Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
315 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Regional set-up across the area at AFD time features subtropical
ridging aloft over the southeastern states...with a string of mid-
level vort maxes/enhanced westerly flow extending from Texas NNE
into the TN Valley/western Carolinas. An impressive plume of
moisture evident on IR satellite/WV imagery compliments this area
well. That in mind, moisture will be enhanced across our northern
tier of counties this afternoon/evening. This moisture combined with
weak DCVA from aforementioned vort maxes should allow for decent
coverage of convection thru the rest of today...though any stolen
energy from morning TN MCS may make it a touch harder for the
atmosphere to get going. Will monitor trends.

In addition, a weak trough axis extends SSW from a weak/remnant sfc
low off Jersey coastline. This boundary becomes more diffuse from S
Carolina into Ga but likely exists somewhere along a Columbus to
Macon line. Recent satellite loop suggests TN MCS outflow may be
merging with the trough axis amidst diurnal heating to enhance lift.
This is responsible for the convection across central Ga.
Elsewhere...mainly looking at a diurnal trend in coverage...with the
exception of any lingering mesoscale boundaries. Weak shear with
moderate instability (MLCAPE 2000-3000J/KG)will yield single-cell
"pulse" convection and perhaps a few mergers with the potential for
a few strong storms to produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Corfidi
vectors (from 12z sounding) yielding values less than 10kts raises
concern for slow moving storms and potential localized flash flood
threat. Expect a slow wane to the activity overnight.

For Friday, subtropical ridging scoots a little south and
west...exposing north Ga to the elongated moisture plume discussed
previously along with more enhanced westerly flow. This will allow
highest coverage of storms across this area...especially in the
afternoon. With mid level flow between 20-25kt would not be
surprised to see a few storm clusters...with scattered single cell
convection elsewhere. High temps will range from upper 80s/low 90s
north and mid 90s south.

Kovacik

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

A trough approaching the Great Lakes will continue to dig eastward
through the weekend; meanwhile the Bermuda High [which was
dominating our sensible weather the past week or so] will retreat to
the east. A cold front associated with this trough will be drapedacross
the central CONUS and slowly edging closer toward the area.

Saturday through Sunday: Ahead of this front, expect increased
mid/upper level moisture to move south through the area as stacked
SW flow increases. This will give way to better chances of
precipitation across the area, especially across north GA. While
the front is still hanging back to the west, the flow will still
be fairly weak yielding a bit slower storm motion, that is until
Sunday night when more organized (and albeit faster moving) storms
may develop as the front nears. So feel in addition to storms,
there will be the flood potential given PWAT values will be above
normal. Any storms that do develop will struggle to become severe
given marginal instability. Hot and humid conditions continue.
Hold on though! An airmass change expected through the beginning
of the work week.

Sunday night through Tuesday: The models continue to trend the FROPA
faster, with the front now approaching our northern counties by
Sunday night. The front will act as a catalysis for
thunderstorm/precipitation through the late evening hours,
diminishing by sunrise. The front will push through Monday with
the front becoming stalled just south of the CWA by Monday night.
High pressure behind the front, along with sufficient subsident
flow will help keep conditions dry for much of the area. Although,
if the front stalls a bit further north, there could be some
showers/thunderstorms across the southern tier. High temperatures
will not be as warm, with values in the upper 80s to low 90s. With
lower dewpoints/drier air, it will feel "cooler" as compared to
the last week or so. But the most drastic change will be our low
temperatures...mid/upper 60s across northern GA, around 70 across
the central/southern tier. A subtle but appreciated period of
relief.

Wednesday through Thursday: The sfc high across the Ohio River
Valley will move off the New England coast. This will usher in
southerly flow with some mid level vort maxs eroding the mid level
ridging by the latter half of the work week. Given this, feel the
chance of precipitation will increase, but not expecting
widespread coverage. Temperatures/dewpoints will slowly rebound.

26

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Storms have begun to pop up across the state. Expect coverage to
increase thru mid afternoon and all TAF sites include a TEMPO thru
~22/23z to reflect this. Coverage should wane after midnight where
possible SCT-BKN mid level deck may prevail thru sunrise. By 15z
or so Friday will see diurnal cu field begin to develop (albeit
bases a little lower than today). Possible AHN may briefly go MVFR
before sunrise. Humid airmass will likely trigger convection by
17 or 18z again Friday...especially over northern TAF sites. Winds
remain on the west side generally light between 5-10kt...minus any
convective activity. No restrictions to VSBYs expected.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high on all elements.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  91  73  90 /  30  50  40  40
Atlanta         74  90  73  89 /  30  50  30  50
Blairsville     67  84  67  82 /  30  60  40  60
Cartersville    72  89  71  88 /  30  50  40  50
Columbus        75  93  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
Gainesville     72  88  72  87 /  30  50  40  50
Macon           73  93  74  92 /  40  50  30  30
Rome            72  88  71  88 /  30  60  40  50
Peachtree City  72  90  72  89 /  30  50  30  40
Vidalia         75  94  75  95 /  30  50  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kovacik
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...Kovacik

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
337 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-191945-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
337 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS STAYS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE STATE. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. VERY HEAVY
RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THAT MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
644 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

GAZ033-045-182345-
DEKALB GA-NORTH FULTON GA-
644 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DEKALB AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 640 PM EDT...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A PREVIOUS CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED FLOODING
IN AN AREA NEARLY 7 MILES NORTH OF DECATUR. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS UP TO
A QUICK 2 INCHES FELL BETWEEN BROOKHAVEN AND CHAMBLEE.

  HAZARD...HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY
           RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING
           IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
ATLANTA...SANDY SPRINGS...DUNWOODY...CHAMBLEE...DORAVILLE...NORTH ATLANTA...
NORTH DRUID HILLS AND BROOKHAVEN.

LAT...LON 3391 8438 3395 8432 3393 8427 3392 8426
      3391 8424 3390 8424 3382 8430 3384 8439
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 203DEG 1KT 3388 8432

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