Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
127 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 434 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
The latest mid and upper level analysis still shows ridge axis over
the area which has largely suppressed activity the last few days
and allowed temps to approach record values. It looks though that
we will be entering a period of transition as aforementioned ridge
shifts east and is replaced by more of a weakness than any well
defined shortwave.

The departure of the ridge and an increase in low level moisture
should allow for more robust convection today as far as areal
coverage is concerned. CAPE values look to increase to around 2000
to 2500 J/KG today although it may be late awaiting the departure
of the ridge. Limiting factor will be the mid level lapse rates
which will struggle once again today as 500mb temps hover right
around -6C. This may limit the overall strength of the storms but
still expect an isolated storm to go severe and coverage should
not be affected and will go likely for most areas.

A more well defined shortwave will move through Tue night and Wed
with continued increased moisture values as evidenced by
precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches. Because of this
and the timing of the shortwaves...this activity looks to be
decidedly non diurnal in nature. Will therefore keep some pops
into the overnight period Tue night but still carry the highest
pops through Wed afternoon. Again expect lack of strong lapse
rates combined with limited heating due to debris clouds to limit
overall severe threat.

Deese

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
The extended forecast starts off with the upper level longwave trough
and associated wave sitting right over GA. This trough sets up
moist southerly flow keeping abundant low level moisture across
the area through Thu night/Fri morning. This will keep shower and
thunderstorm chances up through the end of the work week.
Instabilities through the week are very diurnal in nature and
stay fairly moderate so not expecting any major severe
outbreaks...but could see an isolated severe to strong storm or
two each day through Friday. By Friday night/Saturday...the ECMWF
stays fairly consistent in showing the longwave trough digging
along the east coast...helping to usher in drier air from the
Eastern Great Lake States. The GFS shows the same longwave trough
doing the same thing but it wants to develop and upper level low
over the central great lake states that gets pulled southward
Friday. This low becomes centered over the Carolinas Sat...then
moves into into GA Sun. These are two very different outcomes so
for now am leaning towards the ECMWF because it has been more
consistent. Will need to watch further model updates to try and
get a better handle on this situation before making any changes
in the forecast.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Convection will continue to increase through the afternoon with
most sites seeing thunder at some point in the afternoon.
Convection will diminish tonight but not completely. There could
be isolated shra/tsra throughout the night...mainly focused across
extreme north GA. Expect widespread convection to develop by
Wednesday afternoon. Winds will remain southwest to west through
the forecast with cigs remaining vfr.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on timing of convection.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          96  73  92  73 /  60  50  60  60
Atlanta         93  75  89  74 /  60  50  60  60
Blairsville     88  67  85  69 /  60  50  70  70
Cartersville    93  71  89  72 /  60  50  70  70
Columbus        93  75  90  74 /  60  50  60  60
Gainesville     93  73  87  73 /  60  50  70  70
Macon           96  74  91  73 /  60  50  60  60
Rome            93  72  90  73 /  60  60  70  70
Peachtree City  93  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  60
Vidalia         96  76  92  75 /  50  40  60  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
503 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-150915-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
503 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE BEST TIME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE BETWEEN 2PM
AND 10PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
114 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

GAZ001-002-141745-
DADE GA-WALKER GA-
114 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DADE AND NORTHERN
WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

AT 114 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN...OR
NEAR TRENTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING.  WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FORT
OGLETHORPE...LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN...CHATTANOOGA VALLEY...MORGANVILLE...
WILDWOOD...HOOKER AND FAIRVIEW.

LAT...LON 3498 8527 3493 8527 3486 8541 3489 8546
      3498 8545
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 212DEG 9KT 3491 8540

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
134 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

GAZ021-032-033-141800-
COBB GA-NORTH FULTON GA-CHEROKEE GA-
134 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COBB...NORTH FULTON
AND SOUTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

AT 134 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SANDY SPRINGS TO NEAR ROSWELL TO MARIETTA...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
           LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE MARIETTA...SANDY
SPRINGS...ROSWELL...ALPHARETTA...WOODSTOCK...FAIR OAKS... WHITE
WATER PARK...MOUNT BETHEL...KENNESAW STATE UNIVERSITY...SWEAT
MOUNTAIN AND SANDY PLAINS.

LAT...LON 3406 8459 3414 8440 3398 8427 3396 8431
      3397 8432 3397 8435 3394 8435 3391 8440
      3396 8448 3392 8459
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 204DEG 6KT 3394 8440 3403 8445 3396 8455