Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
940 AM MST SAT AUG 06 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly from
Flagstaff north and east today. Storms will become more isolated and
located mainly near the New mexico border by Sunday and Monday. A
surge in tropical moisture will bring active conditions back to the
area by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A glance at the sky this morning indicates decent
instability in the boundary layer and up through about 500mb. The
12z KFLG sounding supports this, with drier and somewhat more stable
air above 500mb. With this profile and deeper moisture still to our
east, there is potential today, for a severe thunderstorm or two.
The best chance of this would be northeast of Flagstaff. To the west
of Flagstaff, the airmass will continue to slowly dry and stabilize.
By Sunday and Monday, most activity will be near the New Mexico
border. The current forecast covers this well, no updates.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms today, with higher chances over eastern
Arizona in Apache and Navajo counties. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Bohlin

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
520 AM MST SAT AUG 6 2016

AZZ004>018-037>040-070600-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
520 AM MST SAT AUG 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
259 PM MST SAT AUG 6 2016

AZZ006-007-062230-
GRAND CANYON COUNTRY AZ-COCONINO PLATEAU AZ-
259 PM MST SAT AUG 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
MST...

AT 258 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES WEST OF TUSAYAN...OR 27 MILES WEST OF DESERT VIEW AT GRAND
CANYON... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TEN-X CAMPGROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 11237 3580 11247 3607 11231 3595 11209
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 215DEG 14KT 3592 11229

MOTTICE