Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
250 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HI-RES MODELS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING TODAYS CONVECTION VERY WELL WITH
LOCATION AND AREA. MODELS ALL BRING A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THIS WAVE PULLS INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE NEXT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP GOING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

17

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. PERSISTENT ACTIVE
PATTERN AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE INTO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECT CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID TO
LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION. INITIALLY
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT TO THE NE...LEAVING A
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PULSES INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. BY MID
WEEK...A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW WILL DROP INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW...POPS TAPER OFF QUICKLY INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
OPTIMISTIC. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSITION OF BEST POPS AND THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL STABILITY STILL EXIST...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. UPSTREAM CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL STILL BE A BIG
PLAYER IN HOW MUCH PRECIP IS RECEIVED ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE STATE...KEEPING
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MOTHERS DAY
WEEKEND.

31/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE WHOLE AREA
SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT MVFR IN STORMS. OVERALL CIGS WILL
BECOME MVFR LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR IN MCN/AHN. CIGS WILL RISE
TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH MORE CONVECTION MOVING INTO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY WITH A FEW GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  81  63  84 /  50  60  60  40
ATLANTA         66  81  65  81 /  50  60  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     62  76  58  79 /  80  70  60  40
CARTERSVILLE    66  80  63  79 /  70  70  60  40
COLUMBUS        68  83  66  86 /  30  40  50  40
GAINESVILLE     65  78  63  80 /  70  70  60  40
MACON           66  84  65  86 /  30  40  40  40
ROME            64  80  63  79 /  70  70  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  66  81  63  82 /  40  60  60  40
VIDALIA         68  86  69  86 /  30  20  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
511 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-010915-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
511 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IMPACTING THE AREA. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS. PLEASE MONITOR UPDATES AS
CHANGES ARE LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
737 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

GAZ034-035-047-010015-
GWINNETT GA-BARROW GA-WALTON GA-
737 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GWINNETT...SOUTHWESTERN
BARROW AND NORTHERN WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 737 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER MONROE...MOVING NORTH
AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
WINDER...MONROE...BETHLEHEM...BETWEEN...NICHOLASVILLE...GRATIS...BOLD
SPRINGS...HARBIN...CAMPTON...WINDSOR AND FORT YARGO STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 3378 8370 3377 8380 3396 8392 3397 8362
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 177DEG 21KT 3380 8376

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
746 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

GAZ106-108-010015-
CRISP GA-WILCOX GA-
746 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CRISP AND SOUTHWESTERN
WILCOX COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 746 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR PITTS TO 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF ASHBURN...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
ROCHELLE...PITTS...ANTIOCH CHURCH...DOUBLE RUN...HATLEY...OWENSBORO AND
SEVILLE.

LAT...LON 3187 8365 3210 8357 3186 8325 3185 8327
      3185 8361 3184 8361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 214DEG 17KT 3189 8360 3178 8348