Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
708 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

.UPDATE...
Cold front has dropped south to near a Athens to LaGrange line.
Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to work off the evening
instability, but should continue to diminish. However, with the
front becoming nearly stationary, will keep in an isolated chance
of showers in across the southern third of the CWFA overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 331 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Models continue in good agreement through the short term. Cold front
currently just south of ATL-AHN and will continue to drift south
through the CWA. Moisture associated with the front will also sink
south this afternoon and evening bringing dry conditions to north
Georgia with isolated showers continuing across central Georgia in
the vicinity of the front. Moisture will begin moving north late
tonight and Monday bringing increasing chances of showers and
tstorms...mainly to central Georgia...and mainly during the
afternoon.

17

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Extended forecast looks to be on track with only slight
adjustments for Tuesday and Day 7. The lowered temps for the wedge
development still look appropriate, and neighbors seem to be in
better agreement with our thinking. Approaching passage continues
to keep pops high Saturday and Sunday. At this time, previous
forecast discussion still applies and is included below.

31

/Issued 433 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016/

Models with pretty good agreement on main influencing mid-upper level
synoptic features for fcst period and a bit closer with late period
sfc features. Still looking like overall decent chance pops for
majority of CWA for Tuesday as broad moisture field over southeast
CONUS gets aided squeeze play from a weak low approaching from
southeast Atlantic coast. Guidance continues to have some upper
ridging amplify eastward by midweek...with a translated sfc high
advecting into New England by late Thurs/Fri. This in turn would
result in a hybrid CAD regime for the area. There are signs of
fairly good low-mid level moisture overrunning so we could be in
for a cooler cloudy end of week into weekend. Increasing chance
for showers as well given this setup and will need to watch for
convective triggering along or near where wedge front shapes up and
any elevated instability for storm potential. Also higher chance pops
trending from NW by late Sat/Sun with approach of possible
shortwave/elongated front.

For temps...blend looks reasonable with values near climo norms
through midweek...though have gone a bit cooler for end of week
given aforementioned likely wedge influence and any in-situ
reinforcement /could be 3-5 deg below norm/.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Front has moved south of ATL this evening, along with showers and
thunderstorms. Even though winds will be very light overnight,
they should switch over to the east side behind the frontal
boundary. Winds will remain on the east side through the remainder
of the TAF period. SCT convection expected to pop up once again
along the front tomorrow afternoon during peak heating.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  85  70  85 /  20  50  30  30
Atlanta         70  87  71  86 /  20  40  30  30
Blairsville     61  82  65  83 /  10  30  30  30
Cartersville    66  88  70  87 /  10  30  30  30
Columbus        72  92  72  89 /  40  50  30  30
Gainesville     70  83  69  83 /  10  40  30  30
Macon           70  90  71  87 /  40  50  30  40
Rome            64  89  70  88 /  10  20  20  30
Peachtree City  69  87  70  86 /  20  40  30  30
Vidalia         73  90  72  87 /  30  40  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
449 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-120900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
449 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXCEPT
THE FAR NORTHWEST.

.WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS... HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
803 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

GAZ083-095-096-105-107-120045-
TWIGGS GA-BLECKLEY GA-HOUSTON GA-DOOLY GA-PULASKI GA-
803 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TWIGGS...WESTERN
BLECKLEY...HOUSTON...NORTHEASTERN DOOLY AND NORTHWESTERN PULASKI
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

AT 803 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR TARVERSVILLE TO UNADILLA...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY
           RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING
           IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
PERRY...HAWKINSVILLE...UNADILLA...PAULK...MAGNOLIA...BONAIRE...GROVAN
IA... OCMULGEE PUBLIC FISHING
AREA...ROYAL...TARVERSVILLE...HAYNEVILLE... HOUSTON
LAKE...HENDERSON...BROWNDALE...GROVE PARK...MOCK SPRINGS...
CLINCHFIELD...KATHLEEN...MOSS OAK AND MEADOWDALE.

LAT...LON 3239 8384 3243 8384 3259 8353 3248 8329
      3212 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 322DEG 13KT 3251 8351 3227 8376

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
806 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

GAZ086-120030-
EMANUEL GA-
806 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN EMANUEL COUNTY UNTIL 830
PM EDT...

AT 805 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER GEORGE L SMITH STATE
PARK...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF METTER...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY
           RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING
           IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL
EMANUEL COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3254 8203 3256 8208 3254 8211 3254 8212
      3261 8212 3264 8204 3261 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 269DEG 10KT 3257 8208

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
845 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

GAZ104-120115-
SUMTER GA-
845 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUMTER COUNTY UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 843 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AROUND HUNTINGTON...OR NEAR
AMERICUS...AND WERE DRIFTING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY
           RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING
           IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
AMERICUS...LESLIE...DE SOTO...DESOTO...COBB...SUMTER...LAMAR...NEW
ERA... METHVINS...MADDOX AND HUNTINGTON.

LAT...LON 3192 8430 3212 8430 3215 8403 3213 8401
      3212 8401 3211 8400 3210 8400 3209 8398
      3207 8399 3206 8398 3205 8398 3205 8397
      3202 8395 3191 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 269DEG 49KT 3203 8414