Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
311 PM MST FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect active monsoon weather through Saturday with
good coverage of showers and thunderstorms each day. Starting
Sunday a drier westerly flow across Arizona will bring a downturn
in activity heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Ongoing showers and thunderstorms over Coconino,
Yavapai, and Gila counties will continue to drift east this
evening before tapering off after dark. Only isolated to
scattered activity is expected overnight. Moisture begins its slow
exit beginning Saturday afternoon, though enough should linger
for thunderstorms to form from the Grand Canyon southeast along
the Mogollon Rim before dissipating again Saturday night.

Starting Sunday...Westerly flow continues the drying trend,
leaving most of northern Arizona with sunny skies and dry weather
into the middle of next week. Enough moisture may linger for some
showers and thunderstorms over the White Mountains. Long-range
models indicate a brief return of moisture and thunderstorm
chances for eastern portions of Arizona beginning Wednesday, as
high pressure sets up over Texas once again. The moisture surge
remains short-lived, however, as the models then sweep a low
pressure trough through the region, drying out northern Arizona
once again. This solution remains uncertain at this time, however,
and will warrant watching as we enter the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will dimish after 03Z. With SCT to ISOLD -tsra
overnight. Expect MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty winds with the
stronger storms. Scattered thunderstorms will redevelop on Saturday
by 17Z...mainly over the higher terrain.  Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop on Saturday, with only a few isolated storms on Sunday as
drier air filters into the area. Storm motion will be from
the west to the east.

Monday through Wednesday...only a few isolated storm are expected
through the period over the higher terrain...with generally fair
weather as a dry westerly flow develops across the area.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TRC
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1100 AM MST FRI JUL 1 2016

AZZ004>018-037>040-021200-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
1100 AM MST FRI JUL 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN TODAY WILL BE YAVAPAI AND SOUTHWEST
COCONINO COUNTIES...WHERE CLEARING SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AND LIFTING ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE
INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY SUPPRESSING DIURNAL HEATING AND THEREFORE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED FROM THE
GRAND CANYON SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT MORE ISOLATED NEAR-SEVERE HAIL...UP TO QUARTER SIZE IN
THE STRONGEST STORMS...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS REPLACING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY BY MONDAY...WITH ONLY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS RETAINING CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
254 PM MST FRI JUL 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             PAYSON                  34.24N 111.33W
07/01/2016  M0.70 INCH       GILA               AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1600196

ML

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