Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

925 
WGUS75 KFGZ 111201
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
501 AM MST THU AUG 11 2016

AZC007-017-111330-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-160811T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GILA AZ-NAVAJO AZ-
501 AM MST THU AUG 11 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 AM MST FOR
GILA AND NAVAJO COUNTIES...

AT 456 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CEDARWILD FIRE BURN SCAR. UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN WITH ANOTHER 1 INCH POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN WAS
STILL OCCURRING OVER WEST CEDAR CREEK AND HAS ALSO SHIFTED EAST
OVER EAST CEDAR CREEK.  FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE BURN SCAR WILL RESULT IN DEBRIS FLOW
MOVING THROUGH THE DRAINAGES. THE DEBRIS FLOW CAN CONSIST OF
ROCK...MUD...VEGETATION AND OTHER LOOSE MATERIALS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
FORT APACHE RESERVATION AND WHITE MOUNTAIN APACHE RESERVATION. 


THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...CEDAR CREEK AND
CORDUROY CREEK.

LAW ENFORCEMENT IS REPORTING LARGE BOULDERS ON HWY 60

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE CEDAR FIRE SCAR WILL LIKELY TRIGGER LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
FIRE AREA. RESIDENCES IN THE COMMUNITY OF CEDAR CREEK MAY BE AFFECTED
BY HIGH WATER AND DEBRIS. SOME ROADWAYS WILL BE INUNDATED OR WASHED
OUT. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. AREAS IMPACTED BY THIS
WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CARRIZO...THE CEDAR CREEK
COMMUNITY...LONG TOM CANYON...CEDAR CANYON...AND US HIGHWAY 60 FROM
CARRIZO TO FORESTDALE.

&&

LAT...LON 3404 11008 3393 11010 3388 11018 3405 11022
      3409 11018 3410 11013 3408 11009

$$

TC

482 
WGUS75 KFGZ 111333
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
633 AM MST THU AUG 11 2016

AZC007-017-111340-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-160811T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GILA AZ-NAVAJO AZ-
633 AM MST THU AUG 11 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR GILA AND NAVAJO COUNTIES HAS
EXPIRED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED AND CREEK
LEVELS ALONG CEDAR CREEK ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO HEED ANY CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3404 11008 3393 11010 3388 11018 3405 11022
      3409 11018 3410 11013 3408 11009

$$

TC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
920 PM MST WED AUG 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a drying and warming trend to develop in the next
few days, but especially over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...It is possible that being directly under a 70kt jet
streak today hampered things dynamically, instead of helping. It is
also quite possible that there was just a little too much shear and
a little too much drying above 500mb, hard to tell. Either way, the
situation did not pan out as planned and the day was on the quiet
side.

We have decreased pops overnight and cancelled the Flash Flood Watch
as a result. Updates are already published.

The next several days will feature a noticeable drying trend, with
any appreciable chances for wetting rainfall ending after Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...SCT -SHRA/-TSRA with
ISOLD +TSRA will slowly diminish after 02z. Expect MVFR and IFR
conditions in SHRA/TSRA. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA will develop
again after 17Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST WED AUG 10 2016

AZZ004>018-037>040-110415-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
910 AM MST WED AUG 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ON THURSDAY...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.