Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
627 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

Severe weather is the main challenge. At the moment there are no
active warnings. However there is one cell at KJMS that is still
moving to the east. This cell will bear watching. Otherwise just
not seeing much happening. Latest high resolution guidance shows
tstms continuing to move east across the FA through the mid to
late evening, before exiting the FA late. Will continue to
monitor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

Main impacts will be severe potential late afternoon and tonight.
Boundary currently oriented from the ne tip of ND southwestward to
south of BIS. NSSL WRF/HRRRX fairly close with convective
initiation around 21-22z then propagate line of convection
eastward through the evening. Primary severe threat looks to be
Hail/wind and psbl heavy rain. Made best attempt to time storm
passage with highest pops. by 06z convection should be confined to
areas east of the valley exiting the fa in the am.

In the wake of the boundary passage dewpoints drop off nicely. So
while column does not cool off all that much it will not be near
as humid tomorrow with temperatures in the low to mid 80s with no
pcpn expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

The extended period starts off with weak high pressure over the area
on Tuesday...as an interlude before the next system crosses the
Dakotas on Wednesday. Return flow ahead of the the system on
Wednesday will pump up the moisture again...along with 850mb
dewpoints in the 12C to 14C range on the nose of a 35 to 45 knot low
level jet. In association with a vigorous wave aloft and increased
instability...expect the ingredients to come together for another
severe weather threat on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

For Thursday through Sunday...a bit cooler temperatures and drier
air will push south across the area...and the upper ridge will
slowly build again by the end of the period allowing temperatures to
rebound. A few upper level impulses can be expected to propagate
through the flow during this time...bringing a slight chance for
some showers to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

Tried to narrow down the tstm window at each of the TAF sites.
Looks like it will be a fairly narrow window. After the storms
move through winds should remain light with only some departing
mid and high level clouds. By mid to late Tuesday morning winds
should turn to the NW.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Godon

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
719 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-021230-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
719 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STORMS WILL BE LIKLEY TODAY WITH A COUPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER. THE FIRST THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND NORTHERN RRV.
SECONDLY REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL ND TO MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SEND AND INTO WCNTRL MN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
PRIMARY THREAT ARE GOING TO BE DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND
HEAVY RAINFALL...POTENTIALLY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BEEN A WIND EVENT WITH POSSIBLY SOME LARGE
HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
525 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     HAIL             6 N SOUTHAM             48.25N 98.55W
08/01/2016  E1.00 INCH       RAMSEY             ND   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

GGUST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
730 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NDZ038-039-049-052-020130-
BARNES ND-RANSOM ND-CASS ND-SARGENT ND-
730 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RANSOM...SOUTHEASTERN BARNES...
NORTHERN SARGENT AND SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 729 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER LITTLE YELLOWSTONE...OR 21 MILES SOUTH OF VALLEY CITY...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ENDERLIN AND LISBON AROUND 750 PM CDT.
  SHELDON AND ANSELM AROUND 800 PM CDT.
  VENLO AROUND 805 PM CDT.
  MCLEOD AROUND 815 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN GRAND FORKS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4620 9800 4680 9806 4666 9729 4606 9727
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 289DEG 36KT 4661 9792

HOPKINS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
840 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

NDZ052-020230-
SARGENT ND-
840 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SARGENT COUNTY UNTIL 930 PM
CDT...

AT 839 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
COGSWELL...OR 23 MILES NORTH OF BRITTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FORMAN AROUND 855 PM CDT.
  RUTLAND AROUND 905 PM CDT.
  CAYUGA AROUND 910 PM CDT.
  GENESEO AROUND 915 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN GRAND FORKS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4595 9800 4626 9800 4618 9728 4594 9726
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 283DEG 39KT 4613 9785

VOELKER