Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

343 
WGUS75 KFGZ 192312
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
412 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

AZC007-017-200100-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160720T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GILA AZ-NAVAJO AZ-
412 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MST FOR
EASTERN GILA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTIES...

AT 409 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE CEDAR CREEK FIRE SCAR AREA. RADAR
ESTIMATES THAT UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ALONG
THE NORTHERN PART OF FIRE SCAR. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE CEDAR FIRE SCAR WILL LIKELY TRIGGER LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
FIRE AREA. RESIDENCES IN THE COMMUNITY OF CEDAR CREEK MAY BE AFFECTED
BY HIGH WATER AND DEBRIS. SOME ROADWAYS WILL BE INUNDATED OR WASHED
OUT. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. AREAS IMPACTED BY THIS
WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CARRIZO...THE CEDAR CREEK
COMMUNITY...LONG TOM CANYON...CEDAR CANYON...AND US HIGHWAY 60 FROM
CARRIZO TO FORESTDALE.

&&

LAT...LON 3411 11007 3399 11006 3391 11013 3382 11024
      3389 11022 3404 11023 3412 11017

$$

SUK

845 
WGUS75 KFGZ 200054
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
554 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

AZC007-017-200102-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160720T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GILA AZ-NAVAJO AZ-
554 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN GILA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NAVAJO
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 600 PM MST...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. THE MAIN THREAT OF FLOODING HAS PASSED.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3411 11007 3399 11006 3391 11013 3382 11024
      3389 11022 3404 11023 3412 11017

$$

SUK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
936 AM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will continue to bring a chance of
showers and thundertorms through Thursday. Strong high pressure
and drier air could result in a downturn in activity toward the
end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A wet Monsoon weather pattern continues as the
subtropical ridge is in a favorable position for northward
advection of moisture into Arizona. Expect good coverage for
showers and thunderstorms with subtle changes in the location of
the heavy rainfall from day to day. The morning forecast grids
look good no updates.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /242 AM MST/...A wide area of high pressure aloft
remained centered over the Oklahoma/Kansas border. The models
continue to promise little movement in this high pressure feature
over the next few days. The position of the high is placing
southerly flow over Arizona with not much change in the moisture
profile through Thursday. Moving forward the distribution of
showers and thunderstorms will remain very similar to Monday.
Isolated heavy rain amounts of an inch or more and localized
flooding will be possible. More generally, amounts in the trace to
quarter inch category scattered about northern Arizona.

From Friday onward...Models show the high pressure system centered
over Oklahoma essentially splitting. The western portion of the
high will migrate across Arizona and eventually become established
over the western United States. If this pattern transpires it will
open the door to an influx of drier air from the west. Forecast
grids reflect a downturn in monsoon activity but moisture looks
too entrenched for a complete shutdown in monsoon activity. We'll
keep you updated.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Primarily VFR conditions are
expected for the next 24 hours with bkn cigs aoa 14kft msl. Look
for sct-nmrs SHRA/TSRA between 17z-02z, especially over mountain
areas. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty winds possible with
stronger storms. Precipitation coverage decreasing after 02z Wed.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect another round of thunderstorms over the
forecast area today and Wednesday. Storm motion will generally be
from the south to north 5-10 mph.

Thursday through Saturday...Scattered thunderstorms will persist
across the area on Thursday. Drier air filtering into Arizona from
the west will bring a decrease in thunderstorm activity on Friday
and Saturday...with minimum RH's dropping back into the teens to the
north and west of Flagstaff.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...Bohlin/McCollum
AVIATION...CLM
FIRE WEATHER...DL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
241 AM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

AZZ004>018-037>040-200330-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
241 AM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AT ABOUT THE SAME LEVEL THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER OVER ARIZONA STARTING FRIDAY WITH A
DOWNTURN IN MONSOON ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
116 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

AZZ016>018-192100-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AZ-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AZ-WHITE MOUNTAINS AZ-
116 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL GILA AND SOUTHERN
NAVAJO COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM MST...

AT 115 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CEDAR CREEK...OR 29 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHOW LOW...MOVING NORTH
AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CEDAR CREEK AROUND 130 PM MST.
  CARRIZO AROUND 145 PM MST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3383 11032 3383 11037 3404 11030 3394 11003
      3374 11022
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 202DEG 15KT 3385 11028

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
158 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

AZZ010-192130-
CHINLE VALLEY AZ-
158 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN APACHE COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM MST...

AT 157 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHILCHINBITO...OR 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHINLE...
MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROUGH ROCK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3635 10974 3641 10991 3667 10985 3656 10955
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 200DEG 8KT 3643 10979

MOTTICE