Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2016
Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this special weather statement at Aug 5, 2016, 6:09 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 36 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 5, 2016, 6:09 PM MST (01:09 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 5, 2016, 6:45 PM MST
- In force
- 36 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
County Yavapai County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 14 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -54 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1613 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -20 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 13 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 5, 4:05 PM MST, 2 hours 4 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 5, 4:05 PM MST, 2 hours 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 405 PM MST FRI AUG 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Widespread showers and thunderstorms will move through the Four Corners region through this evening. Beginning Saturday, a slow drying trend will cause decreasing chances for showers and thunderstorms into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Robust morning convective activity over the Phoenix area likely at least partially forced by a mesoscale short wave trough over southwestern AZ has continued northeastward through the day today. Widespread rainfall has now moved into northeast Arizona, largely north of Interstate 40 with isolated/scattered activity back over Yavapai/western Coconino counties. Differences in timing/placement details have been there, but successive runs of the HRRR have made fairly good forecasts of the general northeastward movement of storms from PHX up through northeast AZ today. Expect most of this activity to exit our forecast area by around 10-11 pm MST, so the Flash Flood Watch should expire on time. Saturday begins a downward trend in coverage/rainfall rates from convective activity over northern Arizona. Rain is a possibility anywhere on Saturday, but most likely from about I-17/US 89 east. A slow and steady decrease in storm coverage is expected to continue through Sunday, with precipitable water values early next week expected to be below 0.75" over most of northern Arizona according to the GEFS ensemble mean. An increase in thunderstorm activity is a possibility around the middle to the end of next week. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z package...SCT SHRA/TSRA with ISOLD MVFR/IFR conditions decreasing in coverage and intensity after 03-05z. The greatest coverage will be over far northeastern AZ. ISOLD/SCT -SHRA/-TSRA will continue overnight. ISOLD- SCT SHRA/TSRA with ISOLD MVFR/IFR conditions will develop again after 17Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ005- 009>011-039-040. && PUBLIC...AT AVIATION...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 5, 10:02 AM MST, 8 hours 7 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1002 AM MST FRI AUG 5 2016 AZZ004>018-037>040-060730- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 1002 AM MST FRI AUG 5 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. A CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE PHOENIX AREA SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE RECENT RAINS HAVE LEFT SOILS SATURATED. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. SEE PHXFFAFGZ FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 5, 2:22 PM MST, 3 hours 47 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 222 PM MST FRI AUG 5 2016 AZZ008-037-052145- YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS AZ-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS AZ- 222 PM MST FRI AUG 5 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM MST... AT 222 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST NORTH OF PAULDEN...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF CHINO VALLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PAULDEN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3491 11262 3501 11244 3488 11230 3476 11254 TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 313DEG 10KT 3492 11249 MOTTICE
Special weather statement, Aug 5, 5:10 PM MST, 59 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 510 PM MST FRI AUG 5 2016 AZZ008-037-060045- YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS AZ-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS AZ- 510 PM MST FRI AUG 5 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM MST... AT 510 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 23 MILES NORTHEAST OF BAGDAD...OR 27 MILES WEST OF CHINO VALLEY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3476 11299 3489 11302 3497 11282 3472 11276 TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 261DEG 8KT 3484 11292 MCS
Special weather statement, Aug 5, 6:09 PM MST, 0 minutes before
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</html>The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 5:10 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | Yavapai | 35 min |
| Aug 5, 5:20 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Apache | 115 min |
| Aug 5, 6:21 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Yavapai | 3 hr |
| Aug 6, 11:33 AM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 27 min |
| Aug 6, 11:59 AM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 17 min |
| Aug 6, 2:59 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | Coconino | 31 min |
| Aug 6, 3:14 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | Coconino | 31 min |
| Aug 6, 3:45 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | Yavapai | 30 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2016Every special weather statement in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.