Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1245 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.Update...
Have updated pops to account for developing convection. Otherwise no
changes.

41

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
Potentially active convective day on tap for much of the outlook
area.

A frontal boundary currently stretches from coastal North Carolina
back through central Tennessee. This boundary is progged to move
slowly south today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop along and south of the boundary this afternoon. Strong
thunderstorms are likely...with a few severe thunderstorms possible.

Regional radar loop continues to show isolated showers and
thunderstorms moving SE in the flow early this morning. Most of
the activity has weakened as it approaches northern Georgia, but
cannot rule out a strong thunderstorm early this morning,
especially across far NE Georgia.

The hi-res models were in a little better agreement last
evening...and have begun to diverge a bit early this morning.
Overall, convective initiation should be around 16Z today and this
is pretty consistent among the HRRR and local runs of the ARW and
WRF. However, all of the hi-res models are developing convection in
different areas. The HRRR seems to develop convection along the
frontal boundary this afternoon. The ARW/WRF may actually be picking
up on the complex currently developing across southern MO...and
possibly firing convection on its outflow later this afternoon. The
ARW/WRF were developing convection more along the front in earlier
runs. Not very confident on which solution will actually play out,
so have kept pops in the chance range. Pops could later be adjusted
to accommodate any complexes approaching from the northwest or
clusters along the front.

The atmosphere remains very moist and unstable...so any
thunderstorms that develop will definitely have enough available
energy to become strong and/or severe. Flow aloft remains 25kt or
less and with PWATS between 1.5 and 2 inches, locally heavy rainfall
will definitely occur. Afternoon forecast soundings show a fairly
decent inverted-v structure with unidirectional flow...so damaging
wind gusts should the primary mode of severe weather. However, with
a 500mb trough swinging through the area this afternoon, this may
lead to a steepening of mid level lapse rates, increasing the
potential for large hail.

One more hot day on tap for the CWFA before temps return to more
normal values. High temps outside of mountains will be in the
90s...with middle to upper 90s possible in the southeast. However,
values may end up being tempered a bit, especially if precip
develops early in the afternoon. Temps on Saturday will mostly be
in the 80s...outside of the higher terrain.

Todays frontal boundary is progged to settle across south Georgia
or the Florida panhandle by late tonight or early Saturday. A drier
airmass will settle across the area north of the old boundary.
Models have been progging these frontal boundaries to make it much
further south than they have been lately, so the front may struggle
to push completely out of the CWFA.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
The last of the precip chances will be exiting or have exited
the area to start the long term as high pressure builds over
the area. The forecast will remain dry into Tuesday as a high
pressure pattern dominates most of this timeframe.

A surface trough ahead of an approaching cold front will affect
mainly N GA Tuesday night with the chance for showers and
thunderstorms and the chance for showers and storms will affect
N and central GA Wednesday into Thursday as an upper trough
moves across the area with the front moving into the area.

Temperatures will start out below normal but return to near or
slightly above normal Monday afternoon and beyond.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Convection should continue to develop on a southward sinking
boundary this afternoon and evening...affecting most of the taf
sites. Some storms expected to be severe.

Winds should remain on the west side through today and frequent
gusts to around 20kt are likely. Models are progging a wind shift
to the east overnight behind the front, increasing the potential
for a bkn deck of stratus overnight.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          95  68  83  60 /  20  10  10   0
Atlanta         92  70  83  64 /  40  10  10   0
Blairsville     85  62  81  57 /  10  10  10   0
Cartersville    91  68  85  62 /  30   5  10   0
Columbus        94  73  87  67 /  40  20  10   5
Gainesville     90  68  80  62 /  20  10  10   0
Macon           97  71  85  63 /  40  20  10   5
Rome            92  68  87  62 /  20   5  10   0
Peachtree City  93  69  84  61 /  40  10  10   0
Vidalia         97  72  84  64 /  40  30  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-181000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA ON SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED...BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
313 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

GAZ053-054-171945-
COWETA GA-FAYETTE GA-
313 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN COWETA AND SOUTHWESTERN
FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 313 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PEACHTREE CITY...OR 9
MILES EAST OF NEWNAN...MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD
           TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...TYRONE...SENOIA...LUTHERSVILLE...BROOKS...
SHARPSBURG...TURIN...HARALSON...STARRS MILL AND THOMAS CROSSROADS.

LAT...LON 3343 8470 3346 8456 3327 8443 3326 8443
      3326 8450 3325 8451 3322 8451 3322 8465
      3323 8465 3322 8469 3323 8470 3323 8471
      3322 8472 3322 8475
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 341DEG 26KT 3340 8464

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
337 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

GAZ053-054-056-067-068-172000-
SPALDING GA-COWETA GA-PIKE GA-FAYETTE GA-MERIWETHER GA-
337 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SPALDING...
SOUTHEASTERN COWETA...PIKE...SOUTHERN FAYETTE AND NORTHEASTERN
MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 336 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR SUNNY SIDE TO HARALSON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
GRIFFIN...ZEBULON...BROOKS...WILLIAMSON...HARALSON...GAY...ZETELLA...
DIGBEY...HOLLONVILLE...HILLTOP...VAUGHN...ALVATON AND ROVER.

LAT...LON 3325 8459 3330 8432 3319 8424 3319 8425
      3310 8425 3303 8441 3305 8464
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 323DEG 23KT 3329 8435 3324 8457