Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
331 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Approaching max diurnal heating...instability and convective temp
during the next hour. Radars show scattered tstms associated with
an upper level disturbance are in AL just west of Franklin and
over Lumpkin moving to the ENE at 15 kts. Hi-res models continue
to indicate best potential for scattered tstms is during the next
few hours over north and central GA. Will maintain 30-40 percent
PoPs. The tstms should dissipate during the evening with partly
cloudy skies.

A bit less moisture on Tue as PW values decrease to around 1.5
inches for all but the extreme northern zones. Although the mid
level remains cool...overall CAPE values will be limited and less
than today with values closer to 1500 J/KG. This level of moisture
and CAPE are still sufficient for storm development but will
contribute to the overall reduced coverage of 20 percent PoPs.

A blend of MOS guidance was used for temps and PoPs. Temps will
be a few degrees above normal.

16

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
No major changes made to the extended forecast. Climo pops
continue through the extended period as a weakness in the mid-
level ridge keeps enhanced moisture over the region. Zonal flow
expected by late week, with convection triggering/focusing along
residual outflows and where weak impulses impact the area. Have
continued with largely good chance pops in the grids through the
weekend, with majority of convection being diurnally driven.
Temperatures will stay hot through the period, with highs in the
mid to upper 90s into the weekend.

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR conditions will prevail over the TAF sites through the
forecast period. Expect scattered thunderstorms to develop during
the max diurnal time period late this afternoon and continue for
a few hours. Generally a light west wind will prevail.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
Medium on TSRA chances.
High on remaining elements.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  94  73  95 /  30  20  10  30
Atlanta         74  92  74  92 /  30  20  10  30
Blairsville     66  86  66  88 /  30  30  20  40
Cartersville    71  90  71  93 /  40  30  20  40
Columbus        74  95  75  95 /  30  20  20  30
Gainesville     72  90  73  92 /  30  20  10  40
Macon           73  96  74  96 /  30  10  10  30
Rome            71  91  71  93 /  30  30  20  40
Peachtree City  71  92  71  93 /  30  20  10  30
Vidalia         75  95  75  96 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
301 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121915-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
301 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LA GRANGE...TO MACON....TO SWAINSBORO. ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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