Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
151 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1030 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016/

UPDATE...

After some morning stratus delayed heating this morning a
bit...now seeing full sun across most all locations. Convective
temp slightly higher this morning but should have no problem
realizing good coverage of storms once again today. Best chances
appear to be along and south of the I85 corridor where best deep
layer moisture resides but certainly cannot rule out for the north
either where still sufficient moisture for low end sct storms.
Warm mid levels will once again inhibit robust convection and
limit strong to severe threat. Exception may be far north where
some slightly cooler mid level air moves in this afternoon.
Current grids have an excellent handle on all of this and no
changes planned.

Deese

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 740 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Still not expecting any major changes to the general pattern we
have seen over the area for the past several days. Weak upper
troughing remains in place through Monday. Models are indicating
that the better moisture...with PWs around 1.75 to 2 inches has
settled south into Central Georgia. Better instability also
expected over the southern half of the forecast area through the
period. Scattered convection expected to develop each day with
slightly better POPs across our Central Georgia zones. As with
the past several days... lack of any strong upper-level support
and moderate instability at best should keep convection below
severe limits. Increased convective cloud cover and precipitation
coverage each afternoon will help to moderate temperatures a
little bit...but we should see highs at or slightly above seasonal
normals each day. Heat Index values are expected to remain below
advisory levels.

20

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
Long-range models continue to show a weak... yet persistent long
wave trough drifting along the Atlantic seaboard by early Tuesday.
Disturbances traversing through this upper trough will deepen a
surface low off the mid-Atlantic coast and help drag a weak
surface front into the state by late Tuesday. At this time... it
appears a developing northwest flow aloft could spread some drier
air into at least parts of north GA and help push the boundary
into mainly central GA by Tuesday afternoon. This suggest a lessor
rain chance across north GA and maybe only a low scattered
coverage across central GA on Tuesday and Wednesday. Weak
disturbances in the west to northwest flow aloft combined with
increasing low level moisture from a developing southerly low
level flow should help increase rain chances across the area by
Thursday and this pattern may continue into the weekend. For
now... will continue to show 30-40 percent pops for the later half
of the work week and into Saturday. The overall pattern shows a
weakly sheared environment with only modest instabilities... all
suggesting any severe threat will be minimal with nothing
widespread or organized severe-wise expected through the long
term at this time. Otherwise... highs in the 90s and lows in the
70s will persist.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

The axis of best moisture and energy for thunderstorm development
continues to be over southern sections from CSG to MCN. Have
initialized with TEMPO groups for these southern TAF sites but not
for the ATL area sites where I delayed activity until 19Z and
based on current trends...this could perhaps have been delayed
even further. Otherwise...a shortwave moves through tonight into
tomorrow morning. Have not played this up all that much in current
TAF set but will need to watched closely as this could cause some
unexpected activity even during the overnight hours. For
now...have limited the Prob30 to 18Z to 22Z for ATL on Mon.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
Medium on TSRA timing.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          94  73  93  73 /  40  40  40  30
Atlanta         90  74  91  74 /  50  50  40  30
Blairsville     87  68  88  67 /  30  30  40  30
Cartersville    91  72  92  71 /  40  40  40  30
Columbus        93  75  93  74 /  50  50  50  40
Gainesville     90  73  90  73 /  30  30  40  30
Macon           94  73  93  73 /  50  50  50  40
Rome            91  71  93  72 /  30  30  40  30
Peachtree City  91  73  92  71 /  50  50  40  30
Vidalia         95  76  94  75 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...Deese

FLUS42 KFFC DDHHMM
HWOFFC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
222 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-011800-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
222 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...
MAINLY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
236 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

GAZ093-104>106-311915-
SUMTER GA-MACON GA-CRISP GA-DOOLY GA-
236 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SUMTER...SOUTHERN
MACON...NORTHWESTERN CRISP AND DOOLY COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 236 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BYROMVILLE...OR 10
MILES SOUTH OF OGLETHORPE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY
           RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING
           IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
CORDELE...VIENNA...UNADILLA...BYROMVILLE...PINEHURST...LESLIE...LILLY
...DE SOTO...DOOLING...DESOTO...COBB...LAMAR...GEORGIA VETERANS
MEMORIAL ST PK... RICHWOOD...DRAYTON...CLEARVIEW...METHVINS...FLINT
RIVER WMA AND PENNINGTON.

LAT...LON 3196 8411 3225 8410 3228 8374 3191 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 274DEG 15KT 3215 8399

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

GAZ067-068-311945-
PIKE GA-MERIWETHER GA-
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PIKE AND MERIWETHER COUNTIES
UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 300 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER WOODBURY...OR 7 MILES
EAST OF GREENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY
           RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING
           IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
ZEBULON...GREENVILLE...WOODBURY...WARM
SPRINGS...MOLENA...WILLIAMSON... MEANSVILLE...GAY...RALEIGH...HARRIS
CITY...LIFSEY SPRINGS...HOLLONVILLE... HILLTOP AND IMLAC.

LAT...LON 3320 8440 3320 8438 3319 8437 3319 8434
      3301 8427 3299 8434 3299 8449 3297 8451
      3297 8453 3295 8452 3293 8452 3288 8470
      3308 8476
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 266DEG 5KT 3302 8458

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
302 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

GAZ079-080-089>091-311945-
MUSCOGEE GA-TALBOT GA-MARION GA-TAYLOR GA-CHATTAHOOCHEE GA-
302 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MUSCOGEE...SOUTHWESTERN
TALBOT...NORTHERN MARION...SOUTHWESTERN TAYLOR AND NORTHEASTERN
CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 301 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GENEVA...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUENA VISTA...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
JUNCTION CITY...GENEVA...UPATOI...NORTH FORT BENNING...BRANTLEY...
EELBECK/WEST FORT BENNING...FLAT ROCK...MARION ESTATES...MAUK...BOX
SPRINGS...JUNIPER...TAZEWELL...OAKLAND...MIDLAND AND HOWARD.

LAT...LON 3239 8489 3258 8487 3258 8470 3259 8469
      3260 8437 3241 8438 3241 8439 3233 8439
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 272DEG 8KT 3248 8462

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

GAZ105>108-312000-
CRISP GA-WILCOX GA-DOOLY GA-PULASKI GA-
319 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CRISP...WESTERN WILCOX...EASTERN
DOOLY AND SOUTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 319 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR PINEHURST TO NEAR ARABI...AND MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. ALSO...THE HEAVY
           RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING OR ROAD PONDING
           IN SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
CORDELE...HAWKINSVILLE...VIENNA...UNADILLA...ROCHELLE...ARABI...PINEV
IEW... PINEHURST...PITTS...TREMONT...DOUBLE RUN...RICHWOOD...POPE
CITY...HATLEY... WALLACE...WENONA...TIPPETTVILLE...PLEASANT
VIEW...SEVILLE AND MOCK SPRINGS.

LAT...LON 3181 8383 3183 8384 3182 8385 3184 8386
      3185 8391 3225 8383 3228 8337 3185 8346
      3185 8361 3180 8361 3180 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 278DEG 10KT 3217 8373 3185 8379