Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
911 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

West winds are pushing into the far northwest FA now, with much
drier air behind them. However, the current line of storms is
feeding on the 4000J/kg of MLCAPE oriented north to south right
into the line of storms. This is on the fringe of some stronger
850mb winds as well. Latest high resolution model guidance brings
the storms into Grand Forks around 10 pm and Fargo after 11 pm.
May not reach into the Bemidji area until after midnight. However
severe potential is another question. Storms have been up and
down, and are currently on a downward trend right now. Severe
thunderstorm watch goes until 11 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

A low pressure system currently digging into northwest ND will
slide eastward along the CanAm border through the late
afternoon and evening hours. Deep layer moisture advection and
surface heating ahead of this system has /by 3pm/ developed a
broad area of quite unstable air with surface and mixed layer
CAPE exceeding 4000 j/kg and minimal CIN across central eastern
ND. RUC13 and HRRR versions are all indicating high degree of low
level /0-2 km VGP/ spin potential and instability which would
support rapid sub-cloud ascent and increased tornadic potential.
Shear profiles shud support strong overall updraft and the ability
of supercell development and maintenance.

Storms should clear from eastern ND by midnight and decrease in
intensity over northwest MN during the late overnight hours.
Somewhat cooler and drier westerly flow will develop on
Thursday.. with scattered showers are possible along the CanAm
border Thursday afternoon... mainly in backwash instability.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

The period will begin quiet as surface low pressure moves away from
the area and towards Hudson Bay. Upper ridging will build into the
Plains states as slightly cooler and drier Canadian air works its way
southward. Temperatures to end the work week and start the weekend
look to top out slightly below normal with values mainly in the mid
to upper 70s and gradually into the lower 80s.

The upper ridge begins breaking down late Sunday as an upper low
strengthens across the Pacific northwest. Models disagree a bit on
the timing and strength of this feature with the GFS much stronger
and more pronounced than the ECMWF. Regardless, several waves are
progged to move through the southwest flow ahead of this system
allowing precipitation chances to return by late Sunday/early
Monday. At this time, not able to confidently pick out the timing of
the strongest waves so generally went with slight chance/chance PoPs
through Wednesday.

Temperatures for the second half of the period will be just a tad
warmer with highs in the upper 70s across the north and low to mid
80s in the south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

Tried to indicate the best time frame for tstms at each of the TAF
sites. These should clear KDVL first, but may take well into the
evening to clear the other sites. There has not been much for tstm
activity yet, but models are indicating more coverage through the
evening. West winds look quite gusty on Thursday.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Godon

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
857 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-041400-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
857 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN EASTERN ND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIGNIFICANT HAIL...GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE...AND SOME TORNADIC ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND. STORMS WILL PRESENT MORE
OF A WIND THREAT AS THE ACTIVITY MERGES INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND
MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NW MN THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...THIS AREA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MAINLY STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

JK/LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
857 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 SSE SHEYENNE          47.80N 99.10W
08/03/2016                   EDDY               ND   STORM CHASER

            PERSISTENT WALL CLOUD WITH FUNNEL CLOUD VIEWED AND
            PHOTOGRAPHED. REPORT AND PHOTO POSTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
923 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 PM     TORNADO          10 WSW HAMAR            47.79N 98.77W
08/03/2016                   EDDY               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO TRACKING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST EDDY TOWNSHIP...
            ABOUT 6 SSW OF WARWICK.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
928 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 WNW FOREST RIVER      48.26N 97.61W
08/03/2016  M57.00 MPH       WALSH              ND   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT THE NDAWN STATION.

&&

GGUST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
932 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

MNZ001-007-008-013-NDZ016-027-040330-
WEST POLK MN-WEST MARSHALL MN-EAST MARSHALL MN-PENNINGTON MN-
EASTERN WALSH COUNTY ND-GRAND FORKS ND-
932 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN POLK...WESTERN
MARSHALL...NORTHWESTERN PENNINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN WALSH AND
NORTHEASTERN GRAND FORKS COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 932 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR RADIUM TO NEAR MEKINOCK. MOVEMENT WAS
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RADIUM AND OLD MILL STATE PARK AROUND 935 PM CDT.
  VIKING AROUND 955 PM CDT.
  GRAND FORKS AND CARPENTERS CORNER AROUND 1000 PM CDT.
  EAST GRAND FORKS AND MERRIFIELD AROUND 1005 PM CDT.
  ROSEWOOD AROUND 1010 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN GRAND FORKS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA...AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4812 9617 4783 9717 4814 9757 4853 9664
TIME...MOT...LOC 0232Z 307DEG 20KT 4828 9661 4798 9731

KNUTSVIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
937 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E LANGDON             48.76N 98.35W
08/03/2016  M58 MPH          CAVALIER           ND   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT A PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

&&

GGUST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1022 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

MNZ001-007>009-013>016-NDZ027-040415-
WEST POLK MN-EAST POLK MN-NORTH CLEARWATER MN-WEST MARSHALL MN-
NORTH BELTRAMI MN-EAST MARSHALL MN-PENNINGTON MN-RED LAKE MN-
GRAND FORKS ND-
1022 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RED LAKE...POLK...WEST CENTRAL
BELTRAMI...NORTHWESTERN CLEARWATER...SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL...
PENNINGTON AND CENTRAL GRAND FORKS COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1022 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM THIEF RIVER FALLS TO THOMPSON. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  THIEF RIVER FALLS...ST. HILAIRE AND DAKOTA JUNCTION AROUND 1025 PM
  CDT.
  HAZEL AROUND 1030 PM CDT.
  MAVIE AROUND 1040 PM CDT.
  FISHER...GOODRIDGE AND ELDRED AROUND 1045 PM CDT.
  HIGH LANDING AROUND 1050 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN GRAND FORKS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA...AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4750 9630 4750 9638 4800 9786 4831 9655
      4812 9511
TIME...MOT...LOC 0322Z 287DEG 35KT 4812 9619 4779 9712

KNUTSVIG