Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
358 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a cooling trend and increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms heading into the weekend. The best
chance for heavy rain and a few strong storms will be south of
Flagstaff today.

&&

.UPDATE...High pressure is centered over southern NV/northwestern
AZ today keeping a general northwesterly flow over the area.
convective showers and thunderstorms have developed over the
mountainous terrain of northern AZ. Moisture and instability
remain greatest south of the Mogollon Rim in Yavapai/Gila
Counties where southward propagating outflow boundaries may
trigger additional thunderstorms this evening. There is enough
instability in this area to support a few strong to severe storms
producing damaging winds and large hail. Locally heavy rain
causing flash flooding is also possible. The chance for showers
will continue overnight.

This weekend will continue to see an active monsoon pattern with
good chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. As moisture
continues to increase across the area, the threat for heavy rain
and flooding will increase.

A favorable monsoonal pattern continues next week as mid level
high pressure eventually sets up east of Arizona allowing a deep
southerly flow to develop. Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue and this may elevate the threat for
flooding as soils begin to saturate. The increased showers/storms
this weekend and next week will keep temperatures slightly below
average.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING THROUGH THE GRAND CANYON AND SHOW LOW.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY. MOSTLY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...SCATTERED LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
648 AM MST FRI JUL 29 2016

AZZ004>018-037>040-300515-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
648 AM MST FRI JUL 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND I-40 CORRIDOR. SOME STORMS IN
YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAIN AND
SOME HAIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXPECT VERY ACTIVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE STATE. STORMS
DURING THIS PERIOD MAY BE LONG-LIVED AND MAY BRING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL TO LARGER AREAS. SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...WITH
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS BEING IN YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
450 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WNW MILEPOST 295 ON I 34.66N 111.81W
07/29/2016  E70 MPH          YAVAPAI            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS AND PEA SIZED HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1600216

CLM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
535 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016

AZZ008-037-300100-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS AZ-YAVAPAI COUNTY  MOUNTAINS AZ-
535 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 600
PM MST...

AT 533 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF SPRING VALLEY...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAMP
VERDE. THE STORM IS NEARLY STATIONARY. INTERSTATE 17 BETWEEN CAMP
VERDE AND CORDES JUNCTION MAY BE IMPACTED.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORDES JUNCTION...SPRING VALLEY...CORDES LAKES AND POWELL SPRINGS
CAMPGROUND.

LAT...LON 3461 11208 3453 11194 3430 11210 3437 11225
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 029DEG 31KT 3444 11209

RR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
601 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             MILEPOST 265 ON SR 69   34.34N 112.15W
07/29/2016  M1.00 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR SPRING VALLEY NORTH OF CORDES JUNCTION

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1600217

JJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
608 PM MST FRI JUL 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WNW MILEPOST 295 ON I 34.66N 111.81W
07/29/2016  E70 MPH          YAVAPAI            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS AND PEA SIZED HAIL.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1600216

CLM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>