Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
318 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Latest surface analysis over the eastern half of the United States
shows weak high pressure off the NE coast with even weaker ridging
on the east side of the Appalachians and into NE GA. Along the
southern periphery of this feature is a stalled frontal boundary
that id diffuse enough that it is tough to discern a precise
location. A good estimate though is it is somewhere between the
southern Atlanta metro and the Columbus to Macon corridor.

Main issue today was determining if clouds would clear enough to
realize sufficient low level instability today. It looks as though
this has indeed occurred with the clearing and CAPE values
increasing to 1500 to close to 2000 J/KG for the southern tier.
This along with a continued cold pool aloft with -9C at 500mb
should be more than enough to get some thunderstorm activity going
this afternoon despite the slow initiation start. Given these
parameters and some healthy downdraft CAPE over northern
portions...could see some strong to even isolated severe activity
with the most potent storms.

Low pressure off the Florida coast looks to push NE through
Tuesday but most of the associated shower and storm activity will
remain south of the area. What it will do however...is send
enhanced moisture northward allowing for abundant cloud cover and
limit instability through the day. For this reason...have limited
pops ever so slightly but also delayed the onset of precipitation
given increased cloud cover.

Deese

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Guidance in good consensus for fcst solutions as the CWA fails to shake
the moist and moderately unstable regime through the week. The already
abnormally moist environment should be aided even more by a low
advecting NW off the southeast Atlantic coast by Wednesday...which
could even bring some 2.2 inch PWATS to central GA. We will have to
watch for enhanced flash flooding and wet microburst threats given
any hydrometeor loading to convective downdrafts. Have gone likely pops
in parts of south with chance elsewhere.

The models have backed off a bit on the strength of the sfc high progged
to push into the northeast CONUS Thurs/Fri...and now does not appear to
result in as strong of a hybrid CAD wedge across the area. Should be
little change to the overall environment with chance pops each day and
gradual increase going into the weekend as the upper trough amplifies
to the west and another front approaches the north late Saturday into
Sunday.

Temps should be right around normal or slightly below in the mid to
upper 80s for highs and upper 60s to low 70s for lows at most
locations due to expected cloud coverage and daily precip chances.

Baker/16

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
Activity already initiating across the area with vicinity TSRA at
AHN. Expect this trend to increase in coverage throughout the
afternoon requiring inclusion of a TEMPO group at all sites. Still
anticipate an influx of moisture tonight from the east and south
allowing for MVFR conditions at MCN and MVFR elsewhere although
confidence is lower in this scenario. Another round of SHRA and
possible TSRA in store for Tue and have included Prob30 for ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
Medium on MVFR potential tonight.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  87  69  87 /  40  40  30  40
Atlanta         71  87  71  87 /  40  40  30  30
Blairsville     64  83  63  84 /  30  30  20  40
Cartersville    70  88  69  88 /  30  30  20  30
Columbus        73  90  72  88 /  40  40  30  50
Gainesville     69  86  68  86 /  30  30  30  40
Macon           71  88  71  87 /  40  40  40  60
Rome            68  89  69  89 /  30  20  20  30
Peachtree City  70  88  69  87 /  40  40  30  40
Vidalia         73  87  72  84 /  40  60  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....Baker/16
AVIATION...Deese

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
457 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-130900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
457 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG.

.WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WEDNESDAY MAY LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT AND AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
FLOODING OR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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