Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Grand Forks, ND

082 
WWUS53 KFGF 032357
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

NDC005-019-071-095-040030-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-160804T0030Z/
RAMSEY ND-BENSON ND-TOWNER ND-CAVALIER ND-
657 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN RAMSEY...NORTHWESTERN BENSON...SOUTHERN TOWNER AND
SOUTHWESTERN CAVALIER COUNTIES...

AT 656 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ARNDT TO NEAR YORK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ARNDT AND CONSIDINE AROUND 700 PM CDT. 
  EGELAND AROUND 715 PM CDT. 
  CALIO...CHURCHS FERRY AND MAZA AROUND 730 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4837 9967 4837 9949 4869 9949 4879 9893
      4821 9882 4826 9971
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 279DEG 20KT 4863 9926 4834 9953 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JAM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
636 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

Only show in town right now is a large tstm cell up over Towner
County in ND. Storm chasers have been watching it for quite some
time now. This cell has been very slowly drifting east. Main
question is if and when additional storms fire along the line.
High resolution models still show additional development expanding
southward through the evening, due to the low level jet. So will
continue to monitor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

A low pressure system currently digging into northwest ND will
slide eastward along the CanAm border through the late
afternoon and evening hours. Deep layer moisture advection and
surface heating ahead of this system has /by 3pm/ developed a
broad area of quite unstable air with surface and mixed layer
CAPE exceeding 4000 j/kg and minimal CIN across central eastern
ND. RUC13 and HRRR versions are all indicating high degree of low
level /0-2 km VGP/ spin potential and instability which would
support rapid sub-cloud ascent and increased tornadic potential.
Shear profiles shud support strong overall updraft and the ability
of supercell development and maintenance.

Storms should clear from eastern ND by midnight and decrease in
intensity over northwest MN during the late overnight hours.
Somewhat cooler and drier westerly flow will develop on
Thursday.. with scattered showers are possible along the CanAm
border Thursday afternoon... mainly in backwash instability.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

The period will begin quiet as surface low pressure moves away from
the area and towards Hudson Bay. Upper ridging will build into the
Plains states as slightly cooler and drier Canadian air works its way
southward. Temperatures to end the work week and start the weekend
look to top out slightly below normal with values mainly in the mid
to upper 70s and gradually into the lower 80s.

The upper ridge begins breaking down late Sunday as an upper low
strengthens across the Pacific northwest. Models disagree a bit on
the timing and strength of this feature with the GFS much stronger
and more pronounced than the ECMWF. Regardless, several waves are
progged to move through the southwest flow ahead of this system
allowing precipitation chances to return by late Sunday/early
Monday. At this time, not able to confidently pick out the timing of
the strongest waves so generally went with slight chance/chance PoPs
through Wednesday.

Temperatures for the second half of the period will be just a tad
warmer with highs in the upper 70s across the north and low to mid
80s in the south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

Tried to indicate the best time frame for tstms at each of the TAF
sites. These should clear KDVL first, but may take well into the
evening to clear the other sites. There has not been much for tstm
activity yet, but models are indicating more coverage through the
evening. West winds look quite gusty on Thursday.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Godon

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
857 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-041400-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
857 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN EASTERN ND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIGNIFICANT HAIL...GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE...AND SOME TORNADIC ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND. STORMS WILL PRESENT MORE
OF A WIND THREAT AS THE ACTIVITY MERGES INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND
MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NW MN THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...THIS AREA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MAINLY STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

JK/LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
550 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TORNADO          6 S PERTH               48.63N 99.46W
08/03/2016                   TOWNER             ND   STORM CHASER

            WIDE TORNADO OBSERVED TRACKING ACROSS THE ROLETTE-TOWNER
            COUNTY LINE NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF AGATE. TIME AND
            LOCATION BASED ON STREAMING VIDEO AND SOCIAL MEDIA
            REPORT.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
602 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     TORNADO          1 N BISBEE              48.64N 99.38W
08/03/2016                   TOWNER             ND   STORM CHASER

            INTERMITTENT TOUCHDOWNS REPORTED AND FILMED ACROSS
            SOUTHERN GRAINFIELD TOWNSHIP.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
626 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 ENE BISBEE            48.66N 99.26W
08/03/2016                   TOWNER             ND   STORM CHASER

            POWER LINES DOWN AND LOWER POLE SNAPPED ALONG HWY 281...
            1 TO 2 MILES NORTH OF INTERSECTION WITH HWY 66. VIDEO AND
            REPORTS POSTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GGUST