednesday
through Saturday, expect several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. With increasing precipitable water values and
saturated or nearly saturated grounds from recent rainfall, the
potential for flash flooding will increase. A Flash Flood Watch
will likely be needed for parts, if not all, of North and Central
Texas for the Wednesday through Friday period. The best rain
chances should start to shift southward Saturday night and
Sunday but some low chances will continue across Central Texas
into Monday.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    84  68  81  67  79 /  50  60  70  60  70
Waco                85  68  81  66  79 /  40  50  70  60  70
Paris               85  68  80  66  79 /  50  50  70  60  70
Denton              83  67  79  65  78 /  60  60  70  60  70
McKinney            84  67  79  66  79 /  50  60  70  60  70
Dallas              85  69  82  67  80 /  50  60  70  60  70
Terrell             85  68  81  67  79 /  40  50  70  60  70
Corsicana           86  70  81  68  80 /  30  40  60  60  70
Temple              84  68  80  67  78 /  40  50  70  70  70
Mineral Wells       83  66  79  65  77 /  70  60  70  60  60

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ091>093-
100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145-156>160-174.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
354 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-010900-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
354 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20...THEN ALL OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO FLOODING IN
SOME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL SHIFT TO HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING...EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END LATE SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MOST LIKELY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
236 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW SANTO              32.63N  98.26W
05/31/2016                   PALO PINTO         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO HIGH WATER REPORTED IN PALO
	    PINTO COUNTY. FM 4 AT SOUTH LAKEVIEW DR., 281 NEAR DOBBS
	    VALLEY, FM 129 OVER PALO PINTO CREEK AT THE SOUTH END OF
	    BRAZOS.