Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
233 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Convection will continue across the CWA this afternoon and into the
evening hours. Hi-Res models show activity diminishing toward
midnight. The shortwave will move slowly across the CWA tonight and
will need to keep a chance of tsra through out tonight with the
higher pops across extreme north GA. Models differ on location and
intensity of the short wave for Wednesday but all agree that CAPES
increase Wednesday afternoon and with ample instability will
increase pops to likely across the entire CWA by Wednesday
afternoon. Activity will once again diminish during the evening. The
H5 ridge will develop over the middle of the country putting the CWA
in a northwest flow. This will push another short wave into the CWA
late Wednesday night. All models increase CAPES...and with plenty of
energy in the atmosphere will keep chance pops going across the CWA
Wednesday night with the higher pops across north GA closer to the
short wave. Guidance temps have been running 1 to 4 degrees too cool
for max temps and 1 to 2 degrees too cool for min temps. Will adjust
accordingly.

17

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Overall long term forecast trends look to be on track. Large
uncertainty with weekend model solutions continue with the GFS
abandoning the earlier solution of retrograding the mid-Atlantic
coast low over the southeast, while the ECMWF bombs out the low
and drops it over the South Atlantic Bight before lifting it
northward. Regardless of the differing solutions, have opted to
leave the current forecast in place, with the reasonable overall
trends consistent with neighbor views. Otherwise, have only made
minor adjustments to Day 7 into Day 8 and the occasional grid
here and there. Previous forecast discussion follows.

31

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 434 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016/
The extended forecast starts off with the upper level longwave
trough and associated wave sitting right over GA. This trough sets
up moist southerly flow keeping abundant low level moisture across
the area through Thu night/Fri morning. This will keep shower and
thunderstorm chances up through the end of the work week.
Instabilities through the week are very diurnal in nature and stay
fairly moderate so not expecting any major severe outbreaks...but
could see an isolated severe to strong storm or two each day
through Friday. By Friday night/Saturday...the ECMWF stays fairly
consistent in showing the longwave trough digging along the east
coast...helping to usher in drier air from the eastern Great Lake
states. The GFS shows the same longwave trough doing the same
thing but it wants to develop and upper level low over the central
great lake states that gets pulled southward Friday. This low
becomes centered over the Carolinas Sat...then moves into into GA
Sun. These are two very different outcomes so for now am leaning
towards the ECMWF because it has been more consistent. Will need
to watch further model updates to try and get a better handle on
this situation before making any changes in the forecast.

01

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Convection will continue to increase through the afternoon with
most sites seeing thunder at some point in the afternoon.
Convection will diminish tonight but not completely. There could
be isolated shra/tsra throughout the night...mainly focused across
extreme north GA. Expect widespread convection to develop by
Wednesday afternoon. Winds will remain southwest to west through
the forecast with cigs remaining vfr.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on timing of convection.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  90  73  95 /  50  60  60  30
Atlanta         73  88  74  93 /  50  60  60  30
Blairsville     69  87  68  88 /  50  70  70  30
Cartersville    72  88  73  93 /  50  70  70  30
Columbus        75  89  75  93 /  50  60  60  40
Gainesville     72  89  72  92 /  50  70  70  30
Macon           74  92  75  93 /  50  60  60  40
Rome            73  89  73  95 /  60  70  70  30
Peachtree City  72  89  73  93 /  50  60  60  30
Vidalia         76  93  75  92 /  40  60  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
245 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

GAZ025-027-036-141915-
MADISON GA-CLARKE GA-JACKSON GA-
245 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...CLARKE AND
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 245 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER ATHENS-CLARKE
COUNTY... OR NEAR ATHENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
ATHENS...NICHOLSON...WINTERVILLE...BOGART...COLBERT...HULL...ATHENS-
CLARKE COUNTY...WHITEHALL...NEESE...DIAMOND HILL...BEECHWOOD
HILLS...BEAR CREEK RESERVOIR...WESTGATE PARK...SANDY CREEK
RECREATION AREA...STATE BOTANICAL GARDEN OF GA...JAMES HOLLAND YOUTH
SPORTS CMPX...BARRETTS MILL AND OCONEE HEIGHTS.

LAT...LON 3402 8319 3400 8322 3401 8324 3400 8327
      3398 8327 3396 8326 3395 8328 3389 8337
      3393 8342 3392 8345 3393 8347 3393 8351
      3398 8354 3417 8336
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 229DEG 10KT 3394 8344

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
313 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

GAZ045-046-048-057-141945-
DEKALB GA-HENRY GA-NEWTON GA-ROCKDALE GA-
313 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DEKALB...NORTHERN
HENRY...NORTHWESTERN NEWTON AND ROCKDALE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 313 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LITHONIA TO COVINGTON...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH...PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
CONYERS...COVINGTON...AVONDALE
ESTATES...OXFORD...LITHONIA...BELVEDERE PARK...GEORGIA INTERNATIONAL
HORSE PARK...LAKEVIEW ESTATES... CANDLER-
MCAFEE...SNAPFINGER...ARABIA MOUNTAIN...BELMONT...ALMON...
MILSTEAD...PANOLA MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...RICHARDSON PARK...GUM
CREEK... REDAN AND PANTHERSVILLE.

LAT...LON 3371 8386 3367 8380 3356 8394 3359 8419
      3376 8427
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 232DEG 21KT 3365 8418 3360 8388

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