Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
331 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Approaching max diurnal heating...instability and convective temp
during the next hour. Radars show scattered tstms associated with
an upper level disturbance are in AL just west of Franklin and
over Lumpkin moving to the ENE at 15 kts. Hi-res models continue
to indicate best potential for scattered tstms is during the next
few hours over north and central GA. Will maintain 30-40 percent
PoPs. The tstms should dissipate during the evening with partly
cloudy skies.

A bit less moisture on Tue as PW values decrease to around 1.5
inches for all but the extreme northern zones. Although the mid
level remains cool...overall CAPE values will be limited and less
than today with values closer to 1500 J/KG. This level of moisture
and CAPE are still sufficient for storm development but will
contribute to the overall reduced coverage of 20 percent PoPs.

A blend of MOS guidance was used for temps and PoPs. Temps will
be a few degrees above normal.

16

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
No major changes made to the extended forecast. Climo pops
continue through the extended period as a weakness in the mid-
level ridge keeps enhanced moisture over the region. Zonal flow
expected by late week, with convection triggering/focusing along
residual outflows and where weak impulses impact the area. Have
continued with largely good chance pops in the grids through the
weekend, with majority of convection being diurnally driven.
Temperatures will stay hot through the period, with highs in the
mid to upper 90s into the weekend.

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...

VFR conditions will prevail over the TAF sites through the
forecast period. Expect scattered thunderstorms to develop during
the max diurnal time period late this afternoon and continue for
a few hours. Generally a light west wind will prevail.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
Medium on TSRA chances.
High on remaining elements.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  94  73  95 /  30  20  10  30
Atlanta         74  92  74  92 /  30  20  10  30
Blairsville     66  86  66  88 /  30  30  20  40
Cartersville    71  90  71  93 /  40  30  20  40
Columbus        74  95  75  95 /  30  20  20  30
Gainesville     72  90  73  92 /  30  20  10  40
Macon           73  96  74  96 /  30  10  10  30
Rome            71  91  71  93 /  30  30  20  40
Peachtree City  71  92  71  93 /  30  20  10  30
Vidalia         75  95  75  96 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
301 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121915-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
301 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LA GRANGE...TO MACON....TO SWAINSBORO. ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
324 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

GAZ102-103-112000-
WEBSTER GA-STEWART GA-
324 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEBSTER AND SOUTHEASTERN STEWART
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 323 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WESTON...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LUMPKIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
PRESTON...RICHLAND...WESTON...TROUTMAN...KIMBROUGH...CENTERPOINT...
LEVERETTS...DUMAS AND CHAMBLISS.

LAT...LON 3192 8467 3193 8468 3192 8469 3192 8479
      3197 8482 3213 8466 3213 8443 3204 8443
      3204 8444 3193 8444 3192 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 242DEG 19KT 3193 8471

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
441 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

GAZ078-112115-
HARRIS GA-
441 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARRIS COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 440 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BEULAH...OR 8 MILES
NORTH OF SMITHS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
HAMILTON...PINE MOUNTAIN...WAVERLY HALL...RIVER VIEW...GOAT ROCK LAKE...
JONES CROSSROADS...MOUNTAIN HILL...BARTLETTS FERRY DAM...MULBERRY GROVE...
FORTSON...LAKE HARDING...F.D. ROOSEVELT STATE PARK...WHITESVILLE-PINE
LAKE AND CATAULA.

LAT...LON 3287 8511 3287 8475 3284 8470 3283 8469
      3272 8468 3271 8470 3261 8492 3261 8508
      3263 8508 3264 8511 3266 8509 3269 8512
      3271 8512 3274 8511 3276 8514 3278 8512
      3279 8515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 216DEG 27KT 3267 8509

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
510 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

GAZ066-112145-
TROUP GA-
510 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN TROUP COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
EDT...

AT 510 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER LAGRANGE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
LAGRANGE...HOGANSVILLE...HILLCREST...MOUNTVILLE...HARRISONVILLE...WARES
CROSSROADS...BAUGHS CROSSROADS...LOUISE...BIG SPRINGS AND SMITHS
CROSSROAD.

LAT...LON 3317 8509 3318 8506 3318 8505 3319 8503
      3322 8494 3323 8487 3322 8486 3320 8487
      3320 8486 3307 8486 3287 8497 3303 8515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 217DEG 25KT 3303 8502

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
602 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

GAZ032-033-044-112230-
COBB GA-NORTH FULTON GA-SOUTH FULTON GA-
602 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COBB...NORTH FULTON
AND NORTHERN SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 602 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
AUSTELL...OR 8 MILES WEST OF ATLANTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
ATLANTA...SANDY SPRINGS...SMYRNA...EAST POINT...MIDTOWN...WEST END...
VININGS...SIX FLAGS OVER GEORGIA...CASCADE HEIGHTS...CHASTAIN MEMORIAL
PARK...PIEDMONT PARK...BOLTON...SANDTOWN...BANKHEAD...ATLANTIC STATION AND
MABLETON.

LAT...LON 3373 8460 3373 8458 3375 8458 3391 8448
      3390 8435 3380 8435 3364 8454 3371 8461
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 211DEG 18KT 3376 8453