Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

779 
WGUS75 KFGZ 021210
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
510 AM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

AZC007-025-021345-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-160702T1345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GILA AZ-YAVAPAI AZ-
510 AM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 AM MST FOR
WEST CENTRAL GILA AND SOUTHEASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTIES...

AT 502 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR INDICATES THAT A LARGE AREA
FROM JUST SOUTH OF RYE TO JAKES CORNER HAS RECEIVED OVER 2 INCHES OF
RAIN SINCE 2 AM MST...WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLY RECEIVING NEARLY 3
INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
JAKES CORNER...RYE AND DEER CREEK. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...TONTO
CREEK...RYE CREEK...BOONE MOORE WASH...HORSE CREEK...SOUTH FORK
DEADMAN CREEK...WET BOTTOM CREEK...DEADMAN CREEK...NORTH FORK
DEADMAN CREEK...SYCAMORE CREEK AND DAVENPORT WASH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

REMAIN ALERT FOR FLOODING EVEN IN LOCATIONS NOT RECEIVING RAIN. DRY
WASHES...STREAMS...AND RIVERS CAN BECOME RAGING KILLER CURRENTS IN A
MATTER OF MINUTES...EVEN FROM DISTANT RAINFALL.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 11142 3401 11143 3401 11150 3405 11166
      3415 11165 3415 11144 3404 11117 3393 11121

$$
JJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
925 PM MST FRI JUL 01 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect active monsoon weather through Saturday with
showers and thunderstorms each day. Starting Sunday, drier westerly
flow across Arizona will bring a downturn in activity heading into
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Another active day is still ongoing tonight, although
storm intensity/coverage has dropped way off. An outflow from a an
old storm in southwest Utah is currently affecting the I-40 corridor
from Kingman to Flagstaff and some weak convective development is
evident as a result. Another stronger complex in southern Nevada may
affect western and central Arizona later tonight and early Saturday
morning. The HRRR has been insistent about this and it warrants
some attention.

We will tweak the POP grids to reflect a better chance after
midnight. Otherwise, trends look good and no further updates will be
needed.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Expect sct shra/tsra
through 12z-14z, mainly north and west of a KPRC to KFLG line as
outflow boundaries from Nevada and Utah affect the area. Scattered
shra/tsra and isold +tsra will continue aft 18z-19z Saturday along
and north of the Mogollon Rim. Strongest storms will contain brief
mvfr/ifr conditions and gusty winds. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
persist again on Saturday, with only a few isolated storms on Sunday
as drier air filters into the area. Storm motion will be from the
west to the east.

Monday through Wednesday...Only a few isolated storms are expected
through the period over the higher terrain as dry westerly flow
develops across the area.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...BAK/Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1100 AM MST FRI JUL 1 2016

AZZ004>018-037>040-021200-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
1100 AM MST FRI JUL 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN TODAY WILL BE YAVAPAI AND SOUTHWEST
COCONINO COUNTIES...WHERE CLEARING SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AND LIFTING ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE
INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY SUPPRESSING DIURNAL HEATING AND THEREFORE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED FROM THE
GRAND CANYON SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT MORE ISOLATED NEAR-SEVERE HAIL...UP TO QUARTER SIZE IN
THE STRONGEST STORMS...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS REPLACING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY BY MONDAY...WITH ONLY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS RETAINING CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
331 AM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

AZZ007-008-037-021100-
COCONINO PLATEAU AZ-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS AZ-
YAVAPAI COUNTY  MOUNTAINS AZ-
331 AM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN YAVAPAI AND
SOUTHWESTERN COCONINO COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM MST...

AT 329 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF SELIGMAN
TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DIAMOND M RANCH...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SELIGMAN. INTERSTATE 40 FROM MILE POST 110 TO 135.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3558 11299 3552 11240 3504 11270 3509 11323
TIME...MOT...LOC 1029Z 275DEG 36KT 3548 11282 3513 11304

JJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
358 AM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

AZZ007-008-015-037-021145-
COCONINO PLATEAU AZ-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS AZ-
YAVAPAI COUNTY  MOUNTAINS AZ-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM AZ-
358 AM MST SAT JUL 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL YAVAPAI AND CENTRAL
COCONINO COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM MST...

AT 356 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES NORTH OF ASH FORK
TO 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAULDEN...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILLIAMS...PERKINSVILLE...ASH FORK...KAIBAB LAKE CAMPGROUND AND DOGTOWN
LAKE CAMPGROUND. INTERSTATE 40 FROM MILE POST 130 TO 170.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3548 11194 3489 11217 3500 11282 3556 11256
TIME...MOT...LOC 1056Z 279DEG 37KT 3549 11253 3504 11273

JJ