Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 19, 2016

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this special weather statement at Jul 19, 2016, 1:16 PM MST. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 19, 2016, 1:16 PM MST (20:16 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2016, 2:00 PM MST
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 166 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 184 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -262 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2155 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 7 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -12 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 10 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 19, 9:36 AM MST, 3 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 9:36 AM MST, 3 hours 40 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
936 AM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will continue to bring a chance of
showers and thundertorms through Thursday. Strong high pressure
and drier air could result in a downturn in activity toward the
end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A wet Monsoon weather pattern continues as the
subtropical ridge is in a favorable position for northward
advection of moisture into Arizona. Expect good coverage for
showers and thunderstorms with subtle changes in the location of
the heavy rainfall from day to day. The morning forecast grids
look good no updates.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /242 AM MST/...A wide area of high pressure aloft
remained centered over the Oklahoma/Kansas border. The models
continue to promise little movement in this high pressure feature
over the next few days. The position of the high is placing
southerly flow over Arizona with not much change in the moisture
profile through Thursday. Moving forward the distribution of
showers and thunderstorms will remain very similar to Monday.
Isolated heavy rain amounts of an inch or more and localized
flooding will be possible. More generally, amounts in the trace to
quarter inch category scattered about northern Arizona.

From Friday onward...Models show the high pressure system centered
over Oklahoma essentially splitting. The western portion of the
high will migrate across Arizona and eventually become established
over the western United States. If this pattern transpires it will
open the door to an influx of drier air from the west. Forecast
grids reflect a downturn in monsoon activity but moisture looks
too entrenched for a complete shutdown in monsoon activity. We'll
keep you updated.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Primarily VFR conditions are
expected for the next 24 hours with bkn cigs aoa 14kft msl. Look
for sct-nmrs SHRA/TSRA between 17z-02z, especially over mountain
areas. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty winds possible with
stronger storms. Precipitation coverage decreasing after 02z Wed.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect another round of thunderstorms over the
forecast area today and Wednesday. Storm motion will generally be
from the south to north 5-10 mph.

Thursday through Saturday...Scattered thunderstorms will persist
across the area on Thursday. Drier air filtering into Arizona from
the west will bring a decrease in thunderstorm activity on Friday
and Saturday...with minimum RH's dropping back into the teens to the
north and west of Flagstaff.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...Bohlin/McCollum
AVIATION...CLM
FIRE WEATHER...DL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 19, 2:41 AM MST, 10 hours 35 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
241 AM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

AZZ004>018-037>040-200330-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
241 AM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT ABOUT THE SAME LEVEL THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER OVER ARIZONA STARTING FRIDAY WITH A
DOWNTURN IN MONSOON ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 1:16 PM MST, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
116 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

AZZ016>018-192100-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AZ-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AZ-WHITE MOUNTAINS AZ-
116 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL GILA AND SOUTHERN
NAVAJO COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM MST...

AT 115 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CEDAR CREEK...OR 29 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHOW LOW...MOVING NORTH
AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CEDAR CREEK AROUND 130 PM MST.
  CARRIZO AROUND 145 PM MST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3383 11032 3383 11037 3404 11030 3394 11003
      3374 11022
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 202DEG 15KT 3385 11028

RB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 18, 5:08 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Navajo	112 min
Jul 18, 5:29 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Apache	46 min
Jul 18, 6:09 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 18, 7:12 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		33 min
Jul 19, 11:02 AM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 19, 11:33 AM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 19, 11:55 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	2 hr
Jul 19, 12:51 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino	3 hr
Jul 19, 1:09 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Gila	2 hr
Jul 19, 1:40 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Gila, Navajo	3 hr
Jul 19, 1:58 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		32 min
Jul 19, 2:02 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Gila, Navajo	4 hr
Jul 19, 3:21 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino	3 hr
Jul 19, 4:00 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Gila	3 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.