Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

483 
WGUS75 KFGZ 110923
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
223 AM MST THU AUG 11 2016

AZC005-007-111030-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0046.000000T0000Z-160811T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GILA AZ-COCONINO AZ-
223 AM MST THU AUG 11 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 AM MST FOR
GILA AND COCONINO COUNTIES...

AT 217 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER PYEATT DRAW. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN WITH ADDITIONAL 1.0 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM THIS NEXT
ROUND OF STORMS. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN SOME
AREAS NORTHEAST OF PAYSON AND NORTH OF STAR VALLEY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NORTH PAYSON...FLOWING SPRINGS...MEAD RANCH...MESA DEL CABA...
WHISPERING PINES...FREEDOM ACRES...BEAVER VALLEY...
WATER WHEEL BURN AT HOUSTON MESA RD-S...
WATER WHEEL BURN AT HOUSTON MESA RD-N AND KNOLL LAKE CAMPGROUND.


THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...CLEAR CREEK AND
TURKEY CREEK...ELLISON CREEK, PYEATT DRAW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY OR BE SWEPT AWAY. RIVER BANKS AND CULVERTS CAN BECOME
UNSTABLE AND UNSAFE.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
&&

LAT...LON 3447 11107 3441 11101 3436 11107 3431 11115
      3427 11135 3435 11135 3442 11121

$$

TC

675 
WGUS75 KFGZ 111029
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
329 AM MST THU AUG 11 2016

AZC005-007-111036-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0046.000000T0000Z-160811T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GILA AZ-COCONINO AZ-
329 AM MST THU AUG 11 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR GILA AND COCONINO COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 330 AM MST...

THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA NORTHEAST OF PAYSON AND NORTH OF STAR
VALLEY HAS ENDED AND THE FLOOD WATERS ARE RECEDING. FLOODING IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED AS RADAR IS NOT SHOWING ANY NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE AREA. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY REMAINING ROAD CLOSURES
AS CREWS ARE WORKING TO CLEAR ROADS. 

LAT...LON 3447 11107 3441 11101 3436 11107 3431 11115
      3427 11135 3435 11135 3442 11121

$$

TC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
920 PM MST WED AUG 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a drying and warming trend to develop in the next
few days, but especially over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...It is possible that being directly under a 70kt jet
streak today hampered things dynamically, instead of helping. It is
also quite possible that there was just a little too much shear and
a little too much drying above 500mb, hard to tell. Either way, the
situation did not pan out as planned and the day was on the quiet
side.

We have decreased pops overnight and cancelled the Flash Flood Watch
as a result. Updates are already published.

The next several days will feature a noticeable drying trend, with
any appreciable chances for wetting rainfall ending after Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...SCT -SHRA/-TSRA with
ISOLD +TSRA will slowly diminish after 02z. Expect MVFR and IFR
conditions in SHRA/TSRA. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA will develop
again after 17Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST WED AUG 10 2016

AZZ004>018-037>040-110415-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
910 AM MST WED AUG 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ON THURSDAY...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1016 PM MST WED AUG 10 2016

AZZ008-037-110545-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS AZ-YAVAPAI COUNTY  MOUNTAINS AZ-
1016 PM MST WED AUG 10 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 1045 PM
MST...

AT 1016 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER PONDEROSA PARK...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PRESCOTT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PRESCOTT...PRESCOTT VALLEY...PONDEROSA PARK...
PRESCOTT GATEWAY MALL...WALKER...INDIAN HILL WEST PRESCOTT...
GROOM CREEK SUBDIVISION...YAVAPAI COUNTY COURTHOUSE PRESCOTT...
OAK KNOLL VILLAGE...LOWER WOLF CREEK CAMPGROUND...
WHITE SPAR CAMPGROUND...
UPPER WOLF CREEK GROUP CAMPGROUND AND LYNX LAKE DAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3438 11251 3448 11262 3465 11242 3451 11227
TIME...MOT...LOC 0516Z 227DEG 18KT 3450 11249

MCS