Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
250 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HI-RES MODELS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING TODAYS CONVECTION VERY WELL WITH
LOCATION AND AREA. MODELS ALL BRING A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THIS WAVE PULLS INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE NEXT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP GOING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

17

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. PERSISTENT ACTIVE
PATTERN AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE INTO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECT CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID TO
LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION. INITIALLY
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT TO THE NE...LEAVING A
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PULSES INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. BY MID
WEEK...A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW WILL DROP INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW...POPS TAPER OFF QUICKLY INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
OPTIMISTIC. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSITION OF BEST POPS AND THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL STABILITY STILL EXIST...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. UPSTREAM CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL STILL BE A BIG
PLAYER IN HOW MUCH PRECIP IS RECEIVED ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE STATE...KEEPING
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MOTHERS DAY
WEEKEND.

31/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE WHOLE AREA
SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT MVFR IN STORMS. OVERALL CIGS WILL
BECOME MVFR LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR IN MCN/AHN. CIGS WILL RISE
TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH MORE CONVECTION MOVING INTO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY WITH A FEW GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  81  63  84 /  50  60  60  40
ATLANTA         66  81  65  81 /  50  60  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     62  76  58  79 /  80  70  60  40
CARTERSVILLE    66  80  63  79 /  70  70  60  40
COLUMBUS        68  83  66  86 /  30  40  50  40
GAINESVILLE     65  78  63  80 /  70  70  60  40
MACON           66  84  65  86 /  30  40  40  40
ROME            64  80  63  79 /  70  70  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  66  81  63  82 /  40  60  60  40
VIDALIA         68  86  69  86 /  30  20  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
511 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-010915-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
511 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IMPACTING THE AREA. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS. PLEASE MONITOR UPDATES AS
CHANGES ARE LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
417 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

GAZ068>070-302045-
UPSON GA-PIKE GA-LAMAR GA-
417 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN UPSON...EASTERN PIKE AND
NORTHWESTERN LAMAR COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 417 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR THOMASTON...MOVING
NORTH AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING.  WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
THOMASTON...ZEBULON...MILNER...MEANSVILLE...THE ROCK...SUNSET VILLAGE...
LINCOLN PARK...LIFSEY SPRINGS...ATWATER...SUNNYSIDE...HILLTOP...HANNAHS
MILL AND PIEDMONT.

LAT...LON 3318 8444 3315 8417 3285 8427 3286 8443
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 182DEG 24KT 3294 8434

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
423 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

GAZ095-105-107-302100-
HOUSTON GA-DOOLY GA-PULASKI GA-
423 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON...
NORTHEASTERN DOOLY AND NORTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM
EDT...

AT 423 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR UNADILLA...OR 10 MILES
WEST OF HAWKINSVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING.  WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
PERRY...HAWKINSVILLE...UNADILLA...GROVE PARK...MOCK SPRINGS...CLINCHFIELD...
GROVANIA...ELKO...HAYNEVILLE...BROWNDALE AND KLONDIKE.

LAT...LON 3221 8375 3244 8377 3241 8349 3219 8354
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 186DEG 17KT 3227 8366

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
426 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

GAZ034-045-302100-
DEKALB GA-GWINNETT GA-
426 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DEKALB AND WESTERN
GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 425 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER AVONDALE ESTATES...OR
OVER DECATUR...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
DECATUR...LILBURN...CHAMBLEE...DORAVILLE...CLARKSTON...AVONDALE ESTATES...
PINE LAKE...NORTH ATLANTA...TUCKER...DRUID HILLS...NORTH DECATUR...NORTH
DRUID HILLS...BELVEDERE PARK...MOUNTAIN PARK...EAST LAKE...BROOKHAVEN...LA
VISTA AND SCOTTDALE.

LAT...LON 3392 8434 3391 8414 3375 8421 3375 8432
      3388 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 186DEG 16KT 3379 8427

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
432 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

GAZ004-005-302100-
MURRAY GA-WHITFIELD GA-
432 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MURRAY AND EASTERN WHITFIELD
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 432 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR DALTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
DALTON...CHATSWORTH...ETON AND DAWNVILLE.

LAT...LON 3468 8493 3472 8498 3495 8490 3479 8467
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 216DEG 23KT 3474 8491