Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1115 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

The severe thunderstorm watch has expired now, with the strongest
cell east of Aberdeen, SD. There are now more small showers and
tstms forming in the northern Red River Valley up toward the Lake
of the Woods. There is even a small shower in northern Cass
County, ND. So there will likely be hit and miss showers and tstms
around along and east of the valley through the rest of the
overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

Main impacts will be severe potential late afternoon and tonight.
Boundary currently oriented from the ne tip of ND southwestward to
south of BIS. NSSL WRF/HRRRX fairly close with convective
initiation around 21-22z then propagate line of convection
eastward through the evening. Primary severe threat looks to be
Hail/wind and psbl heavy rain. Made best attempt to time storm
passage with highest pops. by 06z convection should be confined to
areas east of the valley exiting the fa in the am.

In the wake of the boundary passage dewpoints drop off nicely. So
while column does not cool off all that much it will not be near
as humid tomorrow with temperatures in the low to mid 80s with no
pcpn expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

The extended period starts off with weak high pressure over the area
on Tuesday...as an interlude before the next system crosses the
Dakotas on Wednesday. Return flow ahead of the the system on
Wednesday will pump up the moisture again...along with 850mb
dewpoints in the 12C to 14C range on the nose of a 35 to 45 knot low
level jet. In association with a vigorous wave aloft and increased
instability...expect the ingredients to come together for another
severe weather threat on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

For Thursday through Sunday...a bit cooler temperatures and drier
air will push south across the area...and the upper ridge will
slowly build again by the end of the period allowing temperatures to
rebound. A few upper level impulses can be expected to propagate
through the flow during this time...bringing a slight chance for
some showers to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

Some of the TAF sites will be dealing with VCTS or on station
tstms through the overnight hours. After the storms move off to
the east, VFR conditions return.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Godon

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1140 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-030445-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
1140 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BEEN A WIND EVENT WITH POSSIBLY SOME LARGE
HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
840 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NDZ052-020230-
SARGENT ND-
840 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SARGENT COUNTY UNTIL 930 PM
CDT...

AT 839 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
COGSWELL...OR 23 MILES NORTH OF BRITTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FORMAN AROUND 855 PM CDT.
  RUTLAND AROUND 905 PM CDT.
  CAYUGA AROUND 910 PM CDT.
  GENESEO AROUND 915 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN GRAND FORKS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4595 9800 4626 9800 4618 9728 4594 9726
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 283DEG 39KT 4613 9785

VOELKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1051 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

MNZ006-009-020445-
LAKE OF THE WOODS MN-NORTH BELTRAMI MN-
1051 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE OF THE WOODS
AND NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1050 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER JELLE...OR 36 MILES EAST OF THIEF RIVER FALLS...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MALCOLM AROUND 1055 PM CDT.
  FOURTOWN AROUND 1100 PM CDT.
  THORHULT AROUND 1105 PM CDT.
  NORTHERN UPPER RED LAKE AROUND 1130 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN GRAND FORKS.

&&

LAT...LON 4815 9552 4833 9551 4857 9481 4819 9450
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 271DEG 24KT 4825 9541

SPEICHER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

MNZ009-020545-
NORTH BELTRAMI MN-
1143 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTY UNTIL
1245 AM CDT...

AT 1142 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF UPPER RED LAKE TO 9
MILES EAST OF THORHULT. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  UPPER RED LAKE AROUND 1150 PM CDT.
  WASKISH...OTTO AND SHOTLEY AROUND 1245 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN GRAND FORKS.

PERSONS IN CAMPGROUNDS SHOULD CONSIDER SEEKING STURDY SHELTER UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 4816 9534 4837 9479 4831 9442 4798 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0442Z 275DEG 17KT 4824 9467 4819 9505

SPEICHER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1252 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

MNZ008-009-013>017-020645-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-NORTH BELTRAMI-EAST MARSHALL-SOUTH
BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
1252 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT RED LAKE...EAST CENTRAL
POLK...CENTRAL BELTRAMI...NORTHERN CLEARWATER...SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL
AND EASTERN PENNINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 1251 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR MAVIE TO LOWER RED LAKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LOWER RED LAKE AROUND 1255 AM CDT.
  LITTLE ROCK AROUND 105 AM CDT.
  RED LAKE AND ROLAND AROUND 110 AM CDT.
  ISLAND LAKE IN BELTRAMI COUNTY AROUND 115 AM CDT.
  REDBY AROUND 120 AM CDT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR RED LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...
YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER
NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4771 9472 4782 9635 4836 9579 4826 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0551Z 283DEG 31KT 4809 9599 4794 9526

JK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
146 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

MNZ009-015>017-020745-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-NORTH BELTRAMI-SOUTH BELTRAMI-
146 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL POLK...
CENTRAL BELTRAMI AND NORTHERN CLEARWATER COUNTIES...

AT 145 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF THORHULT TO LOWER RED LAKE TO TRAIL...
AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RED LAKE AND UPPER RED LAKE AROUND 150 AM CDT.
  REDBY AROUND 155 AM CDT.
  NEBISH AROUND 200 AM CDT.
  GONVICK...BERNER AND SAUM AROUND 210 AM CDT.
  CLEARBROOK AROUND 215 AM CDT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR RED LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...
YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER
NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4769 9590 4805 9544 4835 9502 4833 9442
      4762 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0645Z 276DEG 24KT 4825 9504 4789 9495 4780 9573

JK