Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Grand Forks, ND

698 
WWUS53 KFGF 032154
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
454 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

NDC005-095-032230-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-160803T2230Z/
BENSON ND-TOWNER ND-
454 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BENSON AND SOUTHWESTERN TOWNER COUNTIES...

AT 453 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WOLFORD...OR
41 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOTTINEAU...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHWESTERN BENSON AND SOUTHWESTERN TOWNER COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4837 9985 4837 9949 4860 9950 4863 9940
      4820 9928 4822 9972 4824 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 243DEG 35KT 4851 9968 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JAM

371 
WWUS53 KFGF 032221
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
521 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

NDC005-032230-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-160803T2230Z/
BENSON ND-
521 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BENSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4860 9950 4863 9940 4837 9933 4837 9949
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 240DEG 11KT 4856 9955 

$$

NDC095-032230-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-160803T2230Z/
TOWNER ND-
521 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TOWNER COUNTY...

AT 520 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR AGATE...OR 43
MILES NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN TOWNER COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4860 9950 4863 9940 4837 9933 4837 9949
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 240DEG 11KT 4856 9955 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JAM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
340 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

A low pressure system currently digging into northwest ND will
slide eastward along the CanAm border through the late
afternoon and evening hours. Deep layer moisture advection and
surface heating ahead of this system has /by 3pm/ developed a
broad area of quite unstable air with surface and mixed layer
CAPE exceeding 4000 j/kg and minimal CIN across central eastern
ND. RUC13 and HRRR versions are all indicating high degree of low
level /0-2 km VGP/ spin potential and instability which would
support rapid sub-cloud ascent and increased tornadic potential.
Shear profiles shud support strong overall updraft and the ability
of supercell development and maintenance.

Storms should clear from eastern ND by midnight and decrease in
intensity over northwest MN during the late overnight hours.
Somewhat cooler and drier westerly flow will develop on
Thursday.. with scattered showers are possible along the CanAm
border Thursday afternoon... mainly in backwash instability.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

The period will begin quiet as surface low pressure moves away from
the area and towards Hudson Bay. Upper ridging will build into the
Plains states as slightly cooler and drier Canadian air works its way
southward. Temperatures to end the work week and start the weekend
look to top out slightly below normal with values mainly in the mid
to upper 70s and gradually into the lower 80s.

The upper ridge begins breaking down late Sunday as an upper low
strengthens across the Pacific northwest. Models disagree a bit on
the timing and strength of this feature with the GFS much stronger
and more pronounced than the ECMWF. Regardless, several waves are
progged to move through the southwest flow ahead of this system
allowing precipitation chances to return by late Sunday/early
Monday. At this time, not able to confidently pick out the timing of
the strongest waves so generally went with slight chance/chance PoPs
through Wednesday.

Temperatures for the second half of the period will be just a tad
warmer with highs in the upper 70s across the north and low to mid
80s in the south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 2016

Expect areas MVFR cigs and vsbys in strong to severe tstms to
develop across the FA from after 22z into central and eastern
ND...after 02z into the Red River Valley...and after 04z across
northwest and west central Minnesota. Conditions becoming VFR
across eastern ND after 06z...and across northwest MN after 10z.
Thursday morning...fair skies and light south to southwest flow.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...Tornado Watch 430 until 11pm cdt.
MN...Tornado Watch 430 until 11pm cdt.

SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Gust

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
857 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-041400-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
857 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN EASTERN ND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIGNIFICANT HAIL...GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE...AND SOME TORNADIC ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND. STORMS WILL PRESENT MORE
OF A WIND THREAT AS THE ACTIVITY MERGES INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND
MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NW MN THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...THIS AREA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MAINLY STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

JK/LEE