Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
147 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Radar lighting up across the CWA. Highest coverage across central
Ga where subtle trough axis coexists with 2000-4000J/KG SBCAPE
per SPC mesoanalysis. Expect coverage to continue to increase
through the afternoon throughout the CWA given high theta-e
airmass and then begin to wane a few hours after sunset. Given
thermodynamic and shear profiles...expect single cell
convection...with slow storm movement and moist atmospheric column
suggesting the threat for flash flooding and gusty winds to be the
main threats. Rest of forecast on track. Will have update dpackage
out here shortly.

Kovacik

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 447 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
The southeast remains under the influence of ridging aloft and at
the surface.  Isolated thunderstorm moving little over the Taylor,
Upson and Talbot counties area this morning with rainfall amounts
near one and a half inches over the past 3 hours.  Expect morning
convection to diminish early this morning with a break in convection
through mid-morning.   Short term models are in good agreement as
the upper ridging flattens out through the short term period,
allowing increased moisture into west and north GA this afternoon.
PWATs increase to over 2 inches by tonight. Instability increases
this afternoon as well, and with a weak boundary noted in the
surface high pressure noted over portions of east and central GA,
which will aid in convective development this afternoon, once again
expect slow moving storms with locally heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning. Temperatures will remain at or above normal and have not
strayed from guidance which is in good agreement.

Atwell

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
The extended forecast continues on track with not many changes
from the current thinking. The Deep moisture is beginning to move
in across the area with the main axis expected to push into N GA
Sat morning. This will bring increased rain chances through the
weekend and into early next week. The main Bermuda ridge which
has controlled the weather pattern for the past week has finally
weakened and will continue moving south into Central FL through
Sunday. This ridge moving south is what allows the deep moisture
to move in across our area. Instabilities are not that
significant through early next week so not expecting much in the
way of severe weather. PWs do increase significantly so any storm
that develop Fri through Mon will have the potential to produce
periods of heavy rain. Will need to watch out for the potential
for flooding as we go through the weekend. This moisture axis
finally moves south of the area as another frontal system pushes
south out of the northern plains Sunday...and into N GA Monday.
This front will push things south of our CWA by Tues afternoon.

Temps will remain a bit warm through the middle of the week then
subside a bit by the end of the work week and into the weekend as
rain chances increase.

01

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Storms have begun to pop up across the state. Expect coverage to
increase thru mid afternoon and all TAF sites include a TEMPO thru
~22/23z to reflect this. Coverage should wane after midnight where
possible SCT-BKN mid level deck may prevail thru sunrise. By 15z
or so Friday will see diurnal cu field begin to develop (albeit
bases a little lower than today). Possible AHN may briefly go MVFR
before sunrise. Humid airmass will likely trigger convection by
17 or 18z again Friday...especially over northern TAF sites. Winds
remain on the west side generally light between 5-10kt...minus any
convective activity. No restrictions to VSBYs expected.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high on all elements.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          94  73  93  73 /  40  40  40  30
Atlanta         92  74  90  74 /  40  40  40  30
Blairsville     85  67  84  66 /  50  30  50  30
Cartersville    92  71  89  71 /  50  30  50  30
Columbus        93  74  92  74 /  40  30  40  20
Gainesville     90  72  88  72 /  40  30  50  30
Macon           94  74  93  74 /  40  30  40  20
Rome            92  72  89  71 /  40  30  50  30
Peachtree City  92  72  90  72 /  40  40  40  20
Vidalia         96  74  94  75 /  40  30  50  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kovacik
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...Kovacik

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
548 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-191000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
548 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS STAYS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE
STATE THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1217 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEXINGTON               33.87N  83.11W
08/17/2016                   OGLETHORPE         GA   911 CALL CENTER

            THE 911 CENTER RECEIVED MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES DOWN
            THROUGHOUT LEXINGTON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600592

GEO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
101 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

GAZ069-079-080-181730-
TALBOT GA-UPSON GA-TAYLOR GA-
101 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TALBOT...
SOUTHEASTERN UPSON AND NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

AT 101 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR LINCOLN PARK...OR NEAR
THOMASTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY
           RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING
           IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE THOMASTON...LINCOLN
PARK...CARSONVILLE...BIG LAZER CREEK WMA...REDBONE
CROSSROADS...SALEM AND LOGTOWN.

LAT...LON 3277 8444 3292 8433 3285 8412 3280 8412
      3280 8415 3270 8420 3265 8426
TIME...MOT...LOC 1701Z 302DEG 8KT 3281 8431

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
104 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

GAZ061-181730-
HANCOCK GA-
104 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HANCOCK COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM
EDT...

AT 104 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER LINTON...OR 8 MILES
SOUTH OF SPARTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
SPARTA...CULVERTON...BEULAH AND LINTON.

LAT...LON 3324 8278 3320 8283 3320 8285 3313 8290
      3311 8295 3311 8297 3308 8301 3308 8304
      3313 8310 3315 8309 3316 8311 3338 8296
      3324 8275
TIME...MOT...LOC 1704Z 220DEG 10KT 3316 8299

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
115 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

GAZ015-016-023-181745-
LUMPKIN GA-WHITE GA-HALL GA-
115 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LUMPKIN...
SOUTHWESTERN WHITE AND NORTHERN HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

AT 115 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER GARLAND...OR NEAR
DAHLONEGA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY
           RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING
           IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
DAHLONEGA...CLERMONT AND GARLAND.

LAT...LON 3455 8370 3437 8377 3447 8401 3459 8392
TIME...MOT...LOC 1715Z 282DEG 11KT 3450 8388

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
152 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

GAZ039-181815-
WILKES GA-
152 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILKES COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM EDT...

AT 152 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER AONIA...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WASHINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY
           RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING
           IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
WASHINGTON...ROCKY CREEK FIRE DEPT....HOLLIDAY PARK...METASVILLE...
LUNDBERG AND AONIA.

LAT...LON 3364 8248 3366 8251 3365 8252 3364 8256
      3365 8258 3363 8258 3364 8259 3363 8262
      3362 8263 3361 8265 3360 8266 3360 8269
      3362 8269 3361 8274 3376 8278 3382 8259
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 257DEG 19KT 3368 8263