Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
911 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

West winds are pushing into the far northwest FA now, with much
drier air behind them. However, the current line of storms is
feeding on the 4000J/kg of MLCAPE oriented north to south right
into the line of storms. This is on the fringe of some stronger
850mb winds as well. Latest high resolution model guidance brings
the storms into Grand Forks around 10 pm and Fargo after 11 pm.
May not reach into the Bemidji area until after midnight. However
severe potential is another question. Storms have been up and
down, and are currently on a downward trend right now. Severe
thunderstorm watch goes until 11 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

A low pressure system currently digging into northwest ND will
slide eastward along the CanAm border through the late
afternoon and evening hours. Deep layer moisture advection and
surface heating ahead of this system has /by 3pm/ developed a
broad area of quite unstable air with surface and mixed layer
CAPE exceeding 4000 j/kg and minimal CIN across central eastern
ND. RUC13 and HRRR versions are all indicating high degree of low
level /0-2 km VGP/ spin potential and instability which would
support rapid sub-cloud ascent and increased tornadic potential.
Shear profiles shud support strong overall updraft and the ability
of supercell development and maintenance.

Storms should clear from eastern ND by midnight and decrease in
intensity over northwest MN during the late overnight hours.
Somewhat cooler and drier westerly flow will develop on
Thursday.. with scattered showers are possible along the CanAm
border Thursday afternoon... mainly in backwash instability.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

The period will begin quiet as surface low pressure moves away from
the area and towards Hudson Bay. Upper ridging will build into the
Plains states as slightly cooler and drier Canadian air works its way
southward. Temperatures to end the work week and start the weekend
look to top out slightly below normal with values mainly in the mid
to upper 70s and gradually into the lower 80s.

The upper ridge begins breaking down late Sunday as an upper low
strengthens across the Pacific northwest. Models disagree a bit on
the timing and strength of this feature with the GFS much stronger
and more pronounced than the ECMWF. Regardless, several waves are
progged to move through the southwest flow ahead of this system
allowing precipitation chances to return by late Sunday/early
Monday. At this time, not able to confidently pick out the timing of
the strongest waves so generally went with slight chance/chance PoPs
through Wednesday.

Temperatures for the second half of the period will be just a tad
warmer with highs in the upper 70s across the north and low to mid
80s in the south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

Tried to indicate the best time frame for tstms at each of the TAF
sites. These should clear KDVL first, but may take well into the
evening to clear the other sites. There has not been much for tstm
activity yet, but models are indicating more coverage through the
evening. West winds look quite gusty on Thursday.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Godon

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
857 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-041400-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
857 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN EASTERN ND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIGNIFICANT HAIL...GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE...AND SOME TORNADIC ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND. STORMS WILL PRESENT MORE
OF A WIND THREAT AS THE ACTIVITY MERGES INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND
MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NW MN THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...THIS AREA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MAINLY STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

JK/LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1047 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 WNW GRAND FORKS       47.94N 97.17W
08/03/2016  M59 MPH          GRAND FORKS        ND   ASOS

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT THE GRAND FORKS INTERNATIONAL
            AIRPORT.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1049 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 PM     TSTM WND GST     GRAND FORKS AFB         47.96N 97.38W
08/03/2016  M62 MPH          GRAND FORKS        ND   OTHER FEDERAL

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT THE GFAFB.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1051 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1049 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GRAND FORKS             47.92N 97.07W
08/03/2016  E0.00 INCH       GRAND FORKS        ND   AMATEUR RADIO

            STREET FLOODING AND MINOR UNDERPASS FLOODING REPORTED.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1056 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W BISBEE              48.63N 99.44W
08/03/2016                   TOWNER             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 66 CLOSED DUE TO WATER FLOWING ACROSS. AREA
            FIELDS AND DITCHES FLOODING TGROUHGOUT GRAINFIELD...
            SORENSON....NEW CITY AND GERRARD TOWNSHIPS.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1108 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WNW HAMPDEN           48.54N 98.67W
08/03/2016  M61.00 MPH       CAVALIER           ND   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT THE HAMPDEN RAWS STATION. TIME
            ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

GGUST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1116 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

NDZ038-039-049-040500-
BARNES ND-RANSOM ND-CASS ND-
1116 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RANSOM...SOUTHEASTERN BARNES AND
SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1116 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LITTLE YELLOWSTONE TO NEAR LA MOURE
CITY. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HASTINGS AROUND 1120 PM CDT.
  LITTLE YELLOWSTONE...KATHRYN AND FORT RANSOM AROUND 1125 PM CDT.
  NOME AROUND 1140 PM CDT.
  LUCCA AROUND 1145 PM CDT.
  ENDERLIN AND ENGLEVALE AROUND 1155 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN GRAND FORKS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4629 9803 4663 9803 4663 9816 4676 9811
      4678 9715 4628 9754 4628 9782
TIME...MOT...LOC 0416Z 268DEG 29KT 4663 9804 4631 9833

KNUTSVIG